Monday, December 1, 2014

First Two Weeks, State of Affairs


WEEK ONE 
Rating: 2.2
Lead-in: The Voice (3.1 overall, 3.0 at 9:30)
Competition: Castle (1.8), NCIS: Los Angeles (1.7).

WEEK TWO
Rating: 1.4 (-36%)
Lead-in: The Voice (2.6 overall)
Competition: Castle (1.7), NCIS: Los Angeles (1.5).

Note: in week two, there was an approximately 15-minute interruption starting at 10:07 ET/9:07 CT for a presidential address. The show resumed at the point of the interruption and finished after the end of primetime.

Will this show get a second season? You make the call!

To play the game, here are your submission choices:
1) "Renew (Not Confident)" or "Cancel (Not Confident)": +1 point for a win, 0 points for a loss.
2) "Renew (Confident)" or "Cancel (Confident)": +2 points for a win, -2 points for a loss.

These choices must be locked by Tuesday, December 2 at 6:00 am ET.

3) You may also guess "Renew" or "Cancel" after the deadline, up to exactly one week later. ALL guesses in this period will be worth +1 point for a win and -1 point for a loss. You can NOT change a guess after the deadline if you submitted before the deadline.

52 comments:

Spot said...

Cancel (confident) - if it's already floundering with the Voice lead-in, it'll collapse without it.

Spot said...

Even under the circumstances, that week 2 drop is just too big to ignore. NBC have enough drama options anyway.



Cancel (Confident).

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (confident).


The pity renewal for NBC dramas will likely be awarded to a midseason one, either Allegiance or a post-Voice drama, if it goes to a fall show, Laura takes it.

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

Spot said...

Without the voice, holiday programming and the apprentice won't help. Want to think it will but feels like it just won't be enough.

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

Spot said...

Yup. I'm actually pretty confident TMOL will be renewed.

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

I was going to go not confident since I've been getting bad luck with bubble shows like Madam Secretary and Laura actually doing above average. However, there is the deep drama pool of midseason. Allegiance has post-Blacklist, and Odyssey and/or Aquarius could get a huge push as well. And Mysteris of Laura could earn it if NBC's desperate, since that show's lead-in is local programming while SofA has the biggest show on the Peacock Network behind it.

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

Spot said...

Who knows, maybe it can bounce back. But I'm gonna go Cancel (Confident), the drop is too huge to ignore.

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

Spot said...

If NBC really believed in the show it would have premiered earlier in the season when The Voice was stronger, or at midsession proper to fully air in tandem with the reality show. This betwixt scheduling suggest it's more about preparing The Blacklist the best way possible for Thursday and then just hoping State of Affairs doesn't immediately pull a Smash. And much like Constantine, there's no point in deferring unless you expect a 100% rebound in Week 3.

Cancel (Confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

Spot said...

Defer

I do believe it will be cancelled, but SofA is the highest rated out of NBC 3 rookie dramas. And, iit's not impossible it would remain so after 3 remaining air (Aquarius / Odyssey / Allegiance). I think there's less than 50% chances for it to happen, but there is some chance.
I want to see what ratings it gets tonight, and where NBC schedules its 2nd part of season. Then I might change my opinion about what has more than 50% chances, and what hasn't.

Spot said...

cancel confident

Spot said...

I competely agree with that, if nbc believed the show had a shot they would have put it along with the voice, not at its lowest ratings, holiday and the apprentice. i think they had their shot for the premiere episode. A lot of critics said it was good for a sampling and general reviews are either still out(waiting for it to get better) or have already decided.

Spot said...

I think everyone should get a "free" defer here, but either way Cancel (Confident). It went from first to third in its timeslot in a week

Spot said...

cancel confident

Spot said...

Cancel Confident

Spot said...

Cancel Confident

Spot said...

The Odd Couple is starting to feel more and more like a FWBL type of thrown away at season's end than like CBS's next big comedy hope that will get the big bang lead-in. If it's not production issue like you wisely suggest, then I think Mom will have to take a small hiatus. Maybe they do:

- TBBT| Mom | Two and a Half Men | The McCarthys (what is now)
- TBBT | Odd Couple | Two and a Half Men | The McCarthys (Mom on short hiatus, like 3 weeks or so)
- TBBT | Odd Couple | Two and a Half Men | Mom

If it's this, then CBS really is going out of their way to abolish repeats from their schedule.

