Thursday, December 4, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 11/30/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: It got a little less ugly on ABC after finals after Once Upon a Time (2.1) and Resurrection (0.9) adjusted up, but all three dramas still hit outright season lows.
  • CBS had a massive NFL overrun from Patriots/Packers that happened to end right at 7:30 ET, making these preliminary numbers a bit less subject to huge adjustments than usual. At the moment, CBS is tracking toward a season high for 60 Minutes (3.7), a best-since-premiere number from Madam Secretary (1.9) and a pretty good start for the final season of The Mentalist (1.6) (even with last year's premiere and above all The Good Wife results in the slot this season).
  • With CBS strong, NBC airing an above-average football game and AMC with a The Walking Dead finale, there was very little audience left for the other two entertainment networks. ABC had a particularly disheartening meltdown as Once Upon a Time (2.0) dropped by 17% while Resurrection (0.8) and Revenge (1.0) were down a full third. Fox punted again with repeats of both The Simpsons (1.0) and Family Guy (1.1). Given those results, Bob's Burgers (1.0) and especially Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.4) held up OK at the bottom of the hours.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
America's Funniest Home Videos 1.2 25% -8%-0.1n/a 4/7 +0% -11% -0% 1.5
Once Upon a Time 2.1 41% -13%-0.3-0.4 9/9 +11% -43% +8% 2.1
Resurrection 0.9 31% -25%-0.3-0.4 8/8 n/a -77% -10% 0.9
Revenge 1.0 31% -33%-0.5-1.5 9/9 n/a -73% -9% 1.3
ABC:-59%-1%
NFL Overrun 9.7 40% +18%+1.5n/a 3/13 +13% +18% -8% 8.7
60 Minutes 3.7 26% +16%+0.5+1.5 1/11 -5% +6% -47% 1.6
Madam Secretary 1.9 18% +19%+0.3+0.5 2/11 n/a +15% -24% 1.6
The Mentalist 1.6 19% n/an/an/a 1/1 +0% +14% -9% 1.5
CSI 1.4 21% +8%+0.1+0.2 1/8 -30% +17% -13% 1.6
CBS:+13%-30%
Football Night in America p2 3.1 47% +29%+0.7n/a 1/13 +158% +29% +158% 3.2
Football Night in America p3 4.3 45% -2%-0.1n/a 5/14 +51% +5% +30% 3.8
Sunday Night Football 7.4 45% +0%+0.0-0.1 8/15 +13% -6% +20% 6.5
NBC:-16%+10%
Ice Age: A Mammoth Christmas 0.6 43% -25% -33% +20% 1.0
Mulaney 0.6 49% -14%-0.1-0.3 7/7 n/a -14% -40% 0.8
The Simpsons (R) 1.0 49% -38% -33% 1.2
Brooklyn Nine-Nine 1.4 57% -7%-0.1-0.5 9/9 -7% -7% -13% 1.5
Family Guy (R) 1.1 57% -8% -35% 1.0
Bob's Burgers 1.0 57% +11%+0.1-0.1 4/5 -38% +11% -41% 1.1
Fox:-16%-29%
Big4:-15%-10%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

33 comments:

Spot said...

Holy shizz Once! On week off killed you!?

Spot said...

Weird. Spot has Resurrection at .9 while TVBTN has .8. Either way, yikes!

Spot said...

While it's a season low I think it's the best result Brooklyn Nine-Nine has had so far this season. If Last Man on Earth can get some traction, breaking up Animation Domination won't be as big a deal; clearly the problem with most live-action sitcoms in years past (Arrested Development, The War at Home, The Bernie Mac Show, etc.) was that they didn't try to skew male.

ABC should at least see a bounce in the last weeks of the calendar year with The Walking Dead off the sked and the end of the Frozen arc giving a tiny bump to OUAT. But it's probably not enough for Revenge, and definitely not enough for Resurrection, to get another season.

Spot said...

Sorry, it's 0.8.

Spot said...

NIne-NIne looks a keeper if it can get a 1.4 on an island like that.

Brutal night for ABC. Is this the start of the "CBS comes back to win the season late" narrative?

Spot said...

That 3.5 for Once Upon a Time seems like distant memory now.

Spot said...

LOL. Never underestimate the senior citizen demographic. CBS has the football overrun strategy down to a science.

