WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: The picture darkened a bit for Backstrom after finals, as it adjusted down to 1.9 while its American Idol lead-in was up to 2.8. (It's another piece of good news for Idol, though, which was up two tenths vs. last week's two-hour episode.) The Vampire Diaries (0.8) gained a much-needed tenth to get back to pretty normal levels, while Mom (2.4) adjusted down to tie last week's episode. The Bad Judge finale (0.7) lost a tenth.
- Fox's Backstrom (2.0) had a relatively reasonable start, going three tenths above last year's Rake launch despite Idol (2.7) dropping more than 20% from 52 weeks ago. But it's worth reiterating that the Rake premiere was an unmitigated disaster, so even a decidedly better start doesn't necessarily put it on track for a success. It's on the map, but much more competition looms in the weeks ahead.
- CBS had another successful comedy night against the light competition, as Mom (2.5) actually grew from its The Big Bang Theory repeat lead-in (2.4), Two and a Half Men (2.3) upticked and another TBBT repeat (1.9) livened up the 9:30 slot vs. yanked The McCarthys.
- The CW had a soft Thursday return with The Vampire Diaries (0.7) and Reign (0.4) each below average.
- As ABC and NBC wrap up their filler lineups, ABC's The Taste (0.8) finished a weak third season by dropping a tenth, while the penultimate episodes of The Biggest Loser (1.2) and Parenthood (1.3) were each at average levels.
WHAT MATTERS:
- The Big Bang Theory went back into repeats (2.5), but the rest of the CBS lineup didn't suffer too much. In particular, Mom (2.4) seems like a more impressive performer in these post-repeat airings than when TBBT is original. Two and a Half Men (2.1), The McCarthys (1.5) and Elementary (1.3) also took modest drops.
- It wasn't a good second Thursday for American Idol (2.6), which took a big drop vs. the first three nights and saw the year-to-year gap widen compared to the opening Thursday (it was 24% behind 2014's second Thursday). This does not bode that well for next week's Backstrom launch.
- NBC and ABC continued playing out their filler lineups; ABC's The Taste (0.9) was even, but NBC had week-to-week drops across the board, including from The Biggest Loser (1.1) and Parenthood (1.2).
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: Despite a finals downtick, Mom (2.7) still held onto its new series high. The Big Bang Theory (4.6), Two and a Half Men (2.3) and Elementary (1.5) all adjusted up for CBS, as did Fox's American Idol (3.1).
- The two-hour Thursday premiere of American Idol (3.0) was pretty close to Wednesday's rating, and down by a slightly more reasonable 23% vs. last year's Thursday premiere. Idol jumped noticeably across the night (2.5 -> 2.9 -> 3.2 -> 3.4), further suggesting that the Wednesday comparison suffered unfairly from the episode being just one hour.
- It was another night of above-average ratings on the other networks, though the usual CBS January comedy explosion was somewhat limited by Idol being around earlier than usual. The biggest winner was definitely Mom (2.8), which hit another new series high. But The Big Bang Theory (4.5) was well down from the mid-5's it pulled in the pre-Idol January weeks last year, and Two and a Half Men (2.2), The McCarthys (1.7) and Elementary (1.4) similarly had only modest week-to-week growth.
- ABC and NBC were still low, but at least a bit better than what they've posted in recent weeks. Reality series The Biggest Loser (1.3) and The Taste (0.9) each rebounded noticeably from last week's ugly numbers, while Parenthood (1.4) returned at a tie for its season high.
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: With Thursday Night Football hitting a runaway season low (just a 1.6 on NFL Network) in two small markets, adjustments were minimal. Only Elementary (1.3) and the 8:00 Bones repeat adjusted down. That meant Mom (2.3) finished at a noticeable 0.3 points higher than its last episode after a repeat two weeks ago.
- Pending preemptions, CBS' Mom (2.3) and Two and a Half Men (1.9) took hits with a repeat lead-in from The Big Bang Theory (2.3), while The McCarthys (1.6) and Elementary (1.4) were even. These numbers may adjust down a bit due to a Jacksonville football preemption.
- These numbers came against virtually no competition on the other networks. NBC saw The Biggest Loser (0.9) get into truly disastrous territory, and it led into an unwatched new awards show called the People Magazine Awards (0.8). But somehow that combo was still enough for second place against ABC with The Taste (0.8) and Fox with Bones repeats (0.8 pending a preemption). Compared to these stinkers, the CW looked like a winner with the iHeartRadio Jingle Ball special (0.6), up a tenth year-to-year.
