Thursday, December 4, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Monday 12/1/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The Voice (2.8) was up 0.1.
  • On a much less competitive (and less interrupted) night than the November sweeps Mondays, NBC's State of Affairs was desperate for a week three rebound. It got one, but a 1.6 probably isn't enough to really change the picture here. It will have to keep going up in the final post-Voice weeks (or hold up extremely well after The Voice leaves) to get meaningfully back in the mix.
  • Elsewhere, ABC went with two-hour special CMA Country Christmas (1.6, up a tick from last year when it aired at 9/8c) into Castle (1.5), tying a season low with its worst lead-in of the season. Fox's Sleepy Hollow (1.5) fall finale hit a pretty typical rating despite a repeat lead-in from Gotham (1.0). And CBS aired four Mike and Molly repeats (1.2 / 1.2 / 1.2 / 1.1) on the Monday before its premiere.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
CMA Country Christmas 1.6 23% +7% -34% -9% 1.5
Castle 1.5 23% -12%-0.2-0.9 8/9 n/a -14% +7% 1.5
ABC:-30%-4%
Mike and Molly (R) 1.2 25% -25% -60% 1.2
Mike and Molly (R) 1.2 27% -20% -56% 1.3
Mike and Molly (R) 1.2 30% -43% -50% 1.2
Mike and Molly (R) 1.1 28% -42% -48% 1.2
Scorpion (R) 1.0 25% -33% -9% 1.2
CBS:-32%-46%
The Voice Mon 2.8 32% +8%+0.2n/a 10/11 -18% +7% -17% 2.6
State of Affairs 1.6 29% +14%+0.2+0.2 2/3 n/a -14% -50% 1.4
NBC:+9%-28%
Gotham (R) 1.0 42% -57% -41% 1.0
Sleepy Hollow 1.5 42% +7%+0.1-1.3 8/11 n/a +3% +67% 1.5
Fox:-32%-4%
Grandma Got Run Over by a Reindeer (R) 0.4 36% -38% +0% 0.4
Greatest Holiday Commercials Countdown 0.4 45% n/a +14% +0% 0.4
CW:-20%+0%
Big5:-20%-23%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

17 comments:

Spot said...

The voice had what 11 million? SOA had 7, that's still a good drop. I'm predicting it will lose steam once the voice ends.

Spot said...

Sleepy Hollow had its best result of the season IMO. From an academic point of view, it's damn annoying that it came on a night that A) Scorpion was not airing and B) Gotham was a repeat both happened, as we can't really know for sure which tends to impact it more. I would tend to believe that the Gotham lead-in is doing nothing for it, in which case not moving it looks really unacceptable at least for next year.

Spot said...

I'm surprised how big of a drop for the voice to soa, went from 11 million to 7.

Spot said...

We also have to take into account Dancing with the Stars is out of the picture too. Roughly 2 points of competition went away between Dancing and Scorpion.

Spot said...

I'm a little disappointed in Castle. Yeah, it didn't have the best lead in, but CMA Country Christmas isn't Skating with the Stars or Extreme Home Makeover bad. No Blacklist or NCIS: LA either

Spot said...

It looks like Sleepy Hollow may just be a show that'll do its own thing regardless of lead-in. If that's the case, I'd move it for season 3 to Wednesday or Thursday and give Fox's most promising newbie the best scripted lead-in it can provide. And Sleepy Hollow's limited-run status would help Fox fill the gap between American Idol seasons.


I'm not trying to be retentionista about it. But when you (State of Affairs) have a lead-in (The Voice) that's over a point stronger than the competition (CMA Country Xmas) and you barely eke out a win against a show (Castle) that had its worst lead-in so far this year, that's a bad sign. And that win could tick down to a tie in finals. Seems likely that State of Affairs could drop down to Mysteries of Laura-esque numbers, or lower, once Celebrity Apprentice comes on the scene.

Spot said...

I agree about Scorpion and Sleepy Hollow, hence my previous comment.

But I am not sure if there is really a big overlap between Sleepy Hollow and DWTS. And it's not like the Christmas special did that much worse in raw numbers. It did a 1.5 and DWTS used to hang around a 2.0, so that's half a point less from something that I see as being pretty much incompatible, so meh. Not with Scorpion though.

