Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Monday 12/15/14

  • FINALS UPDATE: Football took a tenth away from every ABC/NBC program, leaving The Voice (2.8) down 15% year-to-year and State of Affairs at a new low 1.5. Also, Jane the Virgin failed to hold onto the preliminary 0.6, but was still even week-to-week with a worse lead-in.
  • The CW went with a one-week preview of Hart of Dixie (0.4), which moves to Friday in January, at the same number it posted for almost every Monday airing last season. It was upstaged by a promising fall finale uptick for Jane the Virgin, which registered its first 0.6 since the series premiere (provided it holds in finals).
  • NBC had the fall finale of The Voice (2.9) and another 1.6 for State of Affairs, but they may drop a bit in finals due to a Monday Night Football preemption. The Voice should be up at least a bit week-to-week, but it'll be well below last year's 3.3 fall finale. 
  • ABC's The Great Christmas Light Fight (1.5) is also sweating a preemption, but it seems to have fared better against The Voice's finale than it did last year (1.0).
  • Fox had the newly renamed American Country Countdown Awards (0.9), down a third from last year's American Country Awards (1.4 on 12/10/13). 
  • CBS was all original again and saw a 0.1 uptick for 2 Broke Girls (2.1) and 0.1 drops for Mike and Molly (1.8) and Scorpion (2.0).


A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Great Christmas Light Fight 1.4 34% -18%-0.3n/a 2/2 +40% -18% +47% 1.5
Castle (R) 1.0 28% -29% +0% 1.2
2 Broke Girls 2.1 34% +5%+0.1n/a 3/7 -9% +5% -22% 2.1
Mike and Molly 1.8 29% -5%-0.1+0.1 2/2 -18% -5% -22% 1.7
Scorpion 2.0 25% -5%-0.1-0.1 9/12 n/a -5% -2% 2.0
NCIS: Los Angeles 1.6 21% +0%+0.0-0.1 5/11 -33% +0% +33% 1.6
The Voice Mon 2.8 29% +12%+0.3n/a 10/13 -15% +12% -15% 2.7
State of Affairs 1.5 31% -6%-0.1+0.3 4/5 n/a -6% -25% 1.4
American Country Awards 0.9 34% -36% +80% -25% 1.0
Hart of Dixie 0.4 42% n/an/an/a 1/1 +0% -33% +0% 0.4
Jane the Virgin 0.5 50% +0%+0.0-0.2 2/9 n/a +0% +25% 0.6

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.


Spot said...

It didn't look like the retention numbers for SOA that second half hour were very good.

Spot said...

During last night's Mike & Molly they explicitly stated that it was airing next week, on the 22nd after a Big Bang repeat. Interesting strategy CBS

Spot said...

CW press release says Jane hit a new series high among W18-34, 0.8.
That's exactly the same as Reign fall finale ratings.

If both shows would average 0.8, then I would expect The CW to renew both, those would be acceptable ratings for CW. But averages are not good, Jane is at 0.63 now, and Reign only at 0.56 only. That is the reason I expect CW to cancel one of those two female demos friendly shows. My logic is this:
CW could find room on their next season's schedule for both Jane and Reign if ratings were any good (though maybe one would go to Friday and/or to midseason). As ratings are not good, I'm pretty sure one of two will be axed. But exactly one, not both to be cancelled, because it would mean too many new shows next season (given their limited budget).

I didn't said anything about 25%. I said Jane would need to beat Reign by more than 1 tenth in average ratings, but that 2 tenths would surely be enough. So I've set provisional line at 0.15. However, at those 0.6ish ratings, 0.15 is indeed 25%, so I can see where are you coming from.

Spot said...

And at 29th too They announced it few days ago.
It will mean 4 episodes in December + 18 in 2015 (there's 19 in-season Monday, but NCAA Championship game takes one).

This means they don't want to double up Mike&Molly on any Monday in 2015, for whatever reason. Maybe 2 Broke Girls has 24 or 25 episodes order? If true, then they wouldn't be able to do it anyway. I always assumed 2BG is 22 episodes, but now I'm not sure anymore.

Spot said...

Past seasons of 2 Broke Girls have been 24 episodes. Though it hasn't been announced, I'm assuming 24 episodes this year as well and 22 for M&M. Which means for the remaining 20 in-season Mondays:

17 episodes of 2 Broke Girls
18 episodes of Mike & Molly
1 NCAA Championship Game

Except for one week somewhere, CBS can go almost rerun free Mondays at 8:00. And I almost expect that week to be the final one of the season (May 18) to avoid the DWTS and The Voice performance finales. CBS has wrapped up its season early on some nights in years past, so it's not uncommon.

Spot said...

Past seasons 2 Broke Girls didn't premiere in late October.

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