Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Monday 12/8/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Downward adjustments put The Great Christmas Light Fight at a very solid 1.7, well above anything from its three-week run last season (including last year's 1.4 premiere). However, Castle (1.4) adjusted all the way down to a new series low. The picture brightened somewhat for Mike and Molly (1.9) after a finals uptick, putting it just a tenth behind its 2BG lead-in.
  • CBS' return to original programming saw 2 Broke Girls (2.0) bounce most of the way back from its major stinker a couple weeks ago, and Scorpion (2.1) also had its best rating in four episodes. But the network didn't get much out of the return of Mike and Molly (1.8), only managing to premiere at the same 90%ish retention of 2 Broke Girls that it tended to score when they aired a half-hour later last year. That's a definite step up from what The Millers brought to the slot, but not exactly by a runaway margin.
  • On NBC, another very low edition of The Voice (2.5) led into State of Affairs, steady at its mediocre 1.6.
  • ABC had great preliminary numbers for the return of The Great Christmas Light Fight (1.9), but the finals will change that since it was preempted in both Monday Night Football markets. Fox's repeats fell to sub-CW levels, and CDub's Jane the Virgin (0.5) was up a tenth.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Great Christmas Light Fight 1.7 32% n/an/an/a 1/1 +21% +6% +13% 1.7
Castle 1.4 24% -7%-0.1+0.1 10/10 n/a -7% +40% 1.6
ABC:+2%+20%
2 Broke Girls 2.0 33% +25%+0.4n/a 4/6 n/a +67% +67% 2.0
Mike and Molly 1.9 30% n/an/an/a 1/1 -27% +58% +58% 1.9
Scorpion 2.1 27% +11%+0.2+0.4 8/11 n/a +83% +27% 2.0
NCIS: Los Angeles 1.6 23% +7%+0.1+0.2 5/10 -33% +60% +52% 1.7
CBS:+69%+45%
The Voice Mon 2.5 29% -11%-0.3n/a 12/12 -29% -11% -18% 2.4
State of Affairs 1.6 32% +0%+0.0-0.3 2/4 n/a +0% -27% 1.6
NBC:-8%-20%
Gotham (R) 0.6 36% -40% -68% 0.7
Sleepy Hollow (R) 0.4 32% -73% -82% 0.7
Fox:-60%-75%
The Originals 0.6 54% +0%+0.0n/a 5/9 n/a +50% +50% 0.6
Jane the Virgin 0.5 52% +25%+0.1+0.0 2/8 n/a +25% +233% 0.5
CW:+38%+100%
Big5:-0%-13%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

35 comments:

Spot said...

Last year the Great Christmas Light Fight had a 1.7 in the prelims and was adjusted down to a 1.4 in finals I believe.

Spot said...

- CBS had a decent night but I thought Mike and Molly would be higher. But 2 Broke Girls back to a 2.0 are great news for the network. Despite all the bashing that show gets for all the decline it suffered, it's still one of the strongest comedies around IMO. Scorpion is back up above a 2.0 which is good but could be even better and LA is hanging in there .I expect to see the entire lineup increase by multiple ticks in the winter with the voice gone. And in any case Mike and Molly seems to have positively affected the whole night even if the number itself pulled was underwhelming.
- The Voice is really bleeding. State of Affairs didn't do as bad as the preliminary results suggested but it's not a success either and should be low 1s with the apprentice.
- These repeat numbers are the reason why I thought FOX should have gone with Gotham+Sleepy Hollow, Gotham+The Following, Wayward Pines + The Following. Their shows repeat horribly so that should be minimized. But I can see the point of keeping Gotham on the schedule the whole year, but still, it hurts to see.

Spot said...

That The Voice isn't rallying with DWTS out of the way is worrisome. Not that there's much that NBC can really do about it this season, and it's still a Big Hit for the network, but moving forward the network needs to figure out what's going on here.


Scorpion at least got a bounce, but how much was due to DWTS being gone and how much was because CBS was stronger at 8:30 with Mike & Molly? I guess we'll see come January.

Spot said...

When is MNF over? Is it still on by January? If not, I would expect that to be another reason to expect Scorpion to inch upwards. The entire CBS Monday night slate should have a good winter IMO.

Spot said...

