Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Friday 12/12/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The Amazing Race (1.2) was up 0.1.
  • Most Friday series aired their final originals of 2014, but the results were not memorable. ABC had a particularly weak outing with Last Man Standing (1.1) and Cristela (0.8) each declining for the third straight episode and Shark Tank (1.5) blowing away its previous season low. And CBS' trio of The Amazing Race (1.1), Hawaii Five-0 (1.1) and Blue Bloods (1.2) were all below average. Only NBC did reasonably well with Dateline (1.3), Grimm (1.3) and Constantine (1.0) all a bit above average. Fox had two hours of MasterChef Junior repeats (0.6) and the CW replayed the two-hour premiere of TNT's new show The Librarians (0.4).

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Last Man Standing 1.1 23% -8%-0.1n/a 9/10 -8% -8% -8% 1.4
Cristela 0.8 23% -11%-0.1-0.1 9/9 n/a -11% -11% 1.2
Shark Tank 1.5 27% -17%-0.3-0.1 11/11 -25% -14% -23% 1.8
20/20 1.4 29% +0%+0.0-0.3 5/12 +0% +0% -3% 1.6
ABC:-8%-13%
The Amazing Race 1.2 26% +0%+0.0n/a 2/11 n/a +4% -11% 1.5
Hawaii Five-0 1.1 16% -21%-0.3+0.0 7/9 -8% +38% -8% 1.4
Blue Bloods 1.2 14% -8%-0.1-0.3 5/9 +0% +50% +0% 1.5
CBS:+27%-7%
Dateline Fri 1.3 23% +0%+0.0n/a 5/11 +18% +44% +13% 1.6
Grimm 1.3 33% +8%+0.1+0.4 2/8 +8% +8% +4% 1.6
Constantine 1.0 38% +25%+0.2+0.1 3/8 n/a +25% -9% 1.3
NBC:+24%+3%
MasterChef Junior (R) 0.6 44% -48% -14% 0.9
Fox:-48%-14%
The Librarians (R) 0.4 33% +7% +100% 0.5
CW:+7%+100%
Big5:-7%-3%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

101 comments:

Spot said...

NBC Staying Power Index - Premiere edition
(this week's rookie and sophomore shows A18-49 ratings)

1.6 State of Affairs
1.2 The Mysteries of Laura
1.2 Marry Me
1.1 Bad Judge
1.0 Constantine
0.9 About A Boy
0.8 A to Z

Average only 1.1, despite multiple shows actually being up this week.

Spot said...

"We are we are, we are all just dead air" - NBC shows.


Nothing tells more about NBC's awful season than the fact that their scripted average is below 1.5 in december (1.48 now, below last season's average from september-may) and their scripted average counting only rookies and sophomores is 1.21.

Spot said...

But overall I still think Fox is having even more nightmarish season than NBC is having. Because NBC at least has some veterans that are holding well.

Spot said...

Actually, its abscence in your list above made me miss it.


Still, Chicago PD only rises the average to 1.26. The rookie-only average ends up being 1.21 too.

Spot said...

Why? In May the behind the scenes special pulled off a 1.5 and vaulted the mothership to a 2.3 series high! Having something other than .8 Cristela do wonders

Spot said...

Last Man Standing hitting a 1.5 seems like a long time ago now

Spot said...

I'm a big fan of Shark Tank and a regular viewer. One new season low 2 weeks before Christmas isn't that concerning to me Looking at the bigger picture,selfishly, I guess I don't want to risk diluting its uniqueness and possibly accelerating any ratings decline beyond normal aging.

Spot said...

Here, I'll do it for ya:

With last week's 1.5, the Average is now...1.2.

Doesn't seem Greenblatt or Salke are going to be around for much longer.

Spot said...

I still think the voice leaving is going to severely weaken SOA, especially with them being a 1.6 with the show, how much it weakens it remains to be seen.

Spot said...

Well ABC and CBS's are helped by their scripted hit lead-ins.
NBC doesn't have that so can't fuel a hit like that.

Spot said...

True. I'm comparing 4th episode of State of Affairs, while other shows aired 8 episodes, give or take. A bit unfair,but I just wanted to keep it simple.

Spot said...

1% of survival, 99% cancelled.
To be renewed, it should not drop much without The Voice (8 of 13 episodes, wow), plus all 3 of Allegience / Odyssey / Night Shift should flop. Not impossible, but almost impossible.

Spot said...

Now that we know The Night Shift will be a mid season show (and in the cushiest timeslot), that pity renewal people were assuming was going to be between State of Affairs or The Mysteries of Laura seems a long shot, don't you agree?

Spot said...

Maybe not, in my opinion, since NBC has 19 hours (not counting saturdays) to fill.
Football takes 4.
The Voice 3.
5 fall dramas are coming back (Blacklist, Grimm, Law and Order: SVU, Chicago Fire and PD)
The Night Shift joins those dramas, one more hour - my bet is also about it coming back next fall, it'll finish this season with 22 episodes, just like a typical freshman.
Dateline takes one more hour


The five remaining hours are the key, I bet they'll trim their comedies to one hour (whether it is Undateable + new comedy or two new comedies), one hour could be reality programming (Biggest Loser?) or a variety show like their project for Neil Patrick Harris, two hours for new dramas and one for a pity renewal (promoting three new dramas takes a lot of promotion).


But now the pity renewal might be Laura vs The Americans rip-off, Odyssey is on sundays, Aquarius unscheduled, Hannibal is midseason/summer and State of Affairs done.

Spot said...

