Thursday, December 4, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 11/27/14

  • FINALS UPDATE: Elementary (1.2) gained another tick, putting it at a tie for its season high.
  • It was a quiet Thanksgiving Thursday for CBS' original comedies, as Mom (1.6) was down nearly a full point, Two and a Half Men (1.5) nearly a third and The McCarthys over 20%. Normally they'd be expected to hold up better than this even on the viewing-depressed evening, but they had the double-whammy of also having to air for the first time after a repeat of The Big Bang Theory (1.7). As a result, the declines lessened throughout the night, culminating in Elementary (1.1) actually building by a tenth week-to-week.
  • NBC was an overwhelming #1 with NFL football, while Fox got what would be a pretty good rating out of two-hour special Cause for Paws (1.6). But based on the breakdowns (2.8 -> 1.5 -> 1.2 -> 1.0), it's pretty clear that the late afternoon NFL lead-in was of great assistance here and may have even run into the 8:00 hour. If so, it will adjust down. ABC was very quiet with a Robin Roberts special (0.6) and How to Get Away with Murder repeats (0.5/0.6).


A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Thank You America with Robin Roberts 0.6 21% n/a -75% -61% 1.0
How To Get Away With Murder (R) 0.5 27% -84% -52% 1.1
How To Get Away With Murder (R) 0.6 32% -81% -33% 1.2
The Big Bang Theory (R) 1.8 28% -55% -42% 2.0
Mom 1.6 28% -36%-0.9-2.3 5/5 -30% -36% -6% 1.8
Two and a Half Men 1.5 27% -32%-0.7-0.9 5/5 n/a -32% +36% 1.8
The McCarthys 1.1 26% -21%-0.3-0.7 5/5 n/a -21% -8% 1.4
Elementary 1.2 25% +20%+0.2-0.3 1/5 n/a +14% +20% 1.6
Football Night in America p3 4.4 42% +10%+0.4n/a 4/13 +54% +340% +76% 4.8
Sunday Night Football 7.4 41% -9%-0.7+0.4 8/14 +13% +598% +11% 7.7
Fox's Cause for Paws 1.3 36% n/a +30% +41% 1.6
Whose Line Is It Anyway? (R) 0.2 28% -75% -33% 0.3
Whose Line Is It Anyway? (R) 0.3 40% -63% +50% 0.5
Whose Line Is It Anyway? (R) 0.4 45% +0% +33% 0.6
Whose Line Is It Anyway? (R) 0.4 47% +33% +33% 0.5

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.


Spot said...

Survivor -12.5%, Criminal Minds -4%, Stalker, 0%, Elementary +10%. Great job of CBS staying strong in drama/reality.
Comedy, not so much.
Mom -35%, Two and a Half Men -32%, The McCarthy's -21%. Ouch!

Spot said...

With no Bones, Gracepoint, or How To Get Away With Murder, I watched the entirity of the CBS lineup. Saw Mom and Two and a Half Men for the first time this season. Saw McCarthy's for the first time and Elementary for the first time in 2 years. All were reasonably enjoyable, but not enough for me to come back. Weirdly, the McCarthy's was the most enjoyable last night!

Spot said...

I guess the huge promotion for Elementary helped...kinda. But next week will be rough again for CBS. Big Bang repeat again, and Peter Pan Live. I'm still confused over the Thanksgving airings. Do they have some big midseason plans happening Thursday where they have to run through their shows?

Spot said...

Last night was arguably a much tougher night than Wednesday IMO and the only drama airing last night lost its major drama competitor which also happens to be a big hit and was the sole drama airing on the slot (not to mention these are preliminary numbers that have been adjusted down before). The comedies also had a massive lead-in downgrade. So I wouldn't declare that comedies are holding up worse than dramas and reality to thanksgiving viewing depression.

Spot said...

I love Mom. It's such a different comedy from everything. I gave it a shot in the very end of summer (started watching it early september I think) and the first episodes were kind of meh but for some reason I decided to continue with it and at the end I really really enjoyed the first season. But I think Season 2 has been even better, the show has been hilarious and the performances top notch. But it's really not everyone's humor, it's the furthest thing from a broad comedy CBS probably ever had.

Spot said...

It's the only explanation. But if it is Cyber, just move Elementary to sundays and start the burn-off one season early. Unless it is Battle Creek, but they don't trust it and could easily go for the Bad Teacher route, airing Elementary alone and starting it in april (they'll cancel it anyway).

Their thursday fall finales are on december 18th, that means 8 episodes for each show, no thanksgiving would mean 7.

From january 1st to may 14th, starting on january 1st, there are 20 thursdays, they can use 18 of them due to basketball and I suppose their veterans have 22-episode orders, not 24

Spot said...

Wikipedia has Big Bang, Mom, and Elementary with 24 episodes. McCarthys, I assume, is 13, but it'll probably be gone when the new year arrives. 2.5 Men doesn't have an official order, but I'll assume it's 24 as well.

Spot said...

I have no clue what those midseason plans could be. Back when I thought they would keep the millers and would basically have to timeshare Mom, Men, Millers and Odd Couple on Thursdays I could maybe understand it, but right now it's really stupid to me.