Spot said...

Yes, that is likely that. Because of oddly number of 2 episodes ordered. The dates are:
2/12/2015 Thu 8:30 PM - The Odd Couple premiere
2/19/2015 - The McCarthys series finale
2/26/2015 Thu 9:30 PM - Mom timeslot premiere
5/21/2015 season finales (TAAHM could be earlier, especially if it doesn't have 24 episodes like TBBT and Mom)

It perfectly fits, and CBS achieves multiple goals.

1 Give CBS owned The Odd Couple gets TBBT lead-in.
2. Minimize repeats.

One more note.. If The McCarthys would collapse, CBS would pull last few episodes off schedule, and air Mom repeats at 9:30 PM. To get audience used on timeslot change.

Spot said...

I think there is something off with your calculations, it doesn't perfectly fit.




If the Odd Couple has 13 episodes, it has to premiere 05/02 and not 12/02. The last Thursday of the season is 14/05 and there are two March Madness preemptions on 19/03 and 26/03 so that's the only to air all 13 episodes in the timeslot during season (unless they do a one hour finale after Men ends or something).


But I don't see how you say that it all perfectly fits unless I am missing something. Mom will be missing 2 episodes and I don't actually believe that CBS would be crazy enough to give 2 extra episodes to McCarthys instead of giving them to Mom. Help me out here:
- By the end of the fall, Mom will have aired 8 episodes (the 5 it has alreayd aired, plus one on 04/12, one one 11/12 and one on 18/12). It could then air 4 episodes at 8h30 in January. That's 12.
- The McCarthys will have aired also 8 episodes at the end of the fall, on the same dates as Mom. That's 7 missing from its order. The sooner they can finish that is 19/02, so Mom could only come back 26/02 (after three weeks not airing).
- After that (and including the week of 26/02), there are only 10 weeks or Mom to air (due to the two March Madness preemption weeks), so Mom would only air for 22 episodes.


Again, a 22 episode order for Mom wouldn't surprise me, but it would shock me if CBS was putting Mom on hiatus during February sweeps instead of giving it two extra episodes while giving the mccarthys two extra epsiodes. Don't you think?

Spot said...

Scratch what I had written about the voice. I was confused about the season. For Monday-Wednesday shows, there is one extra week in the season. So this premiere week for the voice perfectly fits all 13 weeks of the show and a new drama on Mondays. I think this will be NBC's Spring schedule for Mondays and Tuesdays:

Monday: 23/02: The Voice premiere + Odissey (or Aquarius) premiere. Both run straight through for 13 weeks and end on the last Monday of May sweeps.

Tuesday. More confusing but I expect this:
- 06/01: About a Boy 2x08 + About a Boy 2x09 + Marry Me 1x08 + About a Boy 1x10
- 13/01: Parks and Recreation + Parks and Recreation + Marry Me 1x09 + About a Boy 1x11
- 20/01: Parks and Recreation + Parks and Recreation + Marry Me 1x10 + About a Boy 1x12
- 27/01: Parks and Recreation + Parks and Recreation + Marry Me 1x11 + About a Boy 1x13
- 03/02: Parks and Recreation + Parks and Recreation + Marry Me 1x12 + About a Boy 1x14
- 10/02: Parks and Recreation + Parks and Recreation + Marry Me 1x13 + About a Boy 1x15
- 17/02: Parks and Recreation + Parks and Recreation + Marry Me 1x14 + About a Boy 1x16

- 24/02: The Voice Premiere: Blind Auditions (Part 2) + Parks and Recreation + Parks and Recreation
- 03/03: The Voice: Blind Auditions (Part 4) [2 hours]
- 10/03: The Voice (Part 6, since Part 1 is just one hour) + The Voice (Best of Blinds)
- 17/03: The Voice (Battle Rounds, Part 2) [2 hours]
- 24/03: The Voice (Battle Rounds, Part 4) [2 hours]
- 31/03: The Voice (Knockouts, Part 2) [2 hours]
- 07/04: 24/03: The Voice (Live Playoffs Part 2) [2 hours]