Well, to be fair, Gotham did pull a 1.0 for a repeat yesterday, which was in line with how their sole procedural Bones (.9) repeated this season. The thing was it was the Pilot that casual viewers could watch and get into no problem. Now it is middle of season episodes of a serial drama, episodes that have already been repeated to death on Friday. It does suck though as their only good repeaters left are Bones (which looks to be ending this year of next), The Simpsons, and Family Guy. The latter which was been repeated more times this season than has been original!
.
This is why it would be really nice for Backstorm to be a success for them, because they may soon be left with no well repeating dramas. Even if Empire is a hit (which I give it a decent chance at moderate success), it isn't going to repeat well.

Spot said...

Mike & Molly's last four premiers have gone 4.8, 3.1, 2.6, 1.8. This is not a very good trend -35%, -17%, -31%. I mean its not like its lead ins haven't dropped big too (7.4, 3.7, 2.6, 2.0), but I still wish it would have shown more muscle. It's not even its best retention for a premiere (65%, 84%, 100%, 90%), but it did at least grow in total viewers. But 90ish% retention with small viewer growth was been the trend with 2 Broke Girls since spring 2013.

Spot said...

Does anyone know if there was a big football game last night? I'm not sure where all the casual viewers went. It's freezing cold where I live, Christmas is still far enough removed people shouldn't be doing holiday things, Dancing with the Stars is gone, FOX is even in super weak repeats to help out. The President didn't come on Colbert until after prime time!

Spot said...

December 22nd is the last MNF.

Spot said...

Packers-Falcons, not Cowboys big but it featured a popular team and a big market team that no one cares.


The game was good too, casuals probably went to ESPN yesterday.

Spot said...

If Empire remains a midseason drama to pair with Idol (which would be a feasible plan IMO), it wouldn't really need to repeat well since it wouldn't need to be repeated to begin with IMO.

But back to Gotham, like I said, I understand why FOX wants it to remain on the schedule until May - they want to avoid another limited series meltdown and keep awareness high (benefiting from their highest rated non animated show during May Sweeps is also likely to be a plus). But their overall average will be excessively hurt by this. Even if Wayward Pines was not going to be a big success it would do better than repeats. FOX is saving it for summer, which is all pretty and nice for year round programming (which I normally strongly advocate) but FOX has no depth to be doing such a thing right now. I don't get the point of programming strongly for summer if your regular season in in shambles like their season is. That's why I would rather have Gotham finish in early April or so (which is still pretty close to the end of the regular season to allow for high awareness) and for Wayward Pines to take over afterwards. It will be awkward when the following systematically has to lead-off sub 0.5 levels that Gotham repeats will be pulling in March and April.

Spot said...

The Packers have a very passionate fan base and a bigger-than-average name in Aaron Rodgers. No one really cares about any NFC South team this go-around since they all have a losing record this season.

Spot said...

An interesting fact about recent trends (with all the caveats you may want to associate with it):

If you start looking at the season just on week 6 (the week after TNF was over), the year to year trends for each network are the following:
- CW: +2%
- ABC: +1%
- FOX: -17%
- CBS: -18%
- NBC: -18%

That's right folks. The FOX that we all know to be having "the worst season in the world" has had a year to year trend pretty much in line with CBS and NBC. Really shows how much TNF was masking things up for CBS and how much the voice has collapsed in the last month for NBC. Obviously the first 5 weeks did happen and FOX still has the worst decline overall and all that, but I just think it's interesting how easy it is to reduce that difference and how badly the seasons are quietly going for CBS and NBC without anyone saying much about it.

Spot said...

About M&M's future, does CBS let it run for six or seven seasons? It has always been a second tier comedy for them and Melissa McCarthy's movie career might start to be a bigger interference. I can't see it getting canceled when the premature cancelation for The Millers and the end for Two and a Half Men limited CBS possibilites lineup-wise.


@omabin and I previously discussed (on spoilertv) if CBS could go for two or three hours of comedy next season and they'll probably keep Mike and Molly for midseason again, right now CBS has three renewable comedies for next fall (TBBT, 2BG and Mom), they need to believe on likely fraudulent ratings from The Odd Couple unless they want to premiere two new comedies next season or start Mike and Molly in the fall.