Even if the Thursday shows all have 24 episode orders (which I doubt), they will still have one repeat in the Spring. And I think 22 episode orders given the late start and soft ratings is more likely anyway.

Spot said...

Thank you. Big Bang was the only one I was sure it had a 24-episode order.

They are very short with 26 thursdays available. That means only two repeats for shows not named Big Bang.

Spot said...

I expect Odd Couple to premiere 05-02 and to air 13 episodes repeat free until the end of May except for the two weeks of march madness preemption. Big Bang will be mostly originals during that time I expect (I would be surprised if there are more than 3 or 4 repeats and maybe there are only even two).

Spot said...

Thanksgiving Eve is harder for sure, but when the three dramas averaged 1.63 between the three last week and 1.63 between the three this week, while the comedies went from avergaging 2.07 between the three to 1.43 betwen the three. You can see there is a massive difference that can't be made up by difference of circumstance.

Spot said...

I generally like Mom. Anna Faris and Allison Janney are great in their roles, but I think the supporting cast is really lacking. I especially didn't like the daughter's boyfriend last season.

Spot said...

Well he is secondary, I really don't mind him. It's the kind of character which doesn't really make or break the show for me. I think her kids are generally okay actors though and I love the addition of Mimi Kennedy, not to mention the occasional guest star from Octavia Spencer.

Spot said...

Which new fall series would you consider the most successful? From most to least, I would rank:

1. The Flash
2. How to Get Away with Murder
3. Black-ish/ Scorpion/Gotham
6. NCIS New Orleans
7. Madam Secretary
8. Cristela
9. The Mysteries of Laura
10. Stalker
11. Jane the Virgin
12. Forever
13. Bad Judge
14. State of Affairs
15. Marry Me
16. The McCarthys
17. A to Z
18. Selfie
19. Manhattan Love Story
20. Red Band Society
21. Gracepoint
22. Mulaney

Spot said...

No big disagreements here. I'd consider Scorpion 3rd over Gotham because it was a success without a tie in to one of the most popular characters in US media.

Spot said...

1. How to Get Away with Murder
2. Flash / Gotham / Black-ish
5. Scorpion / NCIS: New Orleans
7. Madam Secretary
8. Red Band Society / The Mysteries of Laura / Cristela
11. Jane the Virgin / Stalker
13. The McCarthys / State of Affairs
15. Forever / Constantine / Selfie
18. Marry Me / Manhattan Love Story / A to Z / Bad Judge
22. Gracepoint / Utopia
24. Mulaney

Spot said...

So, ABC went from being the first network on Thursdays to being the fifth in a week's time. That's how you do it.

Spot said...

I'd put Murder and Flash on the same slot, perhaps.

Spot said...

No disagreement at all,

Average season for new shows, not terrible like 2010 and 2012 but worse than 2013.

Using plus we have this distribution right now (big 4 only):
Big hit: Murder (164)
Hit: Black-ish (143), Gotham (133), Scorpion (129)
Solid: NCIS: New Orleans (123)
Potential sub-solid renewals: Madam Secretary (84), The Mysteries of Laura (77) (after two episodes, State of Affairs sits at 99, but it is a small sample size and I don't see it getting renewed).
* Can we qualify Flash's 83 as a big hit for CW if this label existed?

This is a year we probably won't see any cancelation above a 100, since CBS declined to the point where their lowest rated shows aren't above the league average anymore, including their comedies. Funny thing is that FOX had a cancelation above it, this year, the whole network has 4 shows above that number, three of them on sundays.

NBC will probably only get a sub-solid renewal, in fact, since Heroes scored a 164 in 2006, they only have three renewals above 100, two of them last season (Blacklist and About a Boy), the other one is Revolution, so, no self-starter on NBC has gone above a 100.

Spot said...

I'd go with:

The successes

1. The Flash
2. How to Get Away with Murder
3. Gotham
4. NCIS New Orleans
5. Black-ish
6. Scorpion

The bubble

7. Madam Secretary
8. The Mysteries of Laura
9. Cristela
10. Stalker
11. Jane the Virgin
12. State of Affairs


13. Constantine
14. Forever
15. Bad Judge
16. Selfie
17. The McCarthys
18. Gracepoint
19. Red Band Society
20. Marry Me
21. A to Z
22. Manhattan Love Story
23. Mulaney

I'm giving State of Affairs the benefit of the doubt because of the small sample size and the funkiness on Monday.

Scorpion is the only success that I could realistically see dropping off and getting cancelled. It's still quietly bleeding viewers and I'm not sure Mike & Molly is such a great lead-in for it.

Stalker is the most underestimated show, probably because people don't like its content and nasty y2y comparisons with CSI. Retaining 70% of a hit at 10pm isn't horrible. Still think CBS will end up cancelling it, though.

Madam Secretary is the most overestimated show. It's doing okay and CBS probably sees its huge (and upscale) viewership as a boon to their syndication machine, but it's not an unambiguous success like it's sometimes made out to be.