Spot said...

Well, Dancing spiked for the finale last week. That's why it might make a difference. I think it proved its independence from lead in at the season premiere with a series low 2.0 out of a 3.2 Gotham. I feel like it would have hit a 2.0 even if it had a say 1.7 Bones as a lead in

Spot said...

Yes but Sleepy Hollow has been around the 1.5 mark all season, so I don't see why the DWTS spike would have made much of a difference.


As for it proving to be lead-in independent on premiere night, that could also be seen as a weak show that would do even worse were it not for the lead-in. You always need data points without the lead-in to prove otherwise imo, or else I can always make that argument!

Spot said...

I agree about Sleepy Hollow. But I was already arguing that since October or so, as the show isn't really taking advantage of the lead-in. They should probably do Bones | Sleepy Hollow on Wednesdays and call it a day. What they do with Thursday remains a mystery but I suppose Ramsay will be back for the rescue once again.

The Mysteries of Laura has been the biggest gainer from the last 3 weeks. State of Affairs falling to its levels is making it look really really good.

Spot said...

I think Castle has underperformed this year. Last fall it was usually building on DWTS. Now that DWTS is back to being stronger, Castle should at least stay even to accompany it, not fall. Being down 15% year to year isn't awful especially considering LA's presence but it looks worse because of DWTS's good trend IMO. I see Shield as ABC's clear fifth drama now.

Spot said...

For sure, Agents of Shield managed a 1.5 out of a .7 Manhattan Love Story. I'm really hoping Toy Story/Charlie Brown had go 3.0+ and give Shield a nice midseason finale boost. It's not impossible here. Last year Toy Story of Terror got a 3.1 and this year Charlie Brown's Halloween grew from the Toy Story Halloween. Bonus points that CBS is in repeats!

Spot said...

I agree. However, and even a good lead-in will certainly help Shield a bit to give it some casual audience tune-in, I don't think it would be a dramatic effect. Like Spot eloquently said in his best case/ worst case, it's kind of the opposite situation of Sleepy Hollow: both shows have their own audience so they shouldn't either be propped up too much by big lead ins (Sleepy Hollow) or be terribly brought down by the lack of them (Agents of Shield). Some casual viewing audience will always make a difference and I think Shield's usual 1.6-1.7 could turn into much nicer 1.9-2.0 with something resembling a lead-in (not necessarily one higher rated than itself, just something that is able to cross the 1.5 barrier), the same way Sleepy Hollow sans Gotham and with regular competition (aka scorpion and DWTS) will be 1.3-1.4 instead of usual 1.5-1.6., but in general I think these are shows with a small propensity to be very affected by lead-ins.

Spot said...

That is already the biggest of "2015 Upfront Questions, ABC".
Do they plan to surround SHIELD with compatible peaces (in a process of building male oriented Tuesday), or Paul Lee's support to SHIELD is just lip service?
If Agent Carter breaks out, problem is solved. That is, if it's possible to make it 22 episodes show from the next season on.
But as it is now, they don't have solution. OUAT is not compatible, it would be insane to move it to Tuesday. And while moving Shark Tank to Tuesday 8 PM would be good short term fix, long term but it would be real disaster.
All in all, if ABC actually wants SHIELD to last more than 4 seasons, they need to develop some new male oriented shows

Spot said...

I agree, ratings are ok now but the real test is when the voice ends.

Spot said...

I agree with you. I really think they have no other option than doing so (that is, developing male skewing dramas and turn Tuesday into a male skewing night). They cannot develop enough female skewing dramas to keep 2 drama heavy nights afloat (Sunday and Thursday), so doing it on Tuesday as well would be really hard, not to mention running the risk of saturation IMO.

I think if The Whispers (or Carter, assuming that could do 22) works out, the problem becomes significantly easier because then they would be looking at one new male drama and not two at once though.

What's more intriguing to me is that for a long time ABC developed male skewing dramas without having any proper place to put them (V, Flash Forward, Last Resort, Zero Hour) and now they have decided to stop doing so. Granted, these examples aren't the best because they all flopped but how much of that was due to the show and to the slot is debatable. They should continue trying IMO.

Spot said...

Carter isn't possible for 22 I believe. I'm actually okay with that. They have a lot more famous people than Shield ever did.

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