Spot said...

Thanks.

Spot said...

You said on spoilertv that The Voice is down 15% y2y, just a comparsion, how down was it during weeks 1-5 and how down has it been since week 6? After all, thursdays underperforming, being nothing new from NBC, isn't something hurting them a lot, TBL is up in plus compared to the comedies and Parenthood is even (or a bit up, don't know without checking). Meanwhile, they've suffered a double-effect when it comes to underperfoming on their stronger nights, monday and tuesday, The Voice is underperforming and so are its lead-outs.


I might say CBS' biggest reason for those drops after week 6 is obvously thursday considering the point you've picked the trend, but that stat you showed about how nearly every hour from them is down double-digits year to year proves how badly they need their new shows to succeed considering their aging lineup. After week six, mondays at 8 (no tbbt and comparsion to HIMYM), wednesdays at 10 and fridays at 8 are probably the biggest non-thursday losers.

Spot said...

I don't see how CBS can lose Mike & Molly any time soon. I'd say M&M is at worst their third-strongest sitcom, tied with Mom, going into next season. And given that CBS hasn't launched a sitcom that saw a third season since 2 Broke Girls, nor renewed a midseason sitcom since Rules of Engagement (good luck, The Odd Couple), it's even more valuable in that swing role that Rules occupied.


CBS, Warner Brothers, and Chuck Lorre will bend pretty far to keep Melissa McCarthy happy and signed on for as long as possible.

Spot said...

It's 3 comedy hours 100%. Because CBS won't gave up neither of 8 PM blocks tor sure, while it makes absolutely no sense to give Thu 9 PM to a drama now that both Scandal and The Blacklist.

They have 4 clear renewals + The Odd Couple might be 5th.
They will premiere 2 new fall comedies.
If The Odd Couple is renewed, then Mike& Molly and 3rd rookie go to the bench.
If The Odd Couple flops(8which is hard to believe given lead-in), then bench would consist of 3rd and 4th rookie.

Spot said...

I agree with this.

Spot said...

I really don't think The Following is going to get a fourth season, so it may be a moot point anyway. In fact, giving Gotham the full-season treatment to prevent Wayward Pines from taking over the slot come Spring makes it more likely that The Following's cancellation is a fait accompli.

Spot said...

All the freshman big bang theory lead-outs have flopped and been cancelled, except for the millers, but that one clearly showed that it should have been cancelled as well being yanked after just 5 or 6 episodes into its sophomore season. So it's not hard to believe a new show airing after TBBT will fail. After Shit My Dad Says, Rob! and How to Be a Gentleman, it got so bad that CBS put 10 year Two and a Half Men in the slot. That's not inspiring.

We've talked about this but I still am not sure they will want to do 3 hours. If they have a development season as bad as this year or two years ago (in which the mcharthys and partners emerged as frontrunners for god sakes), they won't premiere 2 new comedies in the fall, I am pretty sure. And 3 hours would require them to either lead-off with a new comedy with is always risky or to force Mom into a role it is clearly not ready to assume (and CBS's reluctance to give it 9pm this spring is evidence they think the same). Meanwhile, if Scorpion heats up, doing Scorpion/New Drama/LA on Mondays would be an attractive proposition, while using comedy to program against TGIT and NBC on Thursday as you suggested (on that we agree).

Again, I am not saying it will happen, but the odds aren't as slim as you suggest. Certainly not 0%.

Spot said...

Maybe you're right. But I would argue there's at least a part of it that depends on how the following does upon its return this year. Last year it bottomed out with a 1.4 which would still be miles above FOX's fall flops (Utopia, Red Band, Gracepoint), higher than Ramsay's Kitchen and pretty much comparable to Bones, Sleepy Hollow and Masterchef Jr.. That's not a horrible situation to be in heading into the season. Certainly not a good either, but it's not an obvious bottom of the hour show. And if FOX does go for a surrender Bones-Sleepy Hollow Thursday next fall, The Following would fit right in on the same wheelhouse.

Spot said...

