Friday, December 12, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 12/11/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The finals were not too harsh to CBS adjustment-wise, leaving the network with some pretty favorable numbers in spite of a new season low for The Big Bang Theory (3.9). Mom (2.6) tied its season/series high, Two and a Half Men (2.3) and The McCarthys (1.6) both zoomed up to near their premiere numbers and Elementary (1.4) hit a new season high. The CW's night brightened further as The Vampire Diaries upticked to 0.9, putting both its dramas at a tie for their season highs. But Bones got no finals help, so the new season low 1.2 sticks.
  • As usual, any observations about Thursday's top-ranked lineup on CBS (including the return of The Big Bang Theory in originals) will have to wait for finals due to preemptions in both of the Thursday Night Football markets.
  • Though there's not much Thursday competition these days, not many shows stepped up:
    • NBC's regular series in the first two hours were back for the first time in three weeks; The Biggest Loser (1.1) tied its season low at 8/7c, though Bad Judge (1.1) hopped up in its first episode without Scandal competition. (Hey, maybe the Shonda audience would've been interested in a Kate Walsh comedy after all!) 
    • ABC's The Taste (0.8) inched down in week two.
    • Bones had another preliminary new low 1.2 (though the last one ended up adjusting up), while the Gracepoint finale (0.9) was even with last week but slightly above most of the middle of the run.
    • The CW perhaps fared best of all, as the fall finales of The Vampire Diaries (0.8) and Reign (0.5) were each up a tenth.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Taste 0.8 32% -11%-0.1n/a 2/2 n/a -6% -54% 1.0
How To Get Away With Murder (R) 0.5 27% -23% -84% 0.9
ABC:-11%-68%
The Big Bang Theory 3.9 32% -5%-0.2n/a 11/11 -24% +95% -24% 3.9
Mom 2.6 31% +30%+0.6+1.8 1/7 n/a +30% +0% 2.1
Two and a Half Men 2.3 31% +21%+0.4+0.6 2/7 +21% +21% +21% 2.0
The McCarthys 1.6 29% +14%+0.2+0.4 2/7 n/a +14% -16% 1.5
Elementary 1.4 23% +17%+0.2+0.2 1/7 -18% +22% -18% 1.6
CBS:+38%-11%
The Biggest Loser 1.1 32% +0%+0.0n/a 10/12 -42% -60% -19% 1.3
Bad Judge 1.1 37% +22%+0.2+0.0 4/9 n/a -56% +10% 1.3
A to Z 0.8 41% +14%+0.1+0.2 5/9 n/a -65% -11% 1.1
Blake Shelton's Not So Family Christmas 0.8 26% n/a -58% -36% 1.2
NBC:-60%-20%
Bones 1.2 28% -20%-0.3n/a 10/10 n/a -20% -4% 1.4
Gracepoint 0.9 28% +0%+0.0-0.3 2/10 n/a +6% +29% 1.1
Fox:-11%+8%
The Vampire Diaries 0.9 63% +29%+0.2n/a 1/10 -18% +20% -18% 0.9
Reign 0.5 45% +25%+0.1+0.2 1/10 -17% +11% -17% 0.6
CW:+17%-18%
Big5:-15%-27%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

51 comments:

Spot said...

Bones is really crashing and burning this season, they should probably wrap things up to avoid all out catastrophe next year

Spot said...

In other news, Thursdays look like a trash pit without TGIT. Save us Shonda!

Spot said...

I was about to make a similar comment. Looks awful

Spot said...

ABC must find another way to deal with the TGIT hiatus. Yes, this is still doing better than repeats, which means the split season plan is still producing better ratings even without accounting for the bumps that the TGIT shows themselves have from the better scheduling. But ABC must aim a little higher. I think that if brought back next year, the taste will be on repeats levels. Reality is probably the only way to go here, but they need a different reality show to put here, The Taste is not suitable.

Elsewhere, the CW had favorable half hours for both shows (0.9-0.9 and 0.6-0.5) so it's potentially looking at upwards adjustments in finals (or at least avoiding downard ones).

Bad Judge looks semi promising in the middle of that awful mess but it's too little, too late.

As for Bones, I think it's looking more and more iffy. TBBT is murdering it and I think it will be hard to make the financials work at this marginal level.

Spot said...