Spot said...

I'm curious, why do you think CBS can come back? We are literally getting excited for a 1.63 scripted average on Sunday for CBS. Several of CBS's former stalwarts have taken big downturns this season. Namely CSI and The Amazing Race, but also NCIS and Big Bang are down big. NCIS: LA is doing better than Hostages/Intelligence, but it also has lost a massive chunk of audience. 2 Broke Girls continues to show it is not ready to anchor. I don't see a lot of good at CBS right now.

Spot said...

This is one of those fun events where a show who used to lead into one show ends up flipped with the other years later. The Mentalist aired after CSI for multiple years, now CSI is airing after the Mentalist. It's like how when Big Bang aired after Two and a Half Men, but later had to care for it in its old age. My favorite switch in dynamic ever though is the already odd pairing of Revenge out of Happy Endings, being reverse the next season when Happy Endings temporarily aired out of Revenge!

Spot said...

They had a much less bad night than ABC, and we all know how CBS has the tendency to take off in the winter months. I don't know if they can come back, but if they can, I think we look back at this horrible ABC night (and decent CBS use of the big game) as a turning point.

Still a big if, I should stress!

Spot said...

NBC just announced what they're doing on 8pm Tuesday in January: double-pumping episodes of Parks between 13 January and 24 February, with the series finale airing behind The Voice.

Spot said...

I'll agree that not airing the Good Wife at all would help CBS. Next week it has a rock solid lineup of Undercover Boss, The Mentalist, and CSI. Honestly, I think a lineup of Undercover Boss/CSI/The Mentalist would have been the best option for them to stay relevant on Sundays

Spot said...

And, in a decision which will in no way be proven to be unwise, CBS has ordered two more episodes of The McCarthys.

Spot said...

...I don't get it.

Spot said...

So, the 9PM will just be Marry Me and About A Boy? I guess I'm okay with that. Now the last questions left are what's after Voice in the spring, what's on Thursday at 8, and most of Sunday.

Spot said...

Sports' ratings counting into a network's averages is an issue that's pretty much just glossed over. Just as important, to me, is the inflationary effect being a lead-out to a sporting event has. CBS' and Fox's shows have ratings that are all over the map in the Fall depending on if they have the late NFL game.


If CBS starts to pull these numbers on a regular basis without the NFL's help, then we can talk. But that's not going to happen.

Spot said...

The most interesting part of that is that they tell us the voice will be on during 24/02 and also that they won't go with a parks led comedy hour as lead-in for the blacklist. Thankfully. I always said they wouldn't probably go there but a lot of people seemed to think they would. As for the voice, I assume it is back that week, which is what I anticipated since it will allow for a new drama to premiere on Monday and run for 13 weeks. Not sure what they are doing with Tuesday though

Spot said...

It's strange because McCarthys + Odd Couple = 28. They don't have that many weeks in the season to air all that. Are they running mccarthys during christmas hiatus ?

Spot said...

CBS will have a better winter than ABC most likely. But ABC should hold the forth in some areas (Fridays, Mondays with the Bachelor, Wednesdays) to avoid it being a horrible beatdown. If they come back strong in the spring with TGIT, OUAT and especially a new Tuesday lineup that actually works, they will still probably take it.

Remember that CBS has been showing truly horrific signs of depreciation in areas the were not supposed to like NCIS and the Friday lineup. That's hard to reverse.

Spot said...

Also what airs after the voice tuesdays 9pm in the spring. We also don't know that right?

Spot said...

I thought I wrote that. That's what I meant after Voice in the Spring. Both for Monday and Tuesday.

Spot said...

February numbers are going to be very interesting indeed for the Sunday lineups.

Spot said...

ah got you, my bad, i thought you meant mondays only

Spot said...

Once Upon is still the scripted network champ of the night..all without any NFL lift, too. My guess is the end of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend festivities and football-palooza contributed more to the drop than the CMA's last week. Once Upon always garners huge 7 day DVR ratings which I imagine might be a little huger for this week for families tracking the Frozen story arc. I think last night's rating exceeded last year's same day, too. So, "killed" might be a little hyperbolic. However, I think it is not unreasonable to say ABC has "killed" it in their overall weekly ratings relative to the other networks this new season leading up to Thanksgiving.