They went "no repeats" last year with Bones/Almost Human/Bones. And they end up with massive sophomore slump The Following, a cancelled Almost Human, and Bones hurt big by the jerk around. Both Sleepy Hollow and The Following are both basically independent of lead in and have both gone up with a repeat lead in before, so I don't think its a huge deal. The Following will continue to decline wheather it is behind repeats or a huge lead in. Sleepy Hollow will continue to do mid 1's regardless.

Spot said...

According to thefutoncritic preliminary W18-34 is 0.6 for The Originals (tying a season low) and Jane the Virgin 0.7 (tying a series high).
If those ratings hold in finals, Jane would best its lead-in in both shows' target demo for the first time ever.

I don't know why CW didn't announce their midseason schedule yet. Could be some PR reason. But could also be they're still not sure if Jane or Reign is going to Friday.
I'm definitely not sure which one should go.

Pro Jane staying on Monday (and Reign going to Friday) :
1. Jane clearly being less weak, average is now 0.61 vs 0.53 W18-34.
2. Jane hit that 0.7 yesterday, and 2 x 0.6 in last 4, while Reign had 3 x 0.5 in last 4.

Pro Reign staying on Thursday (and Jane going to Friday) :
1. Those are rather low ratings, and both actually deserve to be cancelled. But if iZombie flops, they need to renew one of this not at all dynamic duo, and it would be logical to pick Reign due to higher episodes count. So why move Reign to Friday if they incline to renew it?
2. Reign going to Friday would mean iZombie is launched against deadly Scandal / Blacklist combo.

If I was Pedowitz, I'd just flip coin here.

Spot said...

I agree with you, but I would also agree with Silvio when it comes to The Odd Couple being very close to be a certain renewal despite being a fraud.


CBS probably renewing TOC tell more about the fall from grace CBS has had comedy-wise and about how TBBT's strenght only grows compared to their schedule, it used to average close to 200% of their scripted average two years ago already, but now it is at 238% as of yesterday (The Flash, the closest show to outperform its network performance averages 195% of CW's scripted ratings).


It reached Voice territory already compared to the other shows, NBC renewed every fraud Voice created, CBS will do the same with TBBT. It's just way stronger than it is when it led to Rob, How to be a Gentleman or Shit my Dad Says.

Spot said...

In regards to NBC, I was wrong in my previous comment, I was speaking without checking up the facts. The Voice was actually down more the first 5 weeks than the second 6 weeks (16% vs. 11%), comparing the Monday editions only. It appears that what's truly hurting NBC is that they had 4 hours of the voice for the first weeks of the season and they were down to 3 at the end of week 4. That hurts a lot, especially because they replaced that hour with the lowest rated Monday-Wednesday hour of their schedule which is the Tuesday comedy hour. Another reason is that during the first 5 weeks Mondays at 10 was down 13% year to year and during the second 6 weeks it is down 32% thanks to State of Affairs. Also, Thursdays at 8 was up 6% during the first 5 weeks and was down an hefty 33% during the second 6 weeks (though that includes the sound of music vs. peter pan comparison). All in all, NBC is down a considerate 15% year to year (curiously mimicking the voice's own decline), having been down 11% the first 5 weeks and 18% the second 6 weeks.

As for CBS, that one is, like you've said, easy to explain, since the first 5 weeks were really affected by TNF (both on Monday due to TBBT and on Thursdays due to the inexistence of that day). Considering the last 6 weeks only, these are the most problematic slots:
- Mondays at 8: -35%
- Tuesdays at 8: -22%
- Tuesdays at 10: -27%
- Thursdays at 10: -31%
- Fridays at 10: -27%
- Sundays at 8: -21%
- Sundays at 9: -23%

That's 7 slots with declines higher than 20% and two of them with declines higher than 30%. That's just horrible regardless of how we try to spin it. As a result, CBS is down 12% year to year, having been down 3% during the first 5 weeks and down 18% the second 6 weeks. From 3% to 18%... that's a lot!

Spot said...

It's very very intriguing why they haven't announced it yet. They have to do it this week I suppose, otherwise it gets ridiculous. Same for NBC not announcing what the hell will air Thursdays at 8 before the blacklist. Surely they need to start increasing promotion for that lineup and I don't see how not announcing the lead-off show will do it any favours. Before I thought they were waiting for State of Affairs but now they have enough information about it already, they won't know more until the apprentice premieres and they cannot possibly wait until then I think.

