FINALS UPDATE: 20/20 (1.2) adjusted up while
Dr. Ken (0.8) and
I Love Lucy Christmas Special (0.8) and
Pac-12 Championship Pregame (0.6) and
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (0.2) adjusted down.
WHAT MATTERS:
- ABC was the only big four network with original scripted programming on Friday, as comedies Last Man Standing (1.1) and Dr. Ken (0.9) returned at pretty normal levels. ABC rounded out the night with an average Shark Tank (1.2) and a well-above average night from 20/20 (1.1).
- Fox took a rare Friday victory thanks to the Pac-12 Championship Game (1.6/1.7), with a preliminary 1.1 for the pre-game show in the 8:00 hour. The game had a 1.9 when it was last on Fox Friday two years ago.
- At least in the prelims, the CW had an above-average Friday with The Vampire Diaries (0.4) on the uptick and Crazy Ex-Girlfriend hoping to hang onto its first 0.3 of the season.
- CBS had its annual hour of colorized I Love Lucy episodes (0.9), down two tenths from last year's special on December 23, leading into repeats of the veteran crime dramas (0.6/0.7).
- And NBC had high-end results for Caught on Camera (0.7) and Dateline (1.1/1.2).
FINALS UPDATE: Saturday Night Football (3.3) and
Big Brother (1.4) and
NASCAR (0.9) adjusted up while
ABC Fall Preview (0.9) adjusted down.
WHAT MATTERS:
- Low-viewed Labor Day Weekend was not a fun time to be an entertainment program. On Sunday, Big Brother (1.3) tied its season low (from a special Friday airing in August). It still looked great compared with the weekend's other non-sports options on broadcast, including the penultimate weeks of BrainDead (0.3) on Sunday and Aquarius (0.2/0.2) on Saturday.
- The return of college football was big news for ABC, including a solid return for Saturday Night Football (2.4), which should end up very close to the year-ago 2.7 opener. The network also had huge business from a special Sunday night game, which averaged a 3.0 in the prelims and may get better after finals since it ran way out of primetime. NBC countered on Sunday with primetime NASCAR (0.8).
- Leading into ABC's Sunday game was its annual fall preview special (1.1) in the 7:00 half-hour. This is probably gonna come down a lot in finals since it includes West Coast football viewing, but maybe the football halo can keep it ahead of last year's 0.6 on a Friday?
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: The Voice (2.5) adjusted up while Blindspot (1.3) adjusted down along with the 8:00 Big Bang (1.4) and Gotham (0.5). The NCAA game averaged 4.52 on TBS, 1.07 on TNT and 0.31 on TruTV for a total of 5.90.
- For the second straight day, the broadcast networks were overshadowed by a big cable event, this time as the NCAA men's basketball championship moved to cable (TBS) for the first time. Most of the broadcasters ducked the event, but the big reality properties and their lead-outs powered through. NBC got whacked against the game last year, but it was even worse for The Voice this time, with a 2.4 rating that was down four tenths from last week. And Blindspot (1.4) followed it down to a new low.
- ABC's older and more female-skewing lineup held up much better, with Dancing with the Stars (1.7/1.8) unfazed and Castle (1.2) up a tick. (EDIT: Apparently ABC might have been pre-empted, perhaps in the basketball local markets?)
- The other three networks were all in repeats, led by CBS' The Big Bang Theory (1.5/1.6), Scorpion (1.0) and NCIS: Los Angeles (0.8). Fox had Gotham (0.6) and Lucifer (0.6), while CW had iZombie (0.2) and Jane the Virgin (0.2).
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: Sleepy Hollow (0.7) got a big finals uptick to avoid a new low. The March Madness games had a 1.3 and 1.9, down a lot from last year's 1.6/2.5.
- Only a couple networks were in the original entertainment game on this Friday; Fox saw Sleepy Hollow (0.6) take an unfortunate hit to a new low, but NBC had nothing unusual with Caught on Camera (0.7), Grimm (0.9) and Dateline (1.0). The assumed series finale of Second Chance was even at 0.5.