- Programming note: I won't be doing updates based on preliminary ratings for the next two weeks, but I'll have a few roundup posts as the finals trickle in. Happy holidays!
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: The finals were not too harsh to CBS adjustment-wise, leaving the network with some pretty favorable numbers in spite of a new season low for The Big Bang Theory (3.9). Mom (2.6) tied its season/series high, Two and a Half Men (2.3) and The McCarthys (1.6) both zoomed up to near their premiere numbers and Elementary (1.4) hit a new season high. The CW's night brightened further as The Vampire Diaries upticked to 0.9, putting both its dramas at a tie for their season highs. But Bones got no finals help, so the new season low 1.2 sticks.
- As usual, any observations about Thursday's top-ranked lineup on CBS (including the return of The Big Bang Theory in originals) will have to wait for finals due to preemptions in both of the Thursday Night Football markets.
- Though there's not much Thursday competition these days, not many shows stepped up:
- NBC's regular series in the first two hours were back for the first time in three weeks; The Biggest Loser (1.1) tied its season low at 8/7c, though Bad Judge (1.1) hopped up in its first episode without Scandal competition. (Hey, maybe the Shonda audience would've been interested in a Kate Walsh comedy after all!)
- ABC's The Taste (0.8) inched down in week two.
- Bones had another preliminary new low 1.2 (though the last one ended up adjusting up), while the Gracepoint finale (0.9) was even with last week but slightly above most of the middle of the run.
- The CW perhaps fared best of all, as the fall finales of The Vampire Diaries (0.8) and Reign (0.5) were each up a tenth.
The Taste
Thursdays, 8/7c, ABC
WHAT MATTERS:
- FINALS UPDATE: After finals, Mom (2.0) and Two and a Half Men (1.9) ended up noticeably above their Thanksgiving numbers but below what they had been getting after original Big Bang. The McCarthys (1.4) was pretty much back to normal, while Elementary (1.2) was even with Thanksgiving (and thus above the last couple ratings against TGIT and Parenthood). Peter Pan Live! adjusted up to 2.4, making the drop from Sound of Music less than half.
- NBC's second stab at a live musical event did not capture the national attention to nearly the same degree. Peter Pan LIve! (2.3) managed merely half of last year's The Sound of Music Live! rating and was pretty soundly rejected across the half-hours (starting at 2.7 and ending with a mere 1.8 at 10:30). Though the Carrie Underwood-fueled numbers from last year were always going to be extremely difficult to replicate, I'd guess NBC is at least a bit disappointed here. But this rating is likely still strong enough to keep the tradition alive for now. It looks worse than it is because of how enormous last year's event was.
- ABC began its two-month TGIT hiatus with a soft start for The Taste (0.9), which only tied the low point from last season and was down nearly a third from last year's 1.3 opener. It may benefit in future weeks from NBC going lower, but this wasn't the start ABC wanted.
- Elsewhere, Bones (1.5) had a decent uptick with no competition from The Big Bang Theory or Grey's Anatomy. And we'll visit CBS after finals, as the network was heavily inflated by pre-emptions in both of the large Thursday Night Football markets.
Welcome to the final Best Case/Worst Case of 2014, visiting a five-pack of premieres straggling across the last weeks of the year. Though many of these are short-order schedule fillers, I'm excluding some of the very short-order schedule fillers. (Sorry, The Sing-Off
and The Great Christmas Light Fight
!)
WHAT MATTERS:
- Fox's new drama Rake premiered to a measly 1.7 demo rating and 7.1 million total viewers, dropping about half of its lead-in from American Idol (3.4). This may have been a conceivably OK number later in the season against full-strength competition. On this night, it means you can pretty much forget about it... unless the audience's reception was remarkably positive. (As for Idol, it was 35% below last season's second Thursday, and it still hasn't even faced an original CBS lineup yet.)
- Among the low-rated original fare elsewhere, ABC's The Taste (1.1) bounced back somewhat against a weaker (and one-hour) Idol, but NBC's Community (1.1) and Parks and Recreation (1.2) saw no such rally. And the finals changed the picture for the CW, which was up a tick for the 100th The Vampire Diaries (1.2) and even with the return of Reign (0.6).