- 14/04: The Voice (Top 12 Elimination) + Marry Me 1x15 + About a Boy 1x17
- 21/04: The Voice (Top 10 Elimination) + Marry Me 1x16 + About a Boy 1x18
- 28/04: The Voice (Top 8 Elimination) + Mary Me 1x17 + About a Boy 1x19
- 05/05: The Voice (Top 6 Elimination) + Marry Me 1x18 + About a Boy 1x20
- 12/05: The Voice (Semi Finals) + About a Boy 2x21 + About a Boy 2x22
- 19/05: The Voice (Road to Finals) + The Voice Finale [2 hours]


Also possible that from 14/04 to 19/05 (which are 6 weeks) they do Mr. Robinson and One Big Happy (both of which have 6 episode orders from what I understand) with the other comedies burned off on Saturdays and the voice road to finals clip show being preempted. It is also possible that from 14/04 onwards the comedies air at 8 and the voice at 9pm to help out chicago fire.

Spot said...

Monday: 23/02: The Voice premiere + Odissey (or Aquarius) premiere. Both run straight through for 13 weeks and end on the last Monday of May sweeps.

Tuesday. More confusing but I expect this:
- 06/01: About a Boy 2x08 + About a Boy 2x09 + Marry Me 1x08 + About a Boy 1x10
- 13/01: Parks and Recreation + Parks and Recreation + Marry Me 1x09 + About a Boy 1x11
- 20/01: Parks and Recreation + Parks and Recreation + Marry Me 1x10 + About a Boy 1x12
- 27/01: Parks and Recreation + Parks and Recreation + Marry Me 1x11 + About a Boy 1x13
- 03/02: Parks and Recreation + Parks and Recreation + Marry Me 1x12 + About a Boy 1x14
- 10/02: Parks and Recreation + Parks and Recreation + Marry Me 1x13 + About a Boy 1x15
- 17/02: Parks and Recreation + Parks and Recreation + Marry Me 1x14 + About a Boy 1x16

- 24/02: The Voice Premiere: Blind Auditions (Part 2) + Parks and Recreation + Parks and Recreation
- 03/03: The Voice: Blind Auditions (Part 4) [2 hours]
- 10/03: The Voice (Part 6, since Part 1 is just one hour) + The Voice (Best of Blinds)
- 17/03: The Voice (Battle Rounds, Part 2) [2 hours]
- 24/03: The Voice (Battle Rounds, Part 4) [2 hours]
- 31/03: The Voice (Knockouts, Part 2) [2 hours]
- 07/04: 24/03: The Voice (Live Playoffs Part 2) [2 hours]

- 14/04: The Voice (Top 12 Elimination) + Marry Me 1x15 + About a Boy 1x17
- 21/04: The Voice (Top 10 Elimination) + Marry Me 1x16 + About a Boy 1x18
- 28/04: The Voice (Top 8 Elimination) + Mary Me 1x17 + About a Boy 1x19
- 05/05: The Voice (Top 6 Elimination) + Marry Me 1x18 + About a Boy 1x20
- 12/05: The Voice (Semi Finals) + About a Boy 2x21 + About a Boy 2x22
- 19/05: The Voice (Road to Finals) + The Voice Finale [2 hours]


Also possible that from 14/04 to 19/05 (which are 6 weeks) they do Mr. Robinson and One Big Happy (both of which have 6 episode orders from what I understand) with the other comedies burned off on Saturdays and the voice road to finals clip show being preempted. It is also possible that from 14/04 onwards the comedies air at 8 and the voice at 9pm to help out chicago fire.

Spot said...

Messy and unnecessary complicated. You are one that seem to be confused.
13/01 to 17/02 Parks x 2 / One Big happy / About a Boy
24/02 Parks at 9 PM 1-hour finale (or 1 episode at 9:30 PM)
from 03/03 The Voice / Marry Me / About a Boy, except for weeks where The Voice is 2 hours

Mr. Robinson - summer, or directly to Netflix.

Spot said...

CBS will air originals at 05/21. Season technically ends a day earlier, Wed 05/20, but it really doesn't matter. I said "5/21/2015 season finales".

Mom = 24 episodes, I'm sure.
TBBT = 24 or 25, I'm not sure.
TAAHM = 22 or 24, I'm not sure.

