Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 12/14/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Bob's Burgers (1.3) was up 0.1. Cowboys-fueled Sunday Night Football ended up at an 8.6 rating, a massive number for this time of year; it was the biggest SNF since late September (also a Cowboys game). TNT's new drama The Librarians (0.8) took a major week two decline.
  • CBS brought back Undercover Boss for a three-week Sunday run before it moves to Friday to fill space between The Amazing Race seasons. And it got off to a good start (1.7), coming in just below the high point of last season's Friday run (and better than the usual Madam Secretary demo without overrun help). This pulled CBS into a virtual tie with ABC and a national overrun-infused Fox in the 8/7c hour. And it also helped The Mentalist (1.3) bounce back a bit from last week's bad drop. It could well get even better for the Boss when it gets national overrun help the next two weeks.
  • On ABC, Once Upon a Time (1.7) has positively limped to the finish after such a huge early fall, declining by another three tenths on fall finale night. It's definitely going to be interesting to see what this show can piece together in the spring with the Frozen storyline done. To be fair, it can lay much of the blame on this night at the feet of a completely invisible Disney special (0.5) at 7/6c. And to round off a rotten ABC night, the two-hour Barbara Walters' 10 Most Fascinating People special (1.4) at 9/8c was down massively year-to-year (vs. a 2.2 on a Wednesday last year).
  • Despite having the national overrun, Fox went with repeats of The Simpsons (2.0) and Family Guy (1.4). They led into originals of Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.5) at 8:30 and Bob's Burgers (1.2) at 9:30, which basically managed non-overrun numbers with the lessened lead-ins.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Backstage with Disney on Broadway 0.5 22% n/a -60% -64% 0.8
Once Upon a Time 1.7 38% -15%-0.3-0.8 11/11 -11% -17% -13% 2.0
Barbara Walters' 10 Most Fascinating 1.4 23% -36% +24% +22% 1.7
ABC:-10%-12%
60 Minutes 1.6 18% +0%+0.0n/a 8/13 +7% +3% +3% 1.8
Undercover Boss 1.7 24% n/an/an/a 1/1 +6% +31% -33% 1.8
The Mentalist 1.3 20% +18%+0.2+0.4 2/3 n/a +13% -49% 1.4
CSI 1.2 21% +0%+0.0+0.2 8/10 -33% -4% -37% 1.5
CBS:+10%-32%
Football Night in America p2 2.1 44% +62%+0.8n/a 6/15 +110% +62% +110% 2.4
Football Night in America p3 4.1 42% +11%+0.4+0.8 6/16 +17% +8% +11% 4.2
Sunday Night Football 8.6 45% +21%+1.5+0.4 4/17 +54% +20% +52% 8.1
NBC:+5%+30%
NFL Overrun 8.7 41% +7%+0.6n/a 8/15 -1% +0% -12% 8.0
The OT 4.4 44% -15%-0.8+0.6 6/8 -19% -15% -19% 2.7
The Simpsons (R) 2.0 51% -31% -43% 1.5
Brooklyn Nine-Nine 1.5 54% -29%-0.6-0.9 9/11 n/a -29% -38% 1.5
Family Guy (R) 1.5 60% -35% -50% 1.7
Bob's Burgers 1.3 65% -19%-0.3-0.8 5/7 -46% -19% -46% 1.4
Fox:-15%-27%
Big4:-1%-5%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

16 comments:

Spot said...

FOX's scheduling is truly puzzling. Are they planning to air B99 early or something? Because otherwise I cannot understand why the show has to endure airings after simpsons repeats. They should have just given it a one hour fall finale last night to take advantage of the overrun.

OUAT's drop is truly concerning, I don't know what to think. I hope it rebounds in the spring like it managed to do last year.

CBS did quite decently. Undercover Boss did quite well and the mentalist rebounded from last week's very odd point, though I was still expecting a bit better from it.

Spot said...

I guess people truly are sick of Frozen. And it started so strongly too. Quite a shame.

Don't get Brooklyn's run through. Is it for Bordertown?

Spot said...

Barbara Walters airing in usual Resurrection timeslot. How fit.

The Mentalist soon moves to Wednesday vs Laura. It will be interesting to see if (weak but crossoverish) Mentalist chips away more from Laura than (strong but not much crossoverish) Survivor did.

Here's idea for Brooklyn Nine-Nine next fall:
Thursday : MasterChef Junior / B99 / new comedy

Idea is not to waste MCJ on New Girl in its (probably) penultimate seasn, and Mindy in its last season. They can risk with something unproven leading into that low priority block.

Wed: Scream Queen / Sleepy Hollow
Tue; new dramedy (or new reality) into New Girl / Mindy
Mon: Gotham / new drama
Sun: repeat / Bob / Simpson / Bordertown / Family Guy / some comedy

Spot said...

I like it. I would only add that if Last Man on Earth does well enough for renewal, that could be the comedy paired with B99 instead of a new one.

The only problem I have with your idea is the eternal issue of how to schedule masterchef jr for the entire season. 7 episodes really are very shot seasons.

Spot said...

I like this schedule, FOX really needs their comedy depth to be more than their animations.


But knowing them they'll throw Mindy on fridays unless it's still profitable based on its W18-34 ratings.

Spot said...

FOX choosing to have bad ratings, shakes my head.


OUAT is at full Resurrection season one trend, no, I don't expect it to go all the way down to low 1s, but it is going to settle around a typical league-average drop year to year as this 1.7 rating showed.


Why isn't Undercover Boss on fridays at 8, CBS? And they knew TAR was in a declining trend already, premiering to a series low during its last sunday cycle

Spot said...

