War of 18-49 Update, Community (2013-14)

Let's take a look at the 2013-14 season (the fifth and final overall) of Community on NBC.

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 4/17/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• A curiously packed mid-April night of season finales was of course highlighted by Scandal (3.4), which edged last year's finale (3.2) and tied this spring's premiere on February 27 as the second-highest rated episode in series history. An upward adjustment in total viewers (to 10.57 million) made it a series high in total viewership, barely edging the fall premiere (10.52 million).

• The other three finales were all for bubble shows, and probably the closest thing to good news was Parenthood (1.3) going a bit above average even in a head-to-head with Scandal. Community (1.0) rose a tenth week-to-week, but it also had less competition than usual due to a repeat The Big Bang Theory (2.2). And the loser was CBS' The Crazy Ones (1.6 at 9:00 and a pitiful 1.3 at 9:30), which went well below all previous results when sandwiched by repeat hours at 8 and 10 (though the 8:30 The Big Bang Theory (2.6) provided basically the same lead-in volume as it usually has).

• Fox reality was on the rebound as Hell's Kitchen (1.7) got pretty much back on track with no Shark Tank in the hour and American Idol (1.9) actually tied the Wednesday edition. But following decent holds in weeks two and three, Surviving Jack (1.0) took a week four hit.

• And the CW's nightmare week continued with The Vampire Diaries (0.7) plunging to a new low and Reign (0.4), like The 100 the night before, failing to rally even with an original lead-in reinstalled.

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 4/10/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• It was another very modest weeknight tryout for Shark Tank (1.7), down 15% from its usual amazing-for-Friday 2.0 in a Thursday 8/7c test. I tend to think these things are always set up for disappointment to a certain extent because shows take a hit when airing out of pattern, and Thursday at 8 after DST isn't even that much higher-viewed than its usual Friday 9/8c slot. But this will certainly not serve as evidence that would encourage ABC to move it off of Friday.

• If there was a silver lining for Shark Tank, it was that it at least brought competing reality Hell's Kitchen (1.4) down with it. Ouch.

• The other ugly result was Reign (0.4), which dropped to a new series low in its second episode without an original The Vampire Diaries lead-in