Are those numbers including The Blacklist's numbers too?

Spot said...

This just in: American Idol is going the DWTS route. It's now only one night with performances and results. Frankly I'm rather shocked.

Spot said...

It's one night when the show gets in the to10. Up then, it will air on Wednesdays and Thursdays.

Spot said...

It means Empire will have to run straight through and end super quite early for that.

Spot said...

How many episodes does Empire have? 13?

Spot said...

Actually, no.

Spot said...

As far as I know, yes. They could end it on the first of April.


This being said, I still believe Backstorm won't get out of February sweeps alive, prompting a Bones | American Idol arrangement that will last through May, regardless of what their plans right now are.

Spot said...

I am not 100% sold on TBL making it on to the fall schedule again. Probably a lot of it depends on how the apprentice does as filling the voice gap. But TBL did quite well the year it was given that role so I wouldn't be surprised to see NBC go down that route with it again. It's doing horrible in its current spot it could be a better use for it to keep it as bridge.

Spot said...

That's most likely. They have said that's how it'll be near the end of the show, such as when Bones returns...if Backstrom survives that is.

Spot said...

I don't know about other people, but I've been always saying it with reserve. Like, "If all 3 midseason shows would flop, then it would be between SofA and Laura for face saving renewal."
There's still 3 midseason dramas. Yes, there's surprise with The Night Shift is airing in midseason instead of Aquarius. But I don't see it dramatically changing situation. What I see as a game changer is State of Affairs losing The Voice lead-in, and leaving it with practically no chances for renewal.

Then I see it as the race for 1 renewal (and it could be 2 renewals if SVU is cancelled) between 4 shows: Night Shift / Odyssey / Allegiance / Laura.

If I understood well, your opinion is The Night Shift is favorite in that race thanks to The Voice lead-in, right? You might be up to something here. I really didn't give it much of a thought, but now I did and...
My opinion is neither of those 3 shows doesn't even resemble a hit, and some might even flop. And in that situation, lead-in could be crucial, as NBC showed no hesitance to renew shows with OK raw numbers, but not truely strong shows (ratings inflated due to lead-in), And it happened when they had to give some face renewal(s), which is exactly direction this their season is headed to.

Spot said...

But that is known since upfronts. Reilly said Idol is going "down to around 37 hours from its current run of over 50 hours."
Already then we knew it will be 2 hours in most of the weeks, and probably only 1 hour in some weeks.

This is what I concluded back then in May (and surely is not correct any more, I would have to synchronize it with their announced midseason plans):
American Idol - 37 hours
Auditions 3 x 3 hours = 9
Hollywood Round 2 x 2 = 4
Semifinals 3 x 1 hour = 3
Finalists 9 x 2 hours = 18
final week 3 hours

Spot said...

Early draft of NBC mock schedule:

Mon: The Voice / new "female" drama (Shades of Blue ?)
Tue: The Voice / Neil Patrick Harris / Chicago Fire
Wed: comedy block / SVU / Chicago PD
Thu; new reality or TBL / Blacklist / pity renewed drama
Fri: Dateline / Grimm / new "genre" drama

Spot said...

In fact, I'm not sure about TBL too. I'm just betting NBC might cover one of those hours with reality programming.


And I agree, they can go for three dramas, actually, the biggest limitation is The Voice talking three hours of the schedule, which leads to always the same timeslots like mondays and fridays at 10.

Spot said...

I think they will have 2 comedy hours, but only one "true" comedy hour, and the other one to be Neil Patrick Harris variety show.

Two sitcoms would be 1 rookie, plus the best performing among Undateable / One Big Happy / Mr. Robinson. Or, 2 new sitcoms if mdiseason comedies would flop too

Spot said...

EDIT: Here's what fits in their announced midseason schedule. It's pretty futile effort, because it assumes both Empire and Backstrom would air all 13 episodes in original timeslot. But, hey, that's their, rather optimistic plan, it seems.

first 2 weeks (until Backstrom premeire) = 3 hours (1 Wed / 2 Thu) = 6 hours
next 9 weeks (until Bones Return) = 2 hours (1 Wed / 1 Thu) = 18 hours
next 2 weeks (until Empire finale) = 1 hour (1 Wed) = 2 hours
5 more weeks = 2 hours (2 Wed) = 10 hours
final week 3 hours

Spot said...

This is a very likely schedule. Here are a few comments:


Seeing what Greenblatt has done so far, I think it's more likely NBC throws NPH to the wolves on Thursday at 8pm so that they can maximize ad rates for the show.


Tuesday 9pm will continue to be half hour sitcoms. New multicam at 9pm and Undateable shifting to 9:30 since it's sure to at least do mid-1s this Spring (enough for a renewal).


I think The Night Shift may move to Wednesday 8pm and if it does 1.4s there it'll be safe for another 3 seasons.


Thursday 10pm will either be State of Affairs (unlikely), Allegiance (maybe), or Odyssey (most likely renewal unless it's kept to Sundays which is a possibility).


Friday is a question mark. Grimm isn't strong enough to be a lead-in to a new show, and nothing at 10pm will stay over a 1.0

Spot said...

If Undateable stays above a 1.5 it will surely be renewed. It'll also already have 23 episodes under it's belt by next year, so I could definitely see it sticking around for a few years.


I also agree on NPH. SNL is still consistently NBC #1 or #2 scripted show every week, so the hopes for NPH are extremely high.

Spot said...