The Big Bang Theory basically flat versus last episodes that aired versus Grey's. It's only 1 data point, but now it's 99% sure my theory of Grey's being the biggest (though not only) factor in TBBT decline is wrong.
In the future, I'll try to restrain myself from stupid predictions. Which basically means from all predictions.
Except when there's Spot's Question when we are actually asked to predict.

Spot said...

If that's the case, I think we can safely say that the in-season move hurt it a lot. Which in turn means that CBS shouldn't do it again next year. And in a house of cards of implications, this means that if they get TNF again TBBT probably means to Mondays permanently.

Spot said...

I think it would have been up if not for the multiweek hiatus. Someone here said there would be Big Bang repeata until 2015 and I thought that was the case until I saw a little pop up in the corner advertising during Scorpion

Spot said...

I agree with all that and I don't know how it would work out but that's why I think CBS should probably don't get the TNF package again. But if they do, what do you propose? Another back and forth move of TBBT?

I think leaving out of the schedule until November is not an option for CBS.

Spot said...

I don't think they will cancel Bones. Because few days ago authors said they'll will write in Deschanel's pregnancy into the show. They might be jumping the gun there, but it's more likely Fox already hinted they want another season.

As for the size, I'm not sure at this moment. But what I would like Fox to do is to announce this: Friday with November premieres. MasterChef Junior / Bones ; with repeats scheduled until World Series.
Then if something at 8 PM Mon-Thu flops, they can plug-in MCJ there in November, like they did this season. And if some 9 PM show would flop, they can move Bones there in November, with burn off said failure on Friday.

Spot said...

If CBS gets Thursday Night Football again and The Big Bang Theory has the jerk-around treatment again, the sitcom needs to be scheduled better. Have dedicated multi-week runs instead of isolated episodes plopped into the schedule.

I don't mind CBS getting TNF again so long as the network gets the full schedule of games instead of just the first 8 weeks. It added another move to CBS' schedule that just makes it all feel it's in permanent flux for the season. I mean, look....

1. The Big Bang Theory move/2 Broke Girls returning to Mondays
2. The Millers being canceled/Mike & Molly returning to Mondays
3. The Mentalist replacing The Good Wife for a few weeks, then moving to Wednesdays
4. Undercover Boss coming in on Sundays, then moving to Fridays
5. Two and a Half Men being replaced by BBT reruns in February
6. The Odd Couple replacing Mom at 8:30 Thursdays
7. Mom replacing The McCarthy's at 9:30 Thursdays
8. CSI: Cyber replacing Stalker on Wednesdays in March
9. Battle Creek replacing CSI on Sundays in March

And I'm not even counting Survivor and The Amazing Race reclaiming their timeslots in the Spring, which would be an additional 2 moves.

This just stinks of desperation and reactionary moves.

Spot said...

Bones feels likely to get at least one more season since, as you've suggested, there's a lack of depth of full-season dramas on Fox (basically Gotham and Bones) so the schedule stability is brings is a plus. I don't know if it'll affect production this season or next season, though; if she waited through the first trimester to announce, then she may give birth in around May/June which is during the show's filming hiatus.

Either way, we've seen that Fox can do much worse with new shows (Red Band Society, Gracepoint, Mulaney, Utopia). So Bones feels safe unless this season's jerkaround is the final straw.

Spot said...

I'm not proposing anything until I see what pilots they ordered.
Now, if they're developing something similar to HIMYM, then why not for first 5-6 Mondays air this:
TBBT / for-CBS-young-skewing-new-comedy / Scorpion
That seems perfect, and I would take that risk.

But, if all they have is multicams with old people farting like The Millers, then I agree, why jerk around with TBBt when it obviously hurts it? Still, 2 episodes in week 1 to give some spark to Scorpion season premiere would be OK.

Spot said...

Possible schedule:

Mon: TBBT / young skewing new comedy / Scorpion / NCIS: LA
November: 2BG / new comedy (Mike & Molly if rookie fails)

Tue: NCIS / NCIS: NO / new drama

Wed: Survivor / Criminal Minds / new drama (or Cyber)

Thu (November):
TBBT / old skewing new comedy / The Odd Couple / Mom / PoI

Fir: TAR & Undercover Boss sharing timeslot / H50 / Blue Bloods

Sun: 60 minutes / Madam Secretary / The Good Wife & CSI sharing timeslot / Elementary

Spot said...