WHAT MATTERS:
- If Wednesday's premiere of American Idol (4.7) brought a little bit of hope back to the franchise, the Thursday premiere (3.9) was far less encouraging; it was nearly 20% off of the Wednesday number against less competition (including CBS' comedies in repeats), and down 30% year-to-year. For comparison, the 2013 edition had a 6.0 Wednesday premiere and only dropped to 5.6 on night two.
- Even with Idol a disappointment and CBS sitting out, most of the originals on ABC and NBC got massacred. NBC was down big in the 8:00 hour with Community (1.1) and Parks and Recreation (1.2), but the particularly unreal result came at 9:30 as The Michael J. Fox Show hit a 0.6!
- And ABC was way down with competing reality series The Taste (0.9), but Shark Tank (1.2) proved a massive improvement on cancelled The Assets. When The Assets was pulled, I wondered if ABC should consider moving The Taste to 9-11 to avoid Idol, and it's hard not to feel even stronger after this result.
The Taste
Thursdays, 8/7c, ABC
WHAT MATTERS:
- It looks like the premiere magic for Community has finally run out. The show came back at about a third behind last year's 1.9 premiere. The good news is that it would still likely get renewed with this kind of number. The bad news is that there's an alternate explanation; maybe this was another inflated premiere, and a sub-1.0 level is what we'll see moving forward. For now, it's still a far, far better option than still-crumbling comedies Sean Saves the World and The Michael J. Fox Show, which each hit their first point-eights.
- I thought I was pretty down on ABC's winter filler mini-series The Assets, but even I wasn't this down. It was hard to see this show getting prematurely pulled given its limited nature, but if it goes down into 0.5 territory next week, it could really put ABC to the test. ABC was also soft in the first two hours (though not nearly as much so) with the return of The Taste. Given its drops throughout season one, it was never going to be close to last year's 2.1 premiere, but this is still likely a bit lower than ABC hoped for. (Though the finals uptick to 1.3 helped.)
- CBS was also back in all-original mode, with The Big Bang Theory getting a bit of its usual early-year heat; it hit its best number since the season premiere doubleheader. The other CBS shows were also up a bit.
- Perhaps limiting these shows' growth a bit was a very strong Sugar Bowl on ESPN (5.2) as Oklahoma upset Alabama. This was up massively on the January 2 game from last year (3.3).
The new year means many new premieres, which also means the return of Best Case/Worst Case! This year, the Winter Olympics somewhat complicates winter scheduling for the broadcasters, and a lot of premiere dates are still TBD. I'm assuming the still TBD stuff won't show up till after the Olympics (though I may have to do an emergency post if not). For now, we'll just visit the premieres
through the end of the Winter Olympics, hitting the Thursday/Friday premieres today and the Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday ones on Monday. There will be another Best Case/Worst Case round for the late February/March period starting the day after the Olympics (Feb. 25).
If you're new to Best Case/Worst Case,
here's what all the numbers mean.
WHAT MATTERS:
- Well, that was fun while it lasted. Celebrity Wife Swap (1.5) took a massive 38% drop from last week's surprising premiere number. I expected it would drop a lot, and it dropped almost twice as much as I expected. The show may bounce back a bit next week once American Idol is out of the mix, but keep in mind daylight saving is coming, and it's heading for a regular Thursday 8/7c timeslot where it'll face Idol every week. ABC's The Taste also took another hit with the lead-in much smaller, but Body of Proof actually upticked after a finals adjustment. I'm just saying, if it gets the kind of boost it got from Dancing with the Stars last year...
- Golden Boy had an above-average week two hold, but that left it just a tick ahead of the last couple eps of already unacceptable Vegas. The expectations won't be high for the move to Friday later this week.
- As for American Idol, its yearly return to its old Tuesday stomping ground didn't even beat CBS' NCIS pair by all that much, and it was down nearly a third from last year's Tuesday tryout (which got a 5.1 a week earlier on the calendar: 2/28/12).
- After finals, Smash got adjusted up, holding off the second episode of Do No Harm!!! (Though it was still a new low.) I have no further comment because I just don't know what NBC will do here.
WHAT MATTERS:
- Broadcast TV's case of the Tuesdays continued, as CBS rounded out a rather shockingly weak season of new shows with the premiere of Golden Boy. This was significantly behind what we think of as a strong CBS 10:00 show, and it barely held over 60% of NCIS: Los Angeles. It was noticeably ahead of recent episodes of Vegas, but probably not noticeably enough to keep the show on Tuesday beyond next week. In a world of scheduling inertia, it likely needs to build next week to get CBS to change its mind. The odds are against that, and a typical week two drop would put it right at Vegas levels.