Spot said...

I suppose this means The Odd Couple is having problems with production and won't be ready until March and/or it won't have more than around 10 episodes. But I don't have any real info on that, I'm just speculating.

However, 15 episodes produced, doesn't guarantee 15 episodes aired. For example, if The McCarthys would go bellow 1.0 on a "normal PUT" night, surely CBS would pull it off schedule. Surely there's some threshold, and I guess it gets pulled if it hits 1.2, maybe already if it hits multiple 1.3s.

CBS is here betting The McCarthys won't go so low in January. That's reasonable bet, as in January there's always high PUT / low competition, so TBBT goes up, then entire lineup usually follows the suit. For, February, perhaps, they're reasoning: "It won't be much important with series finale very near."

Spot said...

They opened their cards:
Parks premieres Sun, Jan 11 at 11 PM. Then 6 weeks double pumped at Tue 8 PM, but that's 10 episodes (The State of the Union takes one Tuesday away), and last 2 of 13 episodes air leading out of Tuesday The Voice edition cycle premiere Tue, 24th.

Next, now it's safe to assunme The Voice cycle premieres Mon, Feb 23. In turn, it confirms comedies remain at Tuesday 9 PM (moronic, but exactly what one would expect from NBC). Because any drama premiering at March 3, would have season final in mid June. At least, later if The Voice would be 2 hours on some Tuesday(s). Then my guess for Tuesday 9 PM is:
Jan 13 - Feb 17 (5 weeks): One Big Happy (6 episodes), About A Boy (4 episodes), OBH with 1-hour premiere or finale.
from Mar 3 on - Marry Me / About A Boy - 10 episodes each, preempted when The Voice is 2 hours.

As far as I know, 6 episodes of One Big Happy are in the can, while for Mr. Robinson I'm not even sure if they started shooting. Then I see Robinson airing in summer. Or going straight to Netflix. That would be in line with them going "broad" with comedies. Which produced fabulous results for NBC so far.

They didn't opened their cards completely, solely because they're waiting for what will State of Affairs do today. They surely would like too see 2 or 3 more weeks of its ratings before decision - but that's self-inflicted, arrogant idiots premiered SofA so late, so now they're on tight schedule.

Anyway, there's wide range of possible outcomes for SofA. Theoretically, at least. It could air post The Voice for entire season (if it bounces back to high 1s today), or get Saturday burn off (if it drops to low 1s). Of course, both is unlikely, probably it will stabilize around 1.5, and remain on Monday, but airing after The Apprentice, and some other drama getting The Voice lead-in in late February. However, SofA scheduling is crucial for scheduling of their 2 not scheduled dramas (there's 3 midseason dramas, but let's suppose Allegiance is Thu 10 PM, as announced long ago) + 1 mini series (2, but A.D. is slotted).

Spot said...

If they are really planning on air Marry Me after The Voice in the spring, then they are REALLY DESPERATE for a new comedy hit.

Spot said...

I meant it had been pretty conistantly 2.4-2.5 for a while and it takes one week off and drops to a 2.0.

Spot said...

Well, regarding NBC scheduling / picking pilots / ordering series, I always use adjectives like "idiotic", "moronic"...
So I'm actually shocked when they do correct scheduling move, and am not surprised at all when they do things that make no sense.

As for those weak comedies, they surely have Plan B and Plan C.
Plan B: If ratings remain bad, and they feel it hurts Chicago Fire - just flip comedy block with The Voice, comedies at 8 PM, and Voice at 9 PM leading into CF.
Plan C: If comedies' ratings would be truly awful, pull it off schedule, and do: The Voice recap / The Voice / Chicago Fire.

Spot said...

Jan. 11 at 11PM? But the press release says it starts on the 13th. What kind of crazy source told you that?

Spot said...

Careful reader would notice press release says:
The return of the series, in fact, will be scheduled to
premiere in the afterglow of the Jan. 11 “72nd Annual Golden Globe
Awards,” co-hosted by Amy Poehler and Tina Fey.

Spot said...

B-but...every article about this show says the 13th, and afterglow could mean promotion and publicity, but that term is so general I have no clue what it means...goddammit Greenblatt! Why must you confuse me?!

Spot said...

Probably I misinterpret it then. Then it's 13th. And maybe its' only 12 episodes.

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