Mom 24 = 8 episodes in 2014, 5 on 8:30 PM, 2 weeks hiatus, 11 on 9:30 PM.
Everything fits like i already said.

There will be 4 to 5 TBBt repeats, but that was a given. Plus, depending on order size, 2 to 4 repeats of TAAHM. But other 4 comedy slots would be repeat free with this 2 additional order, and unusual premiere date of Mike 6 Molly,

Spot said...

Where did you see that CBS will air originals 05/21? Not that it's impossible but they don't usually do so, so I don't think why they would bend over and do it this year just for the sake of freaking mccarthys.

Spot said...

I think it's about NBC publicly giving their sitcoms some support. NBC is a network that has had zero successful comedies in 5 years and they recently fired their head of comedy. They desperately need to buy goodwill from creators and actors.



I'd guess Fox is airing all of Mulaney for the same reason. The show is dead but they can point to it and say with a straight face "Hey, we tried!".

Spot said...

Yes, NBC fired Tal Rabinowitz in May. I'm glad someone besides me noticed it.

Anyway, I'm mentioning it because I believe that's the reason why they could cancel literally all their comedies this year - as now they have scapegoat in her. Otherwise, I'd be inclined to think NBC would give one face renewal, probably to Marry Me.

Spot said...

I don't think that The Taste is necessarily stronger than ABC's summer programming. Most of the shows that you highlighted are probably just not possible to launch for a Winter run. Extreme Weight Loss has a year-long lag in production, which is why it's always so early-renewed. Mistresses probably hasn't even completed its move to Vancouver from Los Angeles, let alone started production. Rookie Blue and Motive have both production issues and contractual things from the Canadian partnership that limit them to summer. Wipeout would be a possibility, but I think ABC's learned the lesson that two cycles of that show accelerated its decline.

I think for The CW especially, the traditional 88 episodes for syndication model should be gently tossed out the window. The streaming deals that they tout are more likely the way they go in the future since very few of their shows have been sold to a cable channel (the only one I can even think of is Gossip Girl; Supernatural originated as a WB show so I'm excluding that even if it's been on The CW for 9 years). I think CW shows are more likely to be sold to local stations or station groups than nationally in a deal, and my gut says they wouldn't "require" 88 episodes.

Spot said...

I agree the lower bang for your buck on reruns played a part, but special holiday programming has preempted reruns years in December for years. I'm sure if they had not run their seemingly annual multiweek run of out of timeslot Big Bang reruns, they would be holding off until January for Mike & Molly. I also think they don't CSI yet enough to have Good Wife reruns lead into it on an overrun day.

Spot said...

That's bunch of shows that network designated for the role of:
- midseason fillers
- replacement for what fails first
- combination of above

Networks randomly scattered those around their schedules, and those that will be back, next year will be thrown to some hole in the schedule again. Not very interesting, but I appreciate the effort, Spot.

Spot said...

You are completely right about The CW. However, you're wrong when you talk about those things in past tense.
CW had already tossed "88 episodes for syndication model" out.
For their CW shows, CBS/WB are already earning much more from Netfliy than they do from syndication.

Spot said...

I'm curious how long Melissa McCarthy's contract was when she initially signed onto the show. Usually they are 7 seasons long (occasionally 6) that the studio and actor will revisit it when it comes to compensation if the show's a big performer. I imagine that WB and CBS will be even more flexible with production scheduling to accommodate her if it means they can renew the sitcom (along with giving her more money).

Spot said...

Cancel (Confident)

Spot said...

Well, I was looking at Spot's TRUE and he seems to agree with you that summer stuff was truly stronger than The Taste for the most part. But I am still not really sure that 1.0s against strong Idol and the taste in the lead-off role can be seen as weaker than low 1s from extreme weight loss against no competition in the summer. Not that it matters much anyway. And for what's it's worth, I kind of like that they use the taste for this kind of role, though I am sure they wish they could develop something better. I think they should keep trying in the summer new reality shows; if one of them works, bring them back in this capacity (I imagine that was the goal of the quest or maybe even rising star).

Regarding the cw, I believe you are going to be proven right this year, year. I just like that we will have empirical evidence of the fact that the 88 don't matter. Sure, there is Nikita, but one can always point to that individual case as being the exception. I like that we will get two clear cases that show that those 88 don't matter so that we can adjust our thinking accordingly.