Spot said...

Three CBS dramas at Monday is improbable. Networks avoid dramas at 8 PM at a all costs. That's Scheduling 101. And that just makes me more than 100% sure in 3 blocks of comedy. I mean, now that I see how bad is alternative.

CBS will premiere 2 new comedies in fall. There's no doubt in it after they got only Mom from last 3 cycles. They would maybe premiere 3 new comedies if they would have enough anchors.

About The Odd Couple: News flash, the bar is set much lower at CBS today. So, renew (confident).

Spot said...

That's a nice argument you've got there, but I am still not totally convinced. Last season Modern Family was a bigger relative hit (or at least comparable) since it was performing at 205% of ABC's comedy average at season's end and that still didn't save Mixology or Super Fun Night.

Besides, The Big Bang Theory is now at 170% of CBS's comedy average which is huge, yes, but not that much higher than when it first anchored Thursday and launched those flops (it was around ~135% by then).

Besides, I am really not sure CBS would willingly renew the odd couple if it became apparent it was a fraud. If the show was renewed and if CBS intended to keep 3 hours of comedy next season, the show would likely have to be moved away from big bang theory so it would easily be exposed, crash a comedy hour and its lead-out and ending up having to be pulled a la the millers. I don't think CBS would want to go through that public embarrassment two years in a row. So I would tend to believe that if the show is to be renewed, it will be out of merit (which is entirely possible, don't misunderstand me) and not if it is a known fraud a la the millers.

In any case, if the odd couple is renewed they will for sure keep 3 comedy hours. If it isn't, then everything is fair game IMO. I could easily see them keeping M&M and simply go with TBBT, 2BG and Mom into the fall while launching a new one.

Spot said...

Networks avoid new dramas at 8pm, yes, but Scorpion would have been a proven hit in my scenario, just sliding back an hour. And you would be launching the new thing among two known quantities, not at 8pm. Besides, networks do have dramas at 8 pm, that's not some unwritten rule.

You say there is no doubt they will premiere 2 new comedies next fall after they only got Mom the last 3 cycles. Again, i disagree. If development isn't there, CBS won't go for it. Last year, they were coming of drama cycles in which they had only Elementary (a utility player at best), POI (initial promise but turned into utility player as well by the time), Blue Bloods (Fridays only) and H50 (which had to be moved to Fridays as well) and they still only premiered Hostages. Why? Development wasn't there. Sure, you can argue that these 4 dramas are better than only Mom, but if you compare the amount of dramas with the amount of comedies they need, I'd say this is a pretty comparable situation.

So I say that CBS will go for 2 new comedies if they have a good development season (like last yea when they premiered 4!) but they will only premiere one new comedy if they have another Partners/McCarthys development season, in which case it is likely they reduce comedy hours - why would CBS insist on putting two McCarthys-like on the schedule instead of a drama they were high on (especially if it is one they produce)? It comes down to development!


About the odd couple, ABC was also desperate for comedies two years ago and they had renew-worthy How to Live with Your Parents at 110% of their comedy average but they still cancelled it and decided to instead premiere 4 new comedies the following fall.

Spot said...

Given The Following's trajectory, I think sub-1's are a possibility this season. Unless it has some incredible gender skew there's no positive projection for the show.

Fox can do a surrender night on Wednesday/Thursday because American Idol gives them a natural reset button to do whatever they like to the night come January. I'd rather see them aim a little higher with Scream Queens & Sleepy Hollow on Thursdays or Wednesdays and save Bones for midseason since next season's order will be in flux depending on how many episodes they can get before a hiatus for Deschanel's pregnancy.

Spot said...

Maybe they still don't know what to do with state of affairs, it seems to not be budging either way, or maybe waiting a few weeks to see how it does without the voice.

Spot said...

I cannot seriously believe they will wait until the apprentice to premiere to announce and promote what will air thursdays at 8 at the end of the same month.

Spot said...

I don't think they will, they might just wait until a few episodes of the voice. SOA is almost halfway through the season. Ratings on the show aren't budging either way, they aren't dropping yet they aren't going up that much either.

Spot said...

On a different note I did like the light fight show on abc, that was cool and fun!

Spot said...

I honestly think they'll just put Hollywood Game Night there.

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