It was fall finale of The CW shows, so it would be rather sad if there was no spike. I mean, considering rather bad season both shows are having, rating wise and regarding big y2y drops.
However, it was even better in W18-34. Reign surged to 0.8 W18-34 (preliminary), to a season high, and 3 tenths up from last week's preliminary 0.5 (I don't have final number).
The Vampire Diaries did 1.3 W18-34 preliminary, just a tenth short of season high it got for its season premiere, and up 2 tenths from 1.1 preliminary it got last week (actually, 5 of its last 6 episodes got 1.1, with one at 1.0). .

When there's no football preemptions, usually either there's no adjustment in finals, either TVD gets 1 tenth on expense of Reign (in this case it would mean both shows tying their season highs at 1.4 / 0.7).

Spot said...

NBC has fianlly announced their mid-season schedule.
“The Blacklist,” Sunday, Feb. 1 following the Super Bowl. Moves to Thursday, Feb. 5 at 9 p.m.
“Allegiance,” Thursday, Feb. 5 at 10 p.m.
“The Slap,” Thursday, Feb. 12 at 8 p.m.
“The Night Shift, Monday, Feb. 23 at 10 p.m.
“Undateable,” Tuesday, March 17 at 9 p.m.
“One Big Happy,” Tuesday, March 17 at 9:30 p.m.
“A.D.,” Sunday, April 5 at 9 p.m.
“Odyssey,” Sunday, April 5 at 10 p.m.



Marry Me and About a Boy go on hiatus.


I'm actually not that surprised about Undateable.

Spot said...

I said that if Undateable was moved into the regular season, I'd pee my pants in laughter...my pants feel funny.

Spot said...

The Slap will get eaten alive by Grey's and TBBT.


And lol @ NBC bringing their summer shows in season.

Spot said...

NBC has run out of options, they are bringing their summer shows to regular season.


Unless they want Night Shift and Undateable to join their regular lineups by giving them post-Voice exposure, but both shows have short orders and are far away from syndication (Undateable ratings were terrible in summer).


No drama besides Allegiance stands a chance, Odyssey is buried on sundays, The Slap wll self start in an awful slot and bring terrible lead-in and Allegiance itself is against Murder.


No replacemente announced for Constantine, will it be more Dateline or will they rush Hannibal?

Spot said...

Press relase says: “Marry Me” and “About a Boy” will return later in the season.
Yeah, like The Michael J Fox show did.

I knew Undateable is starting shooting already in January, but I must admit I hadn't connect the dots. Not the shocker.

However, The Night Shift is shocking for me. I had no idea it will be ready so early,

Strange decisions to spill both A. D. and Odyssey into summer.

Aquarius not mentioned. Maybe it is planned for summer, or for next fall. Or production is late, so it's pushed for later date because of that. But if it is ready in March, it is possible it would go to Friday 10 PM.

Mr. Robinson changed format from singlecam to multicam, cast is changed, and pilot is reshoot this week - all in all, no wonder it's not scheduled yet.

Spot said...

I see why they would chose Undateable. It's the type of show with broad appeal and lack of overlap with New Girl. Parks and Recreation closes NBC's workplace comedy era, the family comedies all flopped, and relationship comedies are clearly not working. It also probably cost them nothing. That belng said, bringing summer into regular season is so desperate. And with multiple shows. Its almost Big Brother during writer's strike kinda of desperate

Spot said...

Yes, The Slap is doomed.
But if it was intended to be just a mini-series, (if it was genuinely limited series), then they don't care much. And, it could rate above 1.0, unlike their comedies or Hollywood Game Night. I mean, it could in theory, until proven otherwise (but it likely will be proven).

Spot said...

Spread picks for NBC's We are not Must See TV anymore vs ABC's TGIT:

Over/under 0.8 point advantage for Grey's vs Tthe Slap?
Over/under 0.7 point advantage for Scandal vs Blacklist?
Over/under 1 point advantage for Muder vs Allegiance?

Spot said...

Over a 0.8 point advantage for Grey's
Likely under between Scandal and TBL.
And I'm going over for Murder.

Spot said...

To expand on that...

I'm actually not that surprised about Undateable. NBC loves their "broad" comedy and Undateable is definitely a "broad" multicam! I guess this represents NBC's new comedy execs putting their stamp on the network, along with cancelling Kimmy Schmidt and Mission Control.

