Thursday, December 4, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 12/2/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The Flash (1.6) adjusted up, now up 0.2 week-to-week and hitting its best rating since week two. Chicago Fire (1.7) adjusted up to round out a full night of week-to-week upticks for NBC, while Marry Me (1.3) dropped 0.1 in finals.
  • ABC got some of its best numbers of the season in the Tuesday 8/7c hour with new holiday special Toy Story That Time Forgot (1.9) leading into classic special A Charlie Brown Christmas (2.1). This was well behind the new Halloween-themed Toy Story special in 2013 (3.1), but Charlie Brown was up two tenths year-to-year. That added lead-in support plus perhaps some audience fleeing CBS repeats produced a positive night for the ABC dramas; Agents of SHIELD (1.8) had its best rating since the season premiere and Forever (1.2) snagged its best rating since late October.
  • A good night for superheroes continued on the CW as the first half of a crossover between The Flash and Arrow saw a small uptick for The Flash (1.5). Often it's the second show that benefits more in these situations, so we'll see what happens with Arrow, though last night's story on Flash was largely self-contained.
  • With CBS and ABC way down from last week (when CBS had originals and ABC a DWTS finale), there were also some minor upticks on the other original networks. The Voice (2.6), Marry Me (1.4) and About a Boy (1.1) all bounced back from last week's truly egregious numbers, but Chicago Fire (1.6) had no such luck (at least in the demo). MasterChef Junior (1.6) and New Girl (1.4) were up a tenth for Fox.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Toy Story that Time Forgot 1.9 36% n/a +6% +111% 1.9
A Charlie Brown Christmas 2.1 40% +11% +11% +163% 2.0
Agents of SHIELD 1.8 43% +13%+0.2+1.0 2/9 n/a -36% +44% 1.6
Forever 1.2 29% +20%+0.2+0.2 4/10 n/a -61% +14% 1.4
ABC:-35%+59%
NCIS (R) 1.4 15% -44% -10% 1.5
NCIS: New Orleans (R) 1.4 17% -39% +4% 1.4
Person of Interest (R) 1.0 18% -43% -20% 1.1
CBS:-42%-8%
The Voice Tue 2.6 29% +13%+0.3n/a 8/12 -24% +16% +27% 2.5
Marry Me 1.3 35% +18%+0.2+0.3 5/7 n/a +18% -61% 1.1
About a Boy 1.1 33% +10%+0.1+0.2 5/7 n/a +10% -69% 1.1
Chicago Fire 1.7 29% +6%+0.1+0.1 8/10 -26% +3% -26% 1.8
NBC:+11%-29%
MasterChef Junior 1.6 42% +7%+0.1n/a 3/5 n/a +7% +7% 1.6
New Girl 1.4 59% +8%+0.1+0.1 3/10 n/a +8% +56% 1.5
The Mindy Project 1.1 57% +0%+0.0+0.1 3/10 -8% +0% -8% 1.1
Fox:+6%+12%
The Flash 1.6 47% +14%+0.2n/a 3/8 n/a +19% +52% 1.6
Supernatural 0.9 49% +0%+0.0+0.2 4/8 -18% +0% -22% 0.7
CW:+11%+14%
Big5:-17%+1%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

13 comments:

Spot said...

Agreed. I was expecting mid 3's at least. Not enough promotion?

Spot said...

It got tons of promotion. CBS even delayed Rudolph a week for it!

Spot said...

I wonder if it has to do with the sheer glut of recurring Christmas specials overall compared to other holidays. Here's a by no means comprehensive list of them:

Toy Story That Time Forgot; Ice Age: A Mammoth Christmas; How the Grinch Stole Christmas; Shrek the Halls; A Charlie Brown Christmas; Prep & Landing; Prep & Landing: Naughty vs. Nice; Santa Claus is coming to Town; A Chipmunk Christmas; Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer; Hoops & Yo-Yo Ruin Christmas; Elf on the Shelf; Yes, Virginia; Frosty the Snowman; Frosty Returns.

And this list doesn't include the Christmas-related movies (It's a Wonderful Life, How the Grinch Stole Christmas), music specials (CMA Country Christmas, Christmas in Rockefeller Center, Home for the Holidays), one-off clip shows around a Christmas theme (SNL Christmas) or holiday-themed episodes of regular scripted shows.

By contrast Halloween and Thanksgiving have far fewer specials (mostly Charlie Browns) so newer ones like Toy Story of Terror have some ratings room to breathe.

Spot said...

You also forgot Grandma Got Run Over by a Reindeer...I don't get why they air it, but regardless.

Spot said...

I know this was six years ago, but look at the debut of Shrek the Halls. I don't see Toy Story being any less popular than Shrek. (Bonus points for comparison that ABC gave struggling Pushing Daisies a boost with the special just like Shield)
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2007/11/29/overnight-results-1128-shrek-the-halls/1952/

Spot said...

I deliberately left out CW holiday specials since they tend to not have any heat at all, But we could easily add Grandma Got Run Over By a Reindeer, Kung Fu Panda Holiday, Merry Madagascar, and the iHeartRadio Jingle Ball to the list.



Also left unsaid is how often all of these specials are repeated, too.

Spot said...

Shrek the Third had just come out that year, and this special was able to piggyback on the movie's release to DVD two weeks prior. So awareness of the franchise itself was very high.



Toy Story is a very popular brand, moreso than Shrek and its ebbs and flows in regards to its critical reception. But Shrek just had better timing.

Spot said...

You have a point. Upon further inspection, I see that 2 years later Scared Shrekless only did a 2.6. That's a -64% drop in 2 years. Funnily, in reverse as the interest in the Halloween special was much smaller. It should be noted however that they felt the need to put it against Charlie Brown.

Spot said...

I echo what Chris L said below. Timing of these specials also plays a factor. The less popular Charlie Brown Thanksgiving one did better airing before Thanksgiving this year. The more classic the classic like Charlie Brown Christmas (and next week's always huge Rudolph on CBS) plays very big into nostalgia with childless baby boomers and baby boom parents reliving their childhood memories, more so than the much newer Toy Story franchise (which are amazingly good).

Spot said...

I also blame it on Disney/Pixar running Toy Story into the ground. It's a terrific franchise, but enough is enough. One holiday special was okay, but two?

Spot said...

I have to disagree. Both of the specials have been fantastic and they were produced simultaneously.

Spot said...

My specials pitch has long been "It's a Leap Year, Charlie Brown". Sure, you can only show it every four years, but it'd be an event and you'd have no competition! And it's certainly less weird than Arbor Day and cancer.

Spot said...

Please don't pitch, "Stand Up to Cancer, Charlie Brown!" ABC might start taking it under advisement.

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