- CBS had March Madness (1.7/1.5/1.6), which will end up trailing last year's 1.6/2.5 on the same night.
- ABC had repeats of Last Man Standing (0.7), Dr. Ken (0.7) and Shark Tank (0.9) leading into an original 20/20 (0.9). CW repeated the vampire shows (0.2/0.2).
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: Grey's Anatomy (2.1) adjusted up and The Blacklist (R) (0.5) adjusted down. Each of the two basketball games (1.5/2.3) were down four tenths from the year-ago edition.
- ABC's post-How to Get Away with Murder Thursdays will remain a struggle for another year, it appears, as The Catch opened with just a 1.2 demo rating and 5.8 million viewers. It skewed particularly old, retaining well over 90% of Scandal's total viewership but dropping by 25% from Scandal (1.6) in the demo. It seems that this didn't tap into the core TGIT audience despite being branded as part of the night. It was 40% behind last year's 2.0 American Crime premiere (which, to be fair, had nearly double the Scandal lead-in). And like Crime, it couldn't even get to How to Get Away with Murder's series low on premiere night. It will need an exceptional post-premiere hold to have a shot.
- At 8/7c, Grey's Anatomy (2.0) inched down but held off the ones for another week.
- CBS had another night of March Madness coverage, averaging a 1.9/1.8/2.1 in the prelims. More after finals, but it looks like this will not match the 1.9/2.7 finals for the games on this Thursday last year.
- It was very quiet elsewhere, with American Idol posting another 1.7 rating. NBC plowed through with another week of You, Me and the Apocalypse (0.6), The Blacklist (R) (0.6) and Shades of Blue (1.0). And the CW had repeats again (0.4/0.3).
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: Grimm (1.0) adjusted up and Shark Tank (1.3) adjusted down.
- After a weak start to its primetime March Madness coverage on Thursday, CBS perked up considerably for another three hours on Friday (1.4/2.2/1.7), featuring a 14-over-3 upset in the early game and a nail-biter in the late game. This should crush what CBS did on the opening Friday last year.
- Despite CBS' strength, the entertainment programming competitors were unfazed, including a one-tenth uptick across the board for ABC's lineup of Last Man Standing (1.2), Dr. Ken (1.0), Shark Tank (1.4) and 20/20 (1.2).
- NBC and Fox were business as usual, with the former airing Caught on Camera (0.7), Grimm (0.9) and Dateline (1.0) and the latter going with Sleepy Hollow (0.8) and Second Chance (0.5).
- CW had repeats of The Vampire Diaries (0.2) and The Originals (0.1).
WHAT MATTERS:
- The second season finale of How to Get Away with Murder posted a typical 1.4 rating, down by exactly half from its strong season one closer (2.8 on 2/26/2015). As usual, the biggest winner in the TGIT lineup was easily Grey's Anatomy (2.1), which matched last week despite airing in the hour that should be hardest hit by Daylight Saving Time. Scandal inched down to a new low 1.6 (though it had a prelim 1.6 last week and adjusted up).
- With two blowouts on its air, the first primetime night of March Madness on CBS averaged a preliminary 1.2/1.3/1.3 across the three hours. This will end up significantly below last year's 1.6/1.8 opening games.
- American Idol (1.6/1.7) was seemingly the only real DST victim on this Thursday, taking another hit to its ratings with the series end just three weeks away.
- NBC struggled again in the opening hours with You, Me and the Apocalypse (0.6) and a repeat of The Blacklist (0.5) but built big at 10/9c with Shades of Blue (1.0).
- And the CW began a two-week hiatus for its Thursday lineup with repeats of Legends of Tomorrow (0.4) and The 100 (0.2).
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: The Bachelor (2.0) and Scorpion (1.4) adjusted up.
- It was not a great night for college football as its title game averaged 25.667 million viewers and an 8.26 A18-49 rating (ESPN telecast only), down over 20% year-to-year on both counts. After a huge spike last year, this game basically reverted to the total viewership level of other games since the move to ESPN. But it was the lowest 18-49 rating since 2008 and the third-lowest in our 15-year records.