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Spot said...

"'s pretty clear that the late afternoon NFL lead-in was of great assistance here and may have even run into the 8:00 hour."

Don't have a time for the end of coverage, but the Eagles' official Twitter announced the final score at 7:49 ET (tweeting #VictoryFormation a minute earlier), and the postgame contained the award of the player-of-the-game "Galloping Gobbler" trophy and (if memory serves) a "bite-sized" Nine-Nine. So Cause for Paws almost certainly started after 8 and will indeed be on for a chunky downward adjustment.

Spot said...

But was there The OT after the game, or some other post-game show?

Spot said...

I don't think it was a proper edition of The OT. I didn't watch, though. Either way, it went to commercial after the full-time whistle with Joe Buck trailing the Galloping Gobbler, and there were ad spots for a post-game "bite-sized" Nine-Nine. Even if the postgame show was literally those two things, with the commercials as well I'm sure those two went past 8pm.

Spot said...

The Good)
1.The Flash (self-starter, actually competitive with big 4)
2.How to Get Away with Murder (solid retention from lead-in, BIG DVR numbers)
3.Black-ish (solid retention from lead-in)
4.Gotham (self-starter, big DVR numbers)
5.NCIS: NO (solid retention from lead-in)
6.Scorpion (self starter)

The OK
7.Madam Secretary (big total viewers #)
8.The Mysteries of Laura (helping SVU)
9.Cristela (slightly better than the Neighbors)
10.Stalker (winning timeslot, but below CSI #s from year-ago performance)
11.Jane the Virgin (weak, but improvement on BATB)

The Bad
12.State of Affairs (huge week 2 drop, but could have been messed up by Obama)
13.The McCarthys (OK retention from TAAHM, but lowest rated CBS comedy)
14.Forever (timeslot improvement, but still weak)
15.Constantine (decent retention from lead-in, but still weak)
16.Bad Judge (mediocre but not completely horrible)
17.Selfie (mediocre but not completely horrible)
18.Red Band Society (ratings worthy of UGLY distinction, but given the competition, I'll just label it as bad)

The Ugly
19. Marry Me (terrible retention from lead-in, despite being most promoted comedy on NBC. Beaten by the already weak New Girl)
20.Gracepoint (terrible ratings despite decent lead-in)
19.Manhattan Love Story (hit a 0.7)
20.A to Z (hit a 0.7)
21.Mulaney (hit a 0.7)
22. Utopia (horrid!)

Spot said...

Red Bad Society is averaging around 1.2 in W18-34. That's 50% higher than 0.8 for Gracepoint and Mulaney, so RBS is multiple tiers above those horrible flops. And that's way Fox considered ordering back 9 if studio would give discount (clearly, RBS is roughly breaking even, just as I suspected). A moot point, because it didn't get back order, and probably it would do bad at Tuesday 8 PM anyway, especially if NBC moves The Voice there.

The McCarthys likely didn't stabilized yet, and State of Affairs probably didn't too, so I definitely understand why you have those so low. But I'm taking in account only episodes aired so far, and I'm expecting not much of a drop from now on. Perhaps I'm too optimistic here, but nevertheless I don't see this two in same tier with those horrible rated shows that went bellow 1.0 already in 2nd or 3rd episode. I see those as: Wildly bellow network's expectations, and losing to direct competition on own network = sure cancellation, but not complete losers absolutely speaking.

Madam Secretary stabilized at around 1.5 A18.49 ratings, despite wildly changing lead-in. Unless it collapses in the spring, that's profitable level for CBS, and I see this show as a tier for itself. Meaning, MS is above shows that are not completely dead yet merely because of the fact their direct competition is doing even worse in ratings (The Mysteries of Laura, Cristela, Jane the Virgin), and is certainly above dead shows walking - Stalker and Forever (and Marry Me too if NBC wouldn't insist on face saving renewal of 1 comedy) that got additional episode only for some scheduling reasons.

I have Scorpion / NCIS: New Orleans bellow other 4 clear renewals, because I consider those two kinda timeslot hits. Like, not awfully lead-in depend, but certainly more than Gotham/Flash which are already anchoring the night for their networks, and Black-ish that will do it for ABC on Tuesday comes next fall.

The Flash is the biggest hit CW ever had, so it looks much bigger than it really is. It's 1.50 A18.49 ratings average is in my book equal 2.40 ratings on big 4 (I always give CW shows 60%, because they're cheaper to produce, but not as much as 2x cheaper, plus CW has lower CPM than big 4 = 60% in my book). That puts it lower than 3.0 by HTGAWM (or 2.8 in True, if you want), but right into tier just bellow it.

Spot said...

1) Murder
2) Flash
3) Blackish
5) Gotham
6) Scorpian
7) Madam Secretary
8) Mysteries of Laura
9) Stalker
10) Cristela
11) Forever
12) Jane the Virgin
13) Marry Me
14) State of Affairs
15) The McCarthys
16) Red Band Society
17) Selfie
18) Bad Judge
19) Gracepoint
20) Mulaney
21) A to Z
22) Manhatten Love Story

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