I'm more surprised by The Night Shift. It kind of makes sense, as NBC lacks a female-skewing Voice-compatible drama and, boy, do they love their safe procedurals these days. And NBC is definitely buying into giving their sophomore shows big timeslot upgrades.

It'll be interesting to see whether they work out as I'm not sold either show is "for real" rather than being minor summer successes. The Night Shift didn't do that well out of big AGT lead-ins and Undateable didn't do that well and benefited from proximity to TBBT.

People have been saying networks really need to support their multicams for them to succeed, which isn't something I've really bought into, but we'll now have a nice case study. I guess Undateable can't do much worse than their current single-cams.

Either way, it definitely feels like NBC doubling down on being CBS-lite.

I just don't see The Slap working. It's expected to self-start against an absolute ton of competition and it doesn't seem compatible with The Blacklist. I think it could get messy and fast, and I can't help but make comparisons with Gracepoint. But that's why they have Hollywood Game Night, I guess. And there's a high-profile cast (Uma Therman! Zachery Quinto! Brian Cox!) but we could have said that about several high-profile NBC bombs in recent years.

It's finally the end of NBC comedies on Thursday. Between it and CBS 9pm Monday, looks like this season is the year of ending long-standing comedy traditions.

Spot said...

I'm betting on ABC all the way, baby.

Spot said...

Over/under advantage is called "spread". Or "handicap". Anyway. taking Grey's (-0.8) vs The Slap with big confidence, like 2.1 vs 1.0 typically.
And HTGWM vs The Americans rip-off, too. Like 2.5 vs 1.3.
But taking Blacklist (+0.7) vs Scandal. Low confidence, something like 2.1 vs 2.7.

Spot said...

Okay, time to be serious. I think I like this...maybe. It's just so weird and in some ways pathetic. I kinda see why Undateable and Night Shift are in those slots since NBC's trying to be a part of CBS land, but neither really were all that successful in the summer, and unless The Voice is able to give those two a sophomore bounce and they give good promotion, but it's still something I'm not sure of.

Allegiance might edge out okay, unless Murder's a death star in the 10PM slot, The Slap looks to be DOA, but it's a miniseries, so no big harm. Well, unless this hurts Blacklist, but I'm still unsure what will happen in the new slot. :P

Weird to see AD and Odyssey going through summer, but NBC does diddly squat in the summer on Sundays anyway, so whatever. (And what goes at 8? Dateline?)

Overall...I have no clue what to think.

Spot said...

I think 7-9 PM Sunday will be Dateline and The Voice repeats.
But I have no idea what will be 9-11 PM until April, nor what will be 8 PM until The Voice cycle premieres.

Here's idea. Maybe they can repeat SNF games, sort of like ESPN Classic? I mean, if those would be Cowboys or Broncos games, those reruns would be more watched than the crap Greenblatt picks to series. Just kidding. Not the part about Greenblattpickin crap after crap.

Spot said...

I am not ofen very surprised with network announcements but i never thought they would bring their summer shows into the season with such proeminent (post voice!!) slots.

I am still processing but i think i dont actually dislike it. Its not like they had much to loose anyway (and on a personal level i really likes the night shift in the summer so i am happy for it). Its unusual but i can see the upside!

Spot said...

The big loss is opportunity cost, as they lose major at-bats after The Voice, and who knows how many of them they have left? It seems wasteful for The Night Shift, which already had a strong lead-in in the summer and didn't really perform well enough to justify a big upgrade.

Spot said...

Yes. But that took away maybe a tenth or two, while I missed prediction for almost a full rating point. I expected something like 4.8, and 4.5 in absolutely worst case.

Spot said...

I think the January airings will be more telling. Honestly, I think it is simply falling back after 2 seasons of growth and one of a very modest decline, it has to make a more regular decline sometime. And the Monday jerkaround seems to have simply accelerated it

Spot said...

Mr Robinson didn't even shoot a pilot as far as I'm aware, it was straight-to-series order for 6 episodes after the initial pilot for the previous season got scrapped entirely and rewritten.

Spot said...

Undateable and Night Shift were initially ordered as regular season shows though, surviving a summer burn off. It's not like bringing Taxi Brooklyn and Welcome to Sweden into regular season!

Spot said...

I'm not surprised by either of these. The Night Shift essentially reads as a variation on ChiFi, but in a hospital and in Texas. And we've seen how The Voice has helped ChiFi. Undateable, meanwhile, deserves a better chance than marooned on Thursdays and double-pumped against the NBA Finals. This is pretty much NBC's way of saying sorry to how poorly the show had it last time.