- The College Football Playoff Championship Game on ESPN provided a good excuse for a quiet night on broadcast, but NBC and ABC plowed through with their winter filler lineups. Perhaps with an assist from a weaker ESPN game that featured two teams in the South/Southeast, these shows held up a bit better than last year.
- The biggest drops came from NBC's 8/7c comedies. Superstore (1.5) was still a good lead-off option but took a three-tenth hit from last week, and Telenovela (1.0) took a three-tenth hit of its own. These shows had to deal with not just game coverage but also comedy competition as CBS filled Supergirl's off night with even stronger repeats of The Big Bang Theory (1.9/1.9).
- The Biggest Loser (1.0/1.1) rounded out NBC's night with a modest decline in the last two hours.
- And on ABC, The Bachelor (2.0/1.9) dropped somewhat as well, but that actually left it up in raw numbers vs. last year's rating
against the big game (when it dropped to 1.8). The after-show Bachelor Live (1.0) was even.
- The other three networks went into/stayed in repeat mode against the big game:
- CBS: The Big Bang Theory (1.9/1.9), Scorpion (1.3), NCIS: Los Angeles (1.0)
- Fox: MasterChef Junior (0.9/0.8)
- CW: Whose Line Is It Anyway? (0.4/0.4), Penn and Teller: Fool Us (0.4)
College Football Championship Games
WHAT MATTERS:
- Even with big College Football Playoff games on ESPN, it was generally a good night for the New Year's Eve special programming on broadcast.
- ABC's Dick Clark's Primetime New Year's Rockin' Eve with Ryan Seacrest exactly matched last year's big ratings with a 2.3 in the 8:00-10:00 window and a 3.9 in the 10:00 hour.
- Year two for Fox's Pitbull's New Year's Revolution (0.8/0.9) actually picked up a little steam year-to-year, beating the 0.7 in primetime in 2014.
- The only real negative was NBC's New Year's Eve Game Night with Andy Cohen (1.0), which paled in comparison to recent primetime airings of New Year's Eve with Carson Daly (including a 1.5 last year). 8:00-10:00 special A Toast to 2015! (1.0) matched last year's special.
- As for those CFB Playoff games, the household overnights (9.7/9.9) were substantial yet down over a third year-to-year from the enormous New Year's Day overnights a year ago (15.5/15.3). The games were not particularly exciting, but this kind of slippage goes down as a pretty clear strike against airing the games on the much more crowded New Year's Eve, when work and parties are a much bigger factor. Still, it's unclear how much the NCAA can do about it, since this arrangement was largely about protecting the Rose Bowl's traditional New Year's Day window.
- CBS averaged 0.6 with repeats (led by 1.0 for The Big Bang Theory) and the CW had a 0.3 for a repeat iHeartRadio special.
CFB on Fox
Saturdays, 7:30/6:30c, Fox
Saturday Night Football
Saturdays, 8:30/7:30c, ABC
WHAT MATTERS:
- Sunday Night Football opened its Sunday run with a preliminary 9.2 rating. This is likely to eke out a double-digit rating in the finals, and it will definitely beat last year's 9.0 final for the Sunday opener.
- ABC's Miss America (1.5) was slightly down year-to-year. (My records have the 2014 edition at 1.7 but it looks like it may have adjusted down to 1.6 due to the Nielsen glitch.)
- CBS' lineup including Big Brother (2.1) was bumped by NFL overrun. 60 Minutes and BB may not have started at their scheduled 7:30 and 8:30 times in all markets (though I think they did in mine), so let's wait for finals!
- On Saturday, ABC averaged a preliminary 2.2 with Oregon at Michigan State football, similar to the 2.1 this game averaged last year on Fox (when it was the season high for CFB on Fox by a very wide margin).
Above based on preliminary adults 18-49 ratings unless otherwise noted. Full table forthcoming!