Question: CSI has 18 episodes, ten aired already despite two football preemptions. The 11th is going to air next week. Then it comes back on january 4th.


CBS has three preemptions during awards/NFL playoffs season: january 18th (AFC Championship Game), february 1st (Super Bowl) and february 8th (Grammy Awards), Battle Creek premieres on march 1st but CBS has only room to air 16 CSI episodes, the last one being against the Oscars.


Those football preemptions screwed them, could CBS air an episode after the AFC Championship (seems like a waste putting a 15-year old show to get that promotion when they could air Scorpion or NCIS: New Orleans)? Or is the show getting double pumped, preempting The Good Wife (The Good Wife has episodes scheduled for the first two weeks of january)?


I can't figure out what they'll do, in fact, CBS sundays in january are weird, they'll air two episodes (one against the Golden Globes), then take a break, then have one sunday avaliable (1/25) and then they'll be forced to take the first two weeks of february off because they broadcast the Grammys and no one is crazy to schedule originals against the Super Bowl (unless it's a burn-off like Til Death, FOX might use it to get rid of Mulaney next year).

Spot said...

I have commented on the weirdness of CBS's Sunday schedule before. They are using their filler during the holidays season and then are left with unprogrammed Sundays during the season which is weird. But here is my guess:
21/12: Boss | Mentalist | CSI
28/12: Boss | Mentalist | CSI (according to their own press release, all 3 shows air originals on this night)
04/01: Madam Secretary | The Good Wife | CSI
11/01 (against globes): Madam Secretary | The Good Wife | CSI
18/01: NFC + Scorpion probably
25/01: Repeats + CSI + CSI
01/02 (Super Bowl): Filler
08/02: Grammys
15/02 (Oscars): Filler
22/02: Madam Secretary | CSI | CSI (finale)
01/03-29/03: Madam Secretary | The Good Wife | Battle Creek
05/04: Academy of Country Music Awards
12/04: Madam Secretary | The Good Wife | Battle Creek
19/04 (Easter Sunday): Some sort of special + Battle Creek
26/04-17/05: Madam Secretary + The Good Wife + Battle Creek

This assumes 24 episodes for Madam Secretary, 22 for The Good Wife, 18 for CSI and 12 for Battle Creek. If they are committed to airing all 13 of Battle Creek in the season, then The Good Wife has to air on Easter Sunday and Battle Creek requires a two hour season finale on 17/05. But I have no idea why they are bringing the dramas back on January for two weeks. It would make a lot more sense to simply start them on 22/02 instead of 01/03 and air them on Easter Sunday. But well.

Spot said...

Despite the horrible way it limped through the finish, all in all I still think ABC can be satisfied with the way their Sundays went for the fall. They were up 10% year to year (the best trend of any weekday on any network not named The CW) and they became a clearly second tier day among ABC's weekdays, on par with Mondays, clearly below Wednesdays and Thursdays and clearly above Tuesdays and Fridays. Last year I think it was practically tying Fridays systematically. In terms of competitiveness with the other networks, they were a strong second (1.75) to FOX (1.98) and ahead of CBS (1.55). They have a lot of work to do moving forward here, but in terms of balance of the fall, they should be happy.

Spot said...

Does Brooklyn have like a 25 episode order? They've given New Girl larger than usual seasons before. Maybe they have having extra episodes to spice up a potential future syndication package.

Spot said...

It looks about right for me (except 2/15 and 2/22, which are probably switched since the later date is the Oscars).


I agree about the split season being something way better, both Madam Secretary and The Good Wife are serialized dramas with some self-contained plots, similar to Grey's Anatomy, they could've aired two MS episodes in january and then bring it back on march 1st just to keep people aware of it and because they could fit 24 episodes, but I would have mixed feelings to place a show against awards and football, although the first two weeks in january are the easiest ones down that stretch since the football games are in the afternoon and the Globes are the "lowest" rated award. Then, as OUAT and Revenge could see back in 2013, their shows would be on-and-off for two months.

Spot said...

Doesn't Masterchef Jr skew heavily female and Brooklyn Nine-Nine skew heavily male?

Spot said...

Not heavily.

Spot said...

Ah you are right, I had messed up my excel somehow with the Oscar dates. But then I've changed my idea. I think they will simply air originals in Easter Sunday and Madam Secretary will be brought back with the good wife only on 01/03, I don't think they would bring it back 15/02 and then have it on a week break right after. I've revised my schedule above to reflect this. Now it really assumes a two hour finale for Battle Creek, though I am still only able to do 12 episodes of it in the season.

So it wouldn't be possible to air more episodes of MS/TGW in the spring instead of the Winter ones. I suppose they should have tried to postpone Mentalist | Boss for two weeks and double pump them but all in all there really isn't a lot of space left.

Spot said...

Not that I am aware of but it's possible I suppose.

New Girl had that 25 episode order in Season 2 but I think that was because it had to air two extra episodes on premiere night (to serve as lead-in not only for Mindy but also for Ben and Kate) and later on I assume FOX didn't want to let Mindy air without an original lead-in. But truth to be told, I don't understand why networks don't force the comedies to air 25 episodes a year. I cannot imagine production time being the problem since it is literally half the duration of a drama and some of those produce 24 and there is precedent for it. Maybe not for monsters like TBBT or MF that actually repeat well but stuff like New Girl could certainly use a regular 25 episode order.

Spot said...

On Black Friday I commented that you cannot program children's programming at 9. Let me amend that statement: "you cannot program children's programming at 9 unless Charlie Brown, Rudolph, or the Grinch is leading in"

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