Since The Slap is only 8 episodes, they're going to need to put something on Thursdays in April. Is this where NBC will dump Marry Me & About a Boy? Or could Hollywood Game Night come back here?

Spot said...

I get launching A.D. on Easter Sunday. But it is odd scheduling: the last few episodes of it and Odyssey have to face Memorial Day weekend and then the NBA Finals.

Spot said...

They did shot singlecam pilot last spring.
They're shooting new multicam pilot this week. Coincidence.
.
They converted it after show's author Greg Daniels (The Office; Parks and Recreation) has severed ties with Universal TV. Greg went out of his deal with studio, as he was pissed off because Greenblatt turning down all his projects, and going broad direction instead (well, we see were it led NBC comedy department).
After it, they gave Mr. Robinson to some dunzos to turn it into laughing track crap, presumably to keep Craig Robinsom attached to the network. They had recast some (all ?) supporting roles, so maybe that's why it took them so long to start shooting the new pilot.

Spot said...

I had expressed hopes that NBC would air Undateable after AGT results show, but they took it up a notch!

Spot said...

I would have liked that too. A 30 minute AGT results show leading into this would have been a much better idea than this. I

Spot said...

Over
Under
Over

Spot said...

Big Bang below a 4 and it's not even spring yet, and it's not even facing Grey's Anatomy, but instead, THE TASTE!

CBS just damaged their biggest show.

Spot said...

Wow, that 1.4 is actually Elementary's season high? That's helluva bad season.
Speaking of awful, TBBT at 3.9 only? I wouldn't be surprised Modern Family beats in some week(s) this season.
The CW is mixed bag: Nice spikes, but those season-highs are actually matching last fall's lows, And usual spring ratings declines are still to come.

NBC midseason schedule is the most desperate schedule ever. This is not about ratings, this is not about what's the best for the network. This is simply about Bob Greenblatt and Jennifer Nicholson-Salke saving their asses. Which would be in danger if their face saving renewal(s) would be Marry Me and/or Laura and/or State of Affairs. So they're now desperately looking for something, anything, that they can present as well deserved renewals from this disastrous NBC season.

At least Katherine Heigl can now resume her wildly successful movie carrier. /sarcasm

And maybe NBC will give us mini-marathons of failed comedies at Sundays before April, so meager viewership will be able to find out "Will He Freakin Marry Her ?", or "What the Heck is with That Boy, Anyway ?".

Spot said...

I see two options:
A. Maybe Odyssey has 10 episodes only, so they plan 2-hours finale of A. D. at June 14.
B. NBC is run by morons of biblical proportions.

What would be your choice?

Spot said...

Those are not mutually exclusive options.


And I see what you did there. Very punny.

Spot said...

Possibly the most drawn-out process of producing 6 episodes of a show ever haha! I am more a single-cam fan, but I still love re-watching Frasier and this has one of the leads from that show now, so I'll give it a try when it eventually airs.

Spot said...

Last winter I suggested NBC to try Night Shift / Community / P&R / Parenthood in late March on Thursday (The Night Shift had only 8 episodes first season). My logic was:
1. At 8 PM Night Shift would avoid, at that time 9 PM show, Grey's.
2. Comedies would go against lower rated CBS comedy block.
3. It was a "free play", with night averaging around 1.0 and abysmal 9 PM comedy block being at around 0.7, they'd stand nothing to lose with mixing up things a bit.

But they pushed it to summer. And now that morons, whom didn't want to give the show a fair chance last spring, are giving their strongest lead-in to the very same drama.

Spot said...

Deadline reports Criminal Minds will air backdoor pilot for planned spinoff later this season.
The spinoff will focus on a division of the FBI. It will follow FBI agents helping American citizens who find themselves in trouble abroad.

Then I would name it:
Criminal Minds: Lost in Translation.

Spot said...

I can see why they did. Similar concept made by different people really didn't work for Stalker, but I bet it getting picked has more to do with whether CSI: Cyber does anything at all

Spot said...

Yep, they are gambling with this and Cyber.


If Cyber does well, it stays on wednesdays, if it doesn't, Lost in Translation takes the spot by september.

Spot said...

I'll be word police. Again. Sorry.
By "gambling" you actually mean "hedging their bets", right?

Spot said...

Yes.

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