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: Saturday Night Football held the preliminary 2.7, putting it 42% above last season's opener. Big Brother (1.7) and Bachelor in Paradise (1.1) both adjusted up on Sunday.
- The few Sunday broadcast originals stayed on the air for low-viewed Labor Day weekend, which was not a good thing for the ratings of Big Brother (1.6) and Bachelor in Paradise (1.0/1.1). Big Bro took a half-point week-to-week hit for this telecast last year, and it will be at least that big this time compared with last Sunday's 2.2. Bachelor in Paradise was down at least two tenths itself. A lot of the Sunday cablers also tried to power through this weekend (including TNT's The Last Ship finale), though Fear the Walking Dead sat out.
- Also on Sunday, NBC won the night with a preliminary 1.1 for four hours of NASCAR.
- Saturday brought a promising start to college football, as ABC's Wisconsin/Alabama averaged a preliminary 2.7 from 8:00 to 11:00 that will surely outrate last year's 1.9 Saturday Night Football premiere. NBC averaged a prelim 1.1 with Texas and Notre Dame.
The acclaimed season preview Best Case/Worst Case is back for a fourth season! This is a "sneak preview" edition, just looking at some of the soon-to-premiere news and sports series that are not exactly the main draw on this site. Since the interest in these shows is relatively low, and since I haven't completely finalized the format, both the tables and the writeups will be a somewhat condensed version. Don't worry, each show's previous timeslot occupants and best case/worst cases will be back once we get into entertainment programming, starting on September 14.
WHAT MATTERS:
- With no 1.0 ratings on broadcast for the last couple Saturdays, the excitement has come with basketball on TBS. Kentucky/Notre Dame topped 3/28 with a whooping 4.89 rating, while the Final Four games on TBS on 4/4 got 3.25 and 5.48. As with most of the late part of the tournament, those were a huge improvement year-to-year; the Final Four games last year got 2.07 and 3.40.
WHAT MATTERS:
- Without its usual Last Man Standing lead-in, a lead-off hour of original Cristela (0.8/0.8) went even lower than usual, another bad sign for the ABC bubble show.
- NBC saw Grimm (1.0) down a tenth in its second 8/7c week. Hart of Dixie signed off for the season and seemingly series with its usual 0.4. And Fox began a run of Friday movies with Grown-Ups (0.9), which did better than its usual 2015 series lineup on the night.
- CBS averaged a 1.9 in preliminary March Madness ratings, which would significantly trail the same night last year (2.3/3.6).
- Quick programming note: I'm out of town next week. I'll try to do daily updates, but they will likely be later than usual. There's a Best Case/Worst Case and a couple First Two Weeks posts scheduled to go up early next week, but no more full tables/Vault updates/Questions till at least Sunday, April 5. I can't 100% promise I will get the April 5 Question up, but I will do my best.
Above based on preliminary adults 18-49 ratings unless otherwise noted. Full table forthcoming!
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: American Crime (1.3) adjusted up. The CBS games (1.9/2.7) had virtually the same final ratings as the first Thursday last year (2.0/2.6).
- It looks like Scandal (2.3) is officially in crisis, as it preliminarily lost yet another tenth from last week's already alarming number and is now down a full point in just a month. It's equally staggering that this has happened while its lead-in Grey's Anatomy (2.2) is still showing no signs of problems whatsoever. We'll see next week if Grey's has benefited from no The Big Bang Theory the last couple weeks, but this kind of dynamic between the two shows is quite surprising. American Crime remained mired at 1.2.
- On Fox, Bones (1.3) was back from a 3.5-month hiatus at a tenth above the fall finale and about on par with what it did for most of the late fall run, while Backstrom (0.9) hit its usual low number with a weaker but probably more compatible lead-in.
- And NBC preliminarily saw a new low for The Blacklist (1.6). More on the March Madness ratings after finals!
WHAT MATTERS:
- Saturday basketball action on CBS (1.6) was significantly behind last year's opening Saturday (2.2).
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Here are War of 18-49 records for currently airing news/sports series.