I cannot see variety show at 8 PM. I'm actually thinking they might want to put it 10 PM to allow for more adult content. Maybe if they can move Chicago Fire somewhere (but I see only Wed 9 PM if SVU is cancelled) then this:
Tue: comedy block / The Voice / Neil Patrick Harris

If NBC again gives The Voice lead-in to comedy block, then they're complete idiots. They should learn from ABC - they gave Goldbergs tough timeslot, and only after the show survived it with OK ratings they gave it timeslot upgrade. Smart, it payed off. While NBC idiots are wasting their best lead-in on obvious failures.

Spot said...

If NPH doesn't air at 8pm on Thursday it wouldn't surprise me if NBC placed it at 10pm Thursday next season if Allegiance fails. NPH won't need a lead-in to succeed. As I mentioned above the ad-rates on Thursday are far more lucrative than Tuesday, and a show hosted by NPH will be an easy sale to ad-buyers.


Anyway, Undateable proved it doesn't need a lead-in to survive as well. It grew out of Hollywood Game Night and repeats all summer, so in essence it proved itself. If it does well on Tuesday (mid-high 1s) it'll probably stay on Tuesday next fall.

Spot said...

You may choose to believe that ad rates on Thursday are far more lucrative than on other days. As there's not a single evidence which would support that theory, I choose not to believe in that myth.

However, that's of no importance here. But it's kinda important that you're quite optimistic about prospects of upcoming NBC shows. I'm not nearly as optimistic, because this is patchwork schedule with shows they didn't want to premiere in fall, plus some summer shows summoned to air in-season, which shows desperation. Plus, Greenblatt's track record is truly awful: in 2 1/2 cycles he developed only Blacklist and Chicago Fire + solid utility player in Chicago PD. And zero comedies.

Outside of 5 obvious veteran drama renewals, I expect them to renew A. D. for next midseason, and the least bad rated among other dramas for next fall. And I except all comedies to be cancelled. Maybe Undateablerenewed for face saving reasons.

Spot said...

Yes, it is possible to have 3 new dramas for total 9 dramas on NBC fall schedule, Provided NBC would have no reality shows except for The Voice. But it's not likely, because 8 dramas / 4 reality hours / 2 comedy hours (15th hour is Dateline) is much more easier to schedule.
With 8 dramas they would have:
8 PM: 2x Voice , 1x comedy block, 1x reality, Dateline
9 PM & 10 PM: 1x Voice, 1x variety show, 8x drama

I bet it's impossible to construct NBC schedule with 9 dramas that wouldn't place some drama(s) into awkward timeslot(s).

Spot said...

I think we agree more than we disagree on all this.


As far as the "myth" of Thursday ad-rates, it's a line of reasoning that is often mentioned by AdAge and TV news sources. Whether it's true or not, it does seem that networks like having some of their stronger programs on Thursday nights. In a practical sense, Thursday night is a great night for advertising Friday night movies premiers and retailers's weekend sales.


Optimistic? I think it's realistic to assume NBC will renew most dramas and comedies that are above a 1.5 by May. That's at least what they've done the past 3 years.


Of the new shows for this season, I'll list the ones I think will make it to another season by likeliness: A.D., Odyssey (even Vikings premiered to a 2.0 on History Channel after The Bible), The Night Shift, and Undateable. TMOL is a tossup for Friday depending on what NBC wants to do with the night, and Allegiance is a long shot to even succeed. State of Affairs, Constantine, Marry Me, and About A Boy are dead. One Big Happy will have to maintain 90% of whatever Undateable scores to even have a chance (GUF had an 80% retention of AAB and was cancelled...)


As for Undateable specifically, I think it has a shot to do at least as well as AAB did last year, and in that scenario it will likely be renewed.

Spot said...

While AdAge is very reliable source, I absolutely never saw them mentioning anything about Thursday ad-rates being higher.

I hope Undateable is renewed, because it would mean Marry Me is surely cancelled. Which I've predicted long ago, and I very much like to be right. Other than that petty and malicious interest of mine, I honestly don't care.
However, I'm sceptical about Undateable and One Big Happy chances, simply because NBC sitcoms failed one after another in that timeslot. And those were higher profile shows, with more trust of NBC brass, and leading out of at that time stronger Voice. I'm not talking about some curse here, but about Greenblatt's proven inability to pick comedy hit. Or even some sitcom that would be decently rated.

Dramas? We agree about A. D. being very promising. And for others I didn't form opinion yet, so I'm nor able to disagree with you, nor to agree with you.

NBC will never schedule Laura on Friday, because it would have ratings lower worse than Constantine. That's because very similar skewing Blue Bloods would eat it alive.

Spot said...

I just did a google search and there are a lot of hits for "lucrative" Thursday Ad rates, but I'll need to look further into it to see if there's proof, or if it's just something that's a "traditional-understanding-not-base- on-actual-evidence".


Marry Me is defacto-cancelled in my opinion. NBC doesn't own it, so they have no incentive to drag it to syndication.


As far as NBC's recent history with comedies, the problem hasn't solely been the shows themselves. A lot of the problem was poor scheduling and too many moves. Even when NBC still had the Office and 30 Rock, they moved comedies around all the time, and at odd times during the season. That's why they never truly established a hit behind The Office during it's years.


Likewise the same was done to Go On 2 years ago. It was doing great, before it's lead-in changed to a show starring a 90 year old woman. And then if that wasn't enough it was moved to Thursday in the middle of April with very little promotion for the move.


NBC killed the relative comedy hits they did have with numerous bad schedules. So all of that said with as desperate as the net is now the bar is pretty low for Undateable.