- The best showing on Tuesday came from ABC's Celebrity Wife Swap, which returned above all of the five-episode run from last winter. But it was of no help to The Taste, which fell to a new low in its move to 9/8c. Body of Proof held on in week two despite a much weaker lead-in, so I guess that's something?
- Cult also held last week's weak premiere audience in week two (and was ever-so-slightly down in viewers).
WHAT MATTERS:
- The big four simulcast the State of the Union Address from 9:00 to 10:30 ET. Timeslot-based preliminaries have the big four averaging in the upper 4's combined (mostly well below last year's prelims), but there won't be finals since there were no ads.
- The only original of the evening was ABC's The Taste, down three tenths week-to-week, but on such an atypical evening this result doesn't mean much.
WHAT MATTERS:
- So, Smash got a 1.2 demo in its second season premiere. I expected one OK week and then a collapse, but we got a collapse right out of the gate, as the show only managed about 60% of its late-season level after The Voice. It had a preliminary 1.3 in the 9:00 half-hour and got as low as a 1.0 by 10:30. It was clear the show was getting a large assist from The Voice last season, but, as with Go On, the extent of that is surprising. Now it's off next week and returns in two weeks after The New Normal. How many people are gonna show up for that? And who really cares at this point? The show had little help from the sequel to last year's Betty White 90th Birthday special, down nearly half from last year (but still not as much as Smash)!
- The news elsewhere was brighter. ABC had a surprisingly strong Tuesday episode of The Bachelor, which actually did better than the Monday episode despite a special night. Does this tell us something about how wide-open things remain on Tuesday? That mojo may have helped with a week-three bounce-back for The Taste.
- Fox remained solid at 9/8c with New Girl, and The Mindy Project is looking increasingly respectable in recent weeks.
- On CBS, last week's Vegas surge was short-lived, as some actual things going on at 10/9c helped send it way down. It adjusted down in finals to tie its low.
WHAT MATTERS:
- The pulling of Ben and Kate helped boost Fox's Tuesday, even if the extra Raising Hope at 8:30 was a bit disappointing itself. (Hope did its usual 1.7 at 8:00.) New Girl and The Mindy Project were both up double digits in the 9:00 hour to their best numbers since October. The size of the boost isn't that shocking in a vacuum, but I'm a little surprised it happened even with Hope doing just four tenths better than Ben and Kate.
- New Girl beat the combined comedy competition at 9/8c, with Go On tying last week's horrible low point. While ABC's Happy Endings double-pump improved 9:30 relative to the usual Apartment 23 numbers, they had bad news at 8:00 with The Taste crashing by nearly 25% in week two.
- Another development of possible interest was the surge of presumed-dead Vegas, free of all its usual broadcast drama competition at 10/9c. We'll see if it can keep it up when ABC/NBC bring their winter dramas into the mix in the coming weeks. NBC's special Dateline edged a rebroadcast of ABC's much-praised Matt Damon hijacking of Jimmy Kimmel Live.
The Taste
Tuesdays, 8/7c, ABC
WHAT MATTERS:
- Has ABC found shows on both nights that do better than their longtime Monday/Tuesday tentpole Dancing with the Stars? If night one is any indication, it looks like a possibility. The two-hour premiere of The Taste did pretty strong business (by ABC Tuesday standards) and sprung its network to a rare winter Tuesday win. It massively outrated ABC's recent comedy strategy. And it no doubt helped out the series finale of Private Practice (1.5), which ended its six-year run by bouncing up to its biggest numbers since the opening few weeks of the season when it aired after Dancing.
- Then there's NBC, which had to have felt at least a tad hopeful last week when Go On recovered a bit in its second week of Voice-lessness. So much for that. Week three of that run was a real goon, dropping nearly 25% to a 1.3 and two ticks below its winter premiere. And Parenthood, a show that has bounced up nicely on finale night in years past, adjusted up after finals but was still down a tick week-to-week and slightly below its season average. (But I'm pretty sure it's still OK!)
- Maybe Fox's comedies finally bottomed out last week, as they made a minor recovery to mirror the January 8 results across the board (though New Girl upticked after finals to a tick above that level). It wasn't enough for Ben and Kate, pulled from the schedule after this airing. And the CW's Hart of Dixie and Emily Owens M.D. each dropped after finals to more normal recent levels, meaning they were probably inflated in the prelims because of basketball pre-emptions.
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