Spot said...

Despite the holiday specials, December still sees a lot of repeats. For instance, last year, during the month of December (and excluding Saturdays and Sundays 7pm):
- ABC aired 14.5 hours of repeats of its regular programming;
- CBS aired 33.5 hours of repeats of its regular programming
- The CW aired 14 hours of repeats of its regular programming
- FOX aired 47 hours of repeats of its regular programming
- NBC aired 12 hours of repeats of its regular programming.

Though FOX is by far the worse (especially considering they have one less hour to air repeats), that network is in no shape to invest in December programming (it can't even program Fridays and we can debate whether leaving Gracepoint and Red Band Society on for the whole fall can be called programming). However, the second network with by far the mos hours of repeats (CBS) is the one most seriously investing in programming for December (The Mentalist, Mike and Molly, Undercover Boss, CSI). In fact ,I would argue that we wouldn't be having this conversation were it not for CBS (The Taste is just filler and HOD is simply airing its premiere now, not actually running through the holidays).

[This analysis should probably be triggered to account for Christmas week only to better make my point but you get what I am saying]

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)

Spot said...

I would like I could answer you: "But this year CBS scheduling is nothing like usual. Besides, Thursday lineup was pushed back for 5 weeks because of football.".
But, yes, if The McCarthys would remain at 13 episodes, they could have season finales at 05/14. And, yes, finales at 05/14 would mean The Odd Couple must premiere at 02/05, a week earlier than I'm suggesting, .
On the other hand, they did ordered bloody 2 additional episodes. And that's what makes me thinking they would have season finales on 05/21. It's not that they announced it, it's just me comparing number of weeks against number of episodes ordered:

Spot said...

Cancel (not confident)

Spot said...

when does the spring scheduling come out?

Spot said...

Cancel

Spot said...

Cancel

Spot said...

Cancel

Spot said...

Of all 4 Sweeps periods, I tend to discount February the most. Whoever has the Super Bowl will win the month, which is a known fact. But also, CBS and ABC are guaranteed to win a week overall due to the Grammys and Academy Awards massively bumping up their averages, respectively.


ABC is the only network that's essentially going dormant on Sundays, too; Galavant's order is wholly contained in January, Resurrection could have its season end by the end of January since there's only 4 episodes left, and the network won't maroon Revenge with rerun lead-ins. As for NBC, its February Sundays are largely filler until they launch the midseason show they really want to (A.D.). CBS will just plug along with its old-skewing night.


Fox will be the most interesting just because it's the network left out of the Events this time around. And, really, I'm just interested in how many Family Guy originals will show up given the minimal presence the show's had so far this season.

Spot said...

The Big Bang Theory has 24 episodes this season. But they will air over 23 weeks of the season due to the one-hour premiere. 2.5 Men has seen its episode order shrink over the past few season, so I'm inclined to think it's 22 episodes.

As for the idea of CBS airing new episodes on the first day of the summer season, it's not unusual for a network to do that; Fox aired the season 3 finale of House on the Tuesday after Memorial Day. But another possibility is CBS only airing one week of March Madness games instead of two. I thought the contract with the NCAA for future seasons eventually migrated more games to Turner stations, so that could come into play. This is me guessing, though.

Spot said...

Yes, there's games on TBS, and from recently on truTV, too, They change that playoff schedule all the time. That's why always say 1 or 2 weeks of March Madness - I'm not sure what channel has what games anymore, and I'm too lazy to google it.

Spot said...

Cancel
NBC still didn't announce all of their midseason plans, but two days ago they did announce there will be State of Affairs original leading out of Saturday Night Live Christmas repeat at 12/22:
https://www.nbcumv.com/news/nbc-primetime-schedule-sunday-december-21-2014-saturday-december-27-2014

Well, that probably gives out their plain for State of Affair: 6 episodes in 2014, one week hiatus, 7 more episodes leading out of exactly 7-weeks Celebrity Apprentice. And then The Voice returns February 23 leading into premiere of some other drama.

And if it's in mid 1s after The Voice, out of Apprentice it will be at Laura level, in best case scenario. And there's 5 more drama to premiere (some are limited, but still), so, yeah, cancel. I'm pretty confident now, one week too late.

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