TMOL's chances are slim, but I could see NBC rebuilding Fridays with a lineup that looks like Dateline/TMOL/Grimm. That of course assumes TMOL is still doing ok in the Spring and can earn it's renewal. TMOL skews old female, Blue Bloods and H50 skews old male. Fridays in general skew old, so an older skewing female drama might be a good fit for the night.

Spot said...

Advertisers pay for the ratings. It just happened that Thursday was the night with the highest ratings in many of recent seasons, especially in the heyday of Idol. Then "TV news sources" made average over all days, and concluded "advertisers pay by far most for Thursday shows". Well, nowadays Monday is the night with the highest broadcast ratings, and if "TV news sources" would apply that "method" of theirs now, then it would give them conclusion "advertisers pay by far most for Monday shows". Despite movies not suddenly premiering on Tuesday.

The other thing "TV news sources" doesn't understand is advertisers are paying premium for so called "reach". That means, for example, they will pay somewhat more for each 1000 eyeballs of the show with 4.0 ratings, than they will for 1000 A18-49 viewers of the show with 2.0 ratings. Because they easier reach many people that way. But that also doesn't have anything to do with day of week, it just happened that many of those big hits (or "megahits" like Idol) aired on Thursday recently.

Spot said...

Yeah, you and It depends made me realize The Night Shift is only replacing Aquarius in the equation. Still, it's like TNS has aired its back 9 order back in june and now is gonna air the rest of its first full season. An average result for the show (something similar to what SofA is doing) will put it in a better position than the others, but that doesn't mean it's taking TMOL or State's place.

Spot said...

How is the profits split between ABC and CBS?
CBS gets the ad revenues while ABC gets syndication money? How does it work?

Spot said...

That is probably their plan yes but like you said, that's a very optimistic one. I am kind of convinced that Empire will do well enough to air all 13 at least, if only based on the compatibility with Idol alone but Bakcstorm is a very different story. And like I said before, no time to air all Bones episodes is the biggest red flag.

Spot said...

I kind of think that the difference is how much in brand The Night Shift feels for NBC as opposed to something like Aquarius. In a world without SVU for instance, a Wednesday line up of The Night Shift | Chicago Fire | Chicago PD would probably be a good thing for NBC. Aquarius? Meh.

Spot said...

That's a likely schedule in terms of what returns. In terms of pairings, the "pity renewed" drama may not pair with the blacklist if say, that is the night shift. And I don't think it's impossible they premiere 3 new dramas, depending on how it goes with the comedies (as that will determine how many hours of new programming they would need).


I could see:
Monday: The Voice | Shades of Blue
Tuesday: The Voice | Comedy block | Chicago Fire
Wednesday: The Night Shift | SVU | Chicago PD
Thursday: Neil Patrick Harris or TBL | The Blacklist | New Drama (or Allegiance)
Friday: Dateline | Grimm | New Drama

Spot said...

I agree with all that, I posted a very similar comment above yours. I would only add that I don't think it's out of the realm of possibilities that Thursdays at 10pm is also a new drama. If the blacklist does well, they could try launching something out of it again. But I think Allegiance stands a decent chance of renewal anyway.

Spot said...

Leaving my opinion aside, I thought you of all people would love NBC's new schedule, if only because they are essentially doing with the night shift (a procedural that can be carried to syndication very much like chicago PD) what you wanted them to do last fall with chicago pd, which was to protect it and help it get to syndication by giving it a post voice slot. Isn't that the case?

Spot said...

I don't think Allegiance is that much of a long shot. If Blacklist hangs around a 2.0, 80% retention would put Allegiance at a 1.6, which by the time Spring hits NBC should put it on a very high end bubble level. And remember that Murder will be gone during most of its run anyway. I also think the night shift has a better chance of making it than Odyssey, due to the infinite number of possible uses that NBC could have for it, but we shall see.

Spot said...

I believe Grimm would get slaughtered in that timeslot. I imagine it has almost zero overlap with Mysteries of Laura. That, plus a move to the lower viewed 10pm, would probably be a death blow for the show, which is still doing quite well on Fridays. Why risk it for the sake of Laura, which they don't even own (as opposed to Grimm, from which they can keep collecting syndication revenue?). Not to mention that Laura is doing the same or worse than Grimm already on a weekday while Grimm is on Fridays.

Spot said...

I think there are more compatible shows around the schedule (particularly all 3 dick wolf shows) to pair the night shift with than with the blacklist.

Spot said...

Wednesdays at 8 is not an awkward timeslot for a drama. In fact ,I would argue that it's crazy that no network has stepped up and tried to seriously counter-program that hour with a drama since it's probably the easiest Monday-Thursday slot on the entire broadcast. NBC has show willingness to do so (they've programmed dramas there for the last two seasons) and from a competition standpoint, it makes more sense to air a drama like the night shift there than comedies to go against the goldbergs and the middle (which aren't powerhouses, but still offer more resistance than a drama would find).

Spot said...

I agree with this. The only thing that could complicate those plans is if both Undateable and One Big Happy prove to be renewal worthy. In that case, NBC's PR machine may "force" it to launch some other sitcom in the fall schedule, since it would be very odd not to do it (though not necessarily a bad thing).

However, we all know that the odds of NBC finding two renewal worthy sitcoms this spring are... well, let's say low.

Spot said...

And that worked splendid for NBC?

But, yes, they wanted drama exactly at Wednesday 8 PM, because there's no drama competition there. If they want 8 PM drama, then it's good move to have it on Wednesday.

