Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Friday 12/5/14

  • FINALS UPDATE: Grimm (1.2) adjusted up to avoid tying its low. The Pac-12 Championship was just a tenth above the prelims at 1.9.
  • Fox had a rare night of Friday leadership thanks to the Pac-12 Championship Game, which had a preliminary 1.8 from 9:00-11:00 and figures to adjust up once the West Coast viewership is accounted for.
  • Opposite a stronger Fox, no entertainment programs really had anything to crow about. Cristela (0.9) hit a new low, putting it on pace with year-ago occupant The Neighbors. It was the only series to hit an outright low, but plenty of others like Last Man Standing (1.2), Shark Tank (1.8), Grimm (1.1) and Constantine (0.8) tied or were very close to their season low points. The NBC dramas had a worse lead-in than usual from holiday special How Murray Saved Christmas (0.9), while CBS also failed to score much traction with its 9/8c special A Very Grammy Christmas (0.8).
  • Only The Amazing Race (1.2) and 20/20 (1.4) grew vs. the previous episode, while the two-hour finale of America's Next Top Model (0.4) was flat.


A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Last Man Standing 1.2 23% -8%-0.1n/a 6/9 -14% +50% -14% 1.3
Cristela 0.9 25% -10%-0.1-0.1 8/8 n/a +0% +0% 1.0
Shark Tank 1.8 32% -10%-0.2-0.1 6/10 -10% +57% -10% 2.0
20/20 1.4 28% +17%+0.2+0.7 5/11 +27% +22% +27% 1.6
The Amazing Race 1.2 24% +20%+0.2n/a 2/10 -43% +20% -23% 1.3
A Very Grammy Christmas 0.8 21% n/a -16% +0% 1.0
Blue Bloods (R) 0.8 15% +14% -30% 1.3
How Murray Saved Christmas 0.9 32% n/a -31% -38% 1.0
Grimm 1.2 31% +0%+0.0-0.4 4/7 -25% -4% -25% 1.5
Constantine 0.8 32% -11%-0.1+0.0 6/7 n/a -11% -30% 1.2
Pac-12 Championship Pregame 0.7 39% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +0% -58% 0.8
Pac-12 Championship 1.9 40% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +322% +153% 2.2
America's Next Top Model 0.4 44% +0%+0.0n/a 1/15 n/a -11% +14% 0.4
America's Next Top Model 0.4 44% +0%+0.0n/a 1/16 n/a +33% +33% 0.5

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.


Spot said...

I don't think Cristela is in danger because of one 0.9 data point, If season average would be so low, then it probably would be. But it's not so low (it's 1.06 now, I think), and probably it won't drop so low.

However, I think Cristela is having big problem with ABC not having place for it on their next fall schedule. Let's look at options.
1. If ABC renews Last Man Standing, do they really want to keep this LMS/Cristela combo? I'd say they would only if they would have no other option. Because this 1.2 / 0.9 is sign of things to come: I expect same (or a bit worse) ratings during low PUT spring, and same (or a bit better) ratings next fall, if this block would return intact. Surely ABC aims for better, and they would launch new multicam behind LMS.

2. If ABC cancels Last Man Standing, do they really want Cristela into new multicam into Shark Tank? Looks like awful idea, surely ABC can do better with scratching that comedy block, and trying reality show at Friday 8 PM.

3. Would ABC break up (well working) Wednesday lineup next fall to make room for Cristela? No. Because of promising rookie, maybe. Because of Cristela, no way in hell.

4. If ABC moves one Wednesday comedy to anchor Tue 8 PM hour (or Mon 9 PM), would they want it to lead into Cristela? No, they would put a new show at :30 half-hour. Because they know they would get low 1s from Cristela, while for rookie at least there's theoretical chance it would break out.

5. If ABC leaves Wednesday intact, would it want to pair Cristela with new show in 3rd weekday comedy block? No, it is similar to my option 2 (Cristela with rookie at Fri 8 PM), and makes even less sense.

Spot said...

I think the only way Cristela gets renewed is if LMS is renewed and if they don't love any of their multicams in development. If LMS is axed, I don't see any way Cristela survives.

Spot said...

Yes, that seems the only way. ABC wanting to keep that Friday block + awful multicam development slate.

It's no secret I would like ABC to schedule Friday as reality into Shark Tank into 20/20. And for that reason, I would like Cristela to collapse. As for the show itself, I watched only pilot, and it was OK. It's only that I'm more of a singlecam person. If other episodes are on the same level, I can understand why people whom are into multicams would like it,

Spot said...

I am not sure CBS actively planned to have Wednesdays be this repeat free but the fact is that it will be almost 100% originals the entire year!

The 9pm hour preemptions are:
- Opening Wednesday: Survivor/Big Brother combo
- This week: double survivor episode
- 17/12: Survivor fall finale
- 07/01: People's Choice Awards
- 18/02: The Mentalist two hour season finale
- 25/02: Survivor/TAR combo
- 01/04: The Doveleepers
- 20/05: presumably, Survivor season finale

That's 8 preemptions!

Moreover, the 8pm hour will be originals the entire year due the mentalist fill-in and so will the 10pm due to the stalker+cyber timesharing. Due to all these originals, they are certain to win the day against ABC who will suffer from the normal number of repeats.

Spot said...

ABC could do well returning LMS to the Tuesday lead-off spot and finding a male-leaning companion for 8:30 to lead into SHIELD. Tuesday pretty much has to be the network's Guys Night, and that feels like an on-paper LMS fit even though it's got a bog-standard gender balance (61-39 female).

Spot said...

In theory, that is good solution for getting rid of that unfortunate Friday comedy block. But there's too many moving pieces for it to have realistic chance.
1. First, they would need to scratch that Friday block. We'll see, one can only hope ABC by now learned no good came out of it.
2. For remaining 3 blocks, ABC would need to want 5 returning comedies, with only 1 newbie. It depends on their pilots, and while it's possible, it's unlikely.
3. Like you said, maybe they really want male oriented Tuesday, and LMS wouldn't fit well into that plan. Despite Lee's verbal support to SHIELD, it's impossible to tell what Lee is actually thinking about Tuesday schedule, if he is thinking at all.
4. Last Man Standing will be at 86 to 88 episodes after this season, so studio might not want more episodes. Usually producers want it, but this is show that already for this season was renewed in the very last minute, as ABC didn't want to renew it until 20th Century Fox TV reduced license fee. It might be that it doesn't pay off for 20th to produce new episodes, maybe their calculation shows all future profits from syndication would be eaten by discount they're giving to ABC.

Spot said...

I do think that Last Man Standing and Cristela are a kind of package deal, and not just because they are both produced by 20th Century Fox. At this point I don't think there's much of an upside being hammocked between LMS and Shark Tank, so if ABC is going to keep a comedy block here at least one of the sitcoms has to be cheaper than average to balance out the higher cost of LMS. Cristela has a no-name, inexpensive cast and thus fits the bill. Either both shows are canceled or both are renewed.

Plopping LMS or Cristela into Wednesday would ruin the single-cam family flow of the show. Slotting one or both of them on Tuesday is possible to create a comedy block at 8:00, but they would run into the buzzsaws of NCIS and The Voice. Unless ABC wants to get really creative* with scheduling (shortening Dancing with the Stars to 90 minutes on Mondays? Swapping the comedy block with America's Funniest Home Videos?!), it's Fridays or bust.

*:And by "creative" I mean dumb.

Spot said...

Good for Grimm for staying strong with a weaker lead in than usual. Of couse that was probably counteracted by 5-0 not being new

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