But this midseason they're having dramas both at Wed 8 PM, and Thu 8 PM, because:
They're not developing new reality shows for some reason
+ they're developing comedies, but awful ones, so they cancel them, and their number of sitcoms is ever shrinking
= they're forcing themselves into those "drama-heavy" schedules.

However, there's point where things got "too drama-heavy", and I think they're already reached that point.

Spot said...

NBC has considerable less dramas on the schedule than CBS or ABC, which program the same number of hours. I don't think they are there yet. I know you don't like to program dramas at 8, but I legitimately think that no network going with a drama there is a dumb move. I get why ABC doesn't do it but the others have no excuse (CBS is passable since Survivor does great there).

By the way, NBC is actually developing new reality shows but they are keeping them in the summer only. America's Ninja Warrior is a big hit for summer nowadays. Second tier reality shows like Running Wild or even Food Fighters (as well as Get Out Alive last year), were launched in summer only and did comparable numbers to TBL. And there is also Last Comic Standing which I consider to be one of the biggest successes of last summer. The only exception is Game Night which they don't seem to mind bringing into the regular season. There were plans for Space Race to be launched in season but that was delayed.

Spot said...

ABC and CBS doesn't have football and The Voice to eat up 7 hours of their schedule. It leaves 12 hours for NBC to play with, and I think it's to much to put 9 dramas in those 12 hours. Or 9 of 11 hours, if we count in Dateline. While 8 dramas out of 11 hours is acceptable given their comedy department is currently so weak.

Spot said...

I think that's a flawed argument. You are basically taking out NBC's reality hours and football hours and calculating the proportion of dramas over the remaining number of hours. By that token, one could also remove ABC's reality hours (DWTS) and say, comedy hours (since these are strong ones as opposed to NBC), and calculate drama hours over the remaining ones. It just feels like a random criteria for me. Yes, it's the criteria we use when trying to guess what will fill the other hours of the schedule but that doesn't really mean anything IMO.

I think the correct calculation should be:
- ABC has 10 drama hours out of 18, so it's 55% of its schedule
- CBS has 13 drama hours out of 18, so it's 72% of its schedule
- NBC has 8 drama hours out of 18, so it´s 44% of its schedule
- FOX has 5 drama hours out of 12, so it's 42% of its schedule but one might also argue that since they aren't really programming Fridays it should be 5 out of 10, which would be 50%

If NBC adds a drama hour they will be at 50%, still below ABC and CBS, I don't see what the big deal would be about it.

Spot said...

LMS had a pretty decent fall though. It's only down 5% year to year and is sitting at 70% of ABC's comedy average on a Friday. I would argue that ABC could have hardly expected a much better performance than the 5% down year to year (which is obviously up in PLUS). I expect the show to rebound in January, when it had some of its best data points last year. So it should come down to its performance in the spring, assuming its renewal does hinge on ratings and not on cost/ license fees issues (it's also possible it finishes early and is replaced by Beyond the Tank which would favor the year to year comparisons of course).

Spot said...

That's certainly true but the year to year trend for NBC has been getting dangerously close to FOX's. FOX is down 20% year to year and NBC is down 15%. There is still a 5% gap there but being down anywhere near as much as the Titanic is very scary.

I also insist that CBS is quietly having a nightmarish season of their own. They are down 11% so far but a lot of was masked during half of the fall with TNF. The second half had a much lousier trend.

Spot said...

The big difference is that ABC and CBS can make viable schedules with that number of dramas, while NBC can not.

You (and some others, too) are proposing weird schedules with 10 PM Neil Patrick Harris show at 8 PM, or with comedy block leading out of The Voice again (really, are they that crazy?) - which just proves my point. Which is: While it's possible to construct NBC schedule with 9 dramas in it, it's impossible to construct one that would make sense.

Spot said...

I assume that is how it works for all shows yes.
Production company gets syndication revenues while network gets ad revenues. Production company offers the show at a certain licensee fee to the network, the value of which tends to be the deciding factor in these deals I assume (although that one, in turn, is probably heavily influenced by the syndication revenues and, of course, the costs).

Basically:
Network P&L Statement: (Ad Revenues - Licensee Fee) * (1-Tax Rate) = Profit
Production Company P&L Statement: (Syndication Money + Other Distribution Income + Licensee Fee - Production Costs) * (1-Tax Rate) = Profit

Spot said...

Normally I would agree (read: if they did this for the fall). But it's midseason and they had very limited options.


They could either decide to support the summer shows like they did or they could get behind something like The Slap (which would give them zero long term benefit since it's a limited thing), Aquarius (which they apparently don't like since it's on summer) ,State of Affairs and Marry Me (which have shown no promise at all) or Odyssey. Odyssey would have been an option but one can argue it already has enough support from AD and the alternative (Odyssey on Mondays/Tuesdays and Night Shift on Sundays) sounds less a net loss overall since I don't imagine the night shift to be compatible with AD. Outside options would have included trying to boost sophmore/ freshman shows that are doing meh elsewhere (Laura, Chicago PD), but I don't think those shows are more deserving than the night shift quite honestly and that would require extra moves and gaps on the schedule as a result.


So really what is the opportunity cost here? They have nothing to loose I think.

Spot said...

Is that for premieres os seasonal averages?

Taking Grey's with big confidence regardless
Taking Murder with big confidence regardless
Taking Blacklist with low confidence if it's premiere against premiere (but Scandal still winning) and taking Scandal with some confidence if it's seasonal averages

Spot said...

Regarding the lack of depth of full season dramas I would argue that Sleepy Hollow could easily be turned into one. Yes it has plenty of serialized elements but they can easily throw procedural episodes around as well. And they are doing 18 anyway right now, 22 is not that different I think.

In what concerns Bones, I am genuinely not sure if your last paragraph still holds true for the show's current 1.2 level. Maybe it recovers in the Spring, but right now that's it's level. And with a sub-demo profile that it's less favorable than say Red Band Society' 0.9 and certainly more expensive than a new show would be, I am not sure if it's still more profitable than the shows you've mentioned (probably more than Mulaney or Utopia but those were monumental flops, it's not expected that they keep developing flops of epic proportions I think). It comes down to syndication revenues (which are certainly big) and to actual costs (they did get rid of a long time regular this year which probably helped, but still have 5 long time cast members). I think it's a legitimate tossup right now.

Spot said...

Averages, but only february-may.

Spot said...

I really like that idea of announcing that Friday schedule and holding it until post World Series. I am almost sure at least half of it would be asked to save the day in a weekday but they would at least have options.

But they probably need at least one midseason renewal to make that happen, or else they have too little stuff to fill the weekday schedule. It's Gotham, Sleepy Hollow, New Girl, Mindy, B99, Family Guy, The Simpsons and that's it. That's 4,5 hours for the 10 hours they would have to fill (Fridays excluded). I don't see FOX launching 5.5 hours of new programming. Even if they bring back Hell's Kitchen (which I don't think they should, but well),that's still 4.5 hours. They did it this year, true, but the results weren't exactly great.

Spot said...

I have two problems with that schedule:
- TBBT again moving back and forth between nights. If we accept that the move is what hurt it, then wouldn't it be wise to not repeat the mistake two years in a row?
- POI's move to Thursday is really uncomfortable I think. They wouldn't be invested in its promotion and the show is already pulling meh numbers on the nice Tuesday slot, so a move to such a worse slot would probably lead to Elementary like numbers or only slightly above it. I understand why you are doing it - it's because there is nothing else to put in that slot and you don't want to put a new drama there. It's the same problem I run into when I try a CBS mock schedule. But I still don't like it.

Minor remark also: If Cyber does work, they won't launch only 2 hours of new programming in the fall I think.

Spot said...

Yeah that's what I meant by seasonal averages actually, not the whole season numbers, I should have clarified.

Spot said...

I agree, and I've actually posted the same thing at TVBTN before. Allegiance only needs an 80% retention rate from a 1.8-2.4 Blacklist in order to exceed NBC's scripted average.

The only reason I put its chances so low, is because I have a feeling the Night Shift and Odyssey will do even better than Allegiance. I'm not sure if NBC will be able to renew all 3, unless of course they end SVU this season or next season (ie short final season order).

The reason I put Odyssey above TNS, is because NBC owns Odyssey (and Allegiance for that matter) but Sony owns TNS. I think TNS will be renewed regardless, but there's not as much incentive to support TNS to syndication since NBC doesn't own it.

Spot said...

I agree.

If NBC ends SVU this season or next they could do TNS/CF/CPD on Wednesday next fall. That would be a really strong upgrade for the night.

Spot said...

I agree with this as well.

The benefit to Laura is the older skew but moving a low rated show like Laura to another night is risky since the ratings could potentially just decline more (ie Amazing Race, H50, CSI).

Spot said...

Tge biggest benefit to renewing Allegiance is at least NBC knows they have a show that can stand up to HTGAWM since Allegiance will premier during one of the last episodes of that series.

If Allegiance stays within a 1.4-1.7 it'll already be the best rated drama NBC has had in the slot since ER.

Spot said...

That would make sense. Strangely many even "reliable" pundits still mention Thursday ad-rates in articles about The Blacklist moving to Thursdays and Thursday Night Football.

Spot said...

It's possible though. Multicams in general seem to make better hour-long blocs because people turn their brain off when they hear the laugh tracks and somehow lose their remote controls.

If both Undateable and OBH do similar numbers (ie OBH has 90% rention of Undateable) then both will be renewed.

I don't think both will be on the fall schedule though.

NBC will probably give Undateable a full 22 episode order and place it in the fall with a new sitcom (Jerrod Carmichael's show perhaps), and OBH will get a 13 episode spackle renewal, just in case Undateable or Jarrod Carmichael collapse in the fall.

Spot said...

I am not sure Odyssey could become a fall fixture. If it does well and is compatible with AD, NBC will probably gladly take that lineup as a regular Sunday midseason fixture and call it a day. I am sure they would love not having to worry about that night every year.

Regarding TNS, true, it's not owned by NBC, but Sony is as good as it gets in terms of outside studios. Warner Brother is actually a much bigger problem. Sony is known to make huge reaches to carry their shows to syndication and I imagine a procedural like the night shift will be in a prime spot for them to bend over and do just that.

I don't think it's inconceivable that we see both Night Shift and Allegiance on the fall schedule with Odyssey for midseason. But it seems very unlikely to me that NBC would suddenly run into 3 (4 if we count AD) renewable dramas after striking out for the whole fall. So while individually it feels likely that these things would happen, as a whole I don't feel confident lol.

Spot said...

NBC likely won't abadon half-hour comedies Tuesday at 9pm. It's their best shot at comedy success and one of the easiest hours for comedy that's avalable for them.

We still don't know how "adult" the NPH show will be, but the fact that it's likely to be a self-starter means it would be a valuable new lead in for NBC. The only night where it's lead-in makes sense is Thursday.

If NBC does want the show at 10pm there are some other options for them such as Tuesday 10pm after an hour of comedies or Thursday 10pm.

Spot said...

Renewing Allegiance would also have the benefit of avoiding launching two new hours in the fall around the blacklist. They will need something for 8pm and I don't see anything they have being "movable" there. So it's either a new show or The Biggest Loser. I don't like the idea of TBL in that role as we've spoken before, so that leaves a new drama.

Spot said...

This is all true as well.

So if Allegiance and TNS are both renewed do you think its possible SVU will be renewed too?

NBC could move TNS and CF to Wednesday, launch a new drama Monday, do NPH on Tuesday at 10, and do Biggest Loser on Thursday. Maybe a short final season of SVU could air Friday at 10pm in the fall before Hannibal's Spring return?

Anyway I like the idea of keeping AD and Odyssey together. It'll be an easier for NBC long term.

Spot said...

Biggest Loser wouldn't be the worst show to keep there. It'd do better than The Slap likely will.

Once The Blacklist proves that it's fine even with the Slap as a lead-in, it really won't matter what NBC throws at 8pm. The Blacklist won't be affected.

Spot said...

Yes, if the blacklist does well with slap, it won't matter for it what they throw at 8pm. But that doesn't mean they shouldn't try to fix and do well in the slot IMO.

Spot said...

If SVU is renewed I don't think Chicago Fire leaves Tuesdays. Fire on Tuesdays has a huge advantage for NBC which is that it allows them to keep trying stuff after the voice at 9pm with minimal impact on Chicago Fire since the show is damn resilient to horrible lead-ins. If they put something new there it creates a problem for them because if the 9pm flops, the 10pm flops as well most likely and they whole night is in even bigger trouble.

If SVU is renewed, I would rather just move Night Shift to Wednesdays and let Fire on Tuesdays.

Regarding Fridays, I don't know what they will do there. I kind of think Constantine deserved better than being capped at 13 like that. Considering they have nothing to put there, I think the show is doing well enough to warrant a bridge. In any case (and I know everyone says this is damn unlikely or even impossible) but if it keeps its new found 1.0 level in January and February I would probably attempt to bring it back in the fall.

Spot said...

With that I disagree. I don't see why NBC would keep what is essentially a new sitcom that is successful (after just 6 episodes) off the fall schedule only for it to be long forgotten when it's brought back later on. Freshman shows are not good ideas to use as spackle since it's out of sight, out of mind most of the times. Certainly not one with 6 episodes!

So to me either OBH does well enough to warrant a fall slot or it doesn't and is cancelled, I see no middle ground.

Spot said...

I agree, and as you said before TBL works better as a bridge between The Voice cycles.

It would actually be really cool if NBC moved American Ninja Warrior to Thursday 8pm since it'd probably hold up against Grey's and TBBT. Or if they want to keep ANW in the summer they could try another reality franchise they have at Thursday 8pm. Maybe bring back the original Apprentice or bring back Deal or No Deal?

I think a reality show would be better counter programming than a new drama Thursday 8pm. I was actually really surprised they decided to go with 3 hours of drama on Thursday this Spring.

Spot said...

With no Community or Parks NBC has no more spackle comedies hence why Undateable had to be brought in from the summer.

But if both Undateable and OBH succeed (succeed=1.7+ average by May), I guess both Undateable and OBH could potentially be stronger in the demo than TMOL or even The Slap if NBC wanted to shift one or both shows to Wednesday or Thursday at 8pm.

Spot said...

Where do you think the NPH show will go. Monday at 10pm?

Spot said...

My ideal solution for the slot would be something splashy and male leaning like Heroes Reborn. If they aren't willing to do that and want to keep it in the summer, then I don't dislike the idea of a new reality there. I also don't hate the idea of NPH there though an 8pm slot and facing big bang isn't ideal.

Spot said...

I don't think The Slap can even be renewed to be honest, I believe it truly is a mini series, not a limited one.

Spot said...

Yeah Heroes would be the perfect show for the slot.

Maybe NBC chose the Slap for the slot this Spring because they wanted a program that could simply keep the slot warm until Heroes is ready next fall.

With the development pattern for HEROES so far there's no way it'll be ready for summer.

Spot said...

Where do you think the comedies could go if both get renewed?

Spot said...

The only slot I can think of is Thursdays at 8. But I see the problem that entails (as mentioned in another comment, it would face big bang and it would air in a less than ideal 8pm slot).

But I really think we have too many variables right now to be able to guess on a concrete schedule. Personally, I struggle without knowing:
1) Which, if any, midseason dramas will make it to the fall schedule
2) Whether or not SVU will be renewed
3) Whether both sitcoms will do well enough to be brought back in the fall, essentially "forcing" NBC to launch a second comedy hours

Possible scenarios

A: 2 midseason renewals (Allegiance, The Night Shift) + no SVU + 1 sitcom hour

Monday: The Voice | Shades of Blue
Tuesday: The Voice | Sitcom block | Neil Patrick Harris
Wednesday: The Night Shift | Chicago Fire | Chicago PD
Thursday: New Drama | The Blacklist | Allegiance

Friday: Dateline | Grimm | New Drama


B: 1 midseason renewal (Allegiance) + SVU + 1 sitcom hour


Monday: The Voice | Shades of Blue
Tuesday: The Voice | Sitcom block | Neil Patrick Harris
Wednesday: Chicago Fire + SVU + Chicago PD
Thursday: New Drama | The Blacklist | Allegiance
Friday: Dateline | Grimm | New Drama


C: 1 midseason renewal (The Night Shift) + SVU + 1 sitcom hour


Monday: The Voice | Shades of Blue
Tuesday: The Voice | Sitcom Block | Chicago Fire

Wednesday: The Night Shift | SVU | Chicago PD
Thursday: New Drama | The Blacklist | Neil Patrick Harris
Friday: Dateline | Grimm | New Drama


D: 1 midseason renewal + No SVU + 2 sitcom hours


Monday: The Voice | Shades of Blue
Tuesday: The Voice | Sitcom block 1 | Neil Patrick Harris

Wednesday: Sitcom block 2 | Chicago Fire | PD
Thursday: New Drama | The Blacklist | Allegiance
Friday: Dateline | Grimm | New Drama


However, some scenarios I don't know how to program. For instance the renewal of the night shift, SVU and two sitcom hours is quite hard. It probably means curtains for SVU.

Spot said...

If they have two comedy hours, I will be shocked if they aren't Tuesdays at 9 and Wednesdays at 8.

Spot said...

This is a great problem for NBC to have and that's why I thought the mid-season schedule was perfect.

It finally gives them options going forward. Even if the Blacklist drops to a 1.8 average this Spring it's still a huge success for the network because Thursday will essentially be fixed. If Allegiance holds 80% of that average it's already the strongest drama since ER in the slot at a 1.4.

For the comedies if they take the same trajectory as AAB and GUF did both could be renewed simply because both will have less eps to fall. With only 8 weeks on the schedule both have a strong chance of staying above a 1.7.

In a fantasy scenario where Allegiance, the comedies, TNS and SVU gets renewed they could do:

Monday: The Voice | Shades of Blue
Tuesday: The Voice | New sitcom/OBH | CF
Wednesday: Undateable/New sitcom | TNS | PD
Thursday: Heroes or NPH | The Blacklist | Allegiance
Friday: Dateline | Grimm | SVU (final season)

Spot said...

Maybe Greenblatt will get nostalgic and try Thursday 8PM again lol

Spot said...

I feel like they shouldn't attempt to have a Wednesday without at least one of SVU/Fire unless The Night Shift breaks out in a very significant way this Spring.

In any case, the idea of NBC suddenly finding 4 renewable show this Spring (plus AD and Odyssey) seems like a pipe dream to me. I am sure something will flop out of the bunch. But in essential I agree with your message that yes, this gives NBC more flexibility than they've enjoyed in the past.

By the way one thing to bear in mind is that we are doing all these mock schedules including NPH but it could end up like the Maya Rudolph show and never moving forward. I think we need more news before declaring something like that a certain part of the plan.

Spot said...

Lol that's such a terrible idea.

Spot said...

There was significantly more penalty and $$$ with the NPH buy, but I agree we need to know what type of show it will be before assigning it a slot on a mock schedule.

For all we know NBC could be planning on making it a 2 hour show that can take The Voice's place on Mondays next fall.

Spot said...

I think that Last Man Standing will probably be held for midseason next year. It's not such a big Friday anchor that its going to launch something, and Cristela isn't doing well enough to just keep them together next season. And none of Middle, Goldbergs, Modern Family, and Blackish are all too strong to be given a Suburgatory type role. I think ABC will want at least one veteran comedy as backup next year.

Spot said...

I didn't know about the penalty, that's a good point.

But yes I agree about the format.

Spot said...

I have a hard time seeing it happen, mainly because I don't see LMS airing anywhere other than Fridays at this point and I don't think ABC would need it as a backup for Fridays. I think it's basically renewal for the fall or cancellation. I do however agree that it's not looking good with Cristela looking cancellation worthy and Beyond the Tank looming on the Friday horizon.

Spot said...

Also, in regards to the backup, I really really wish ABC would give up on the Tuesday comedy block. Just make it a male night and call it a day. I actually think I have supported them trying the block longer than most people. I was okay with them trying the hangout comedies there two years ago (though not after DWTS) since they had shown enough promise after Modern Family to create an hour of their own (even if I had always preferred that hour to have been Wednesdays at 10). I was okay with them trying family comedies there last year as I thought was decent counter-programming to the still strong New Girl (even if it made more sense to launch a drama after Shield and put the family comedies on Wednesday). And I was even okay with them trying relationship comedies there this year since I thought there was at least some upside with Selfie and at least there wasn't more comedy competition. But enough is enough. ABC doesn't need that comedy hour and I think they should strop trying to make it happen.

Obviously if there is no Tuesday block there is no need for backup since the Wednesday comedies won't need one. In the meantime though, they were really dumb for not renewing Suburgatory this year for Spackle. It would have come in handy for them.

Spot said...

I think it becomes a tossup only if Backstrom really hits. But considering it has to face Scandal in its week 2 and then Scandal & The Blacklist in week 3 it has to explode out of the gate to give it enough cushion for a drop.

Spot said...

My thinking has The Middle leading of a block on Tuesday with Wednesday going Goldbergs/Blackish/Modern/New. I was thinking that if the post Middle show flopped, Last Man could fill in, as it has been shown to repeat well after The Middle.

Spot said...

I am still not entirely convinced that ABC needs a Tuesday comedy block. If they do have it, your way seems to be the best one to do it and I could somehow understand the LMS spackle renewal, though I still feel the show is not very likely to air outside Fridays again. But I really have doubts that another family comedy block (or any comedy block for the matter) is needed. I really would prefer they tried a drama in there (or Beyond the Tank), at least for once.

Post a Comment

Newer Post Older Post Home
© SpottedRatings.com 2009-2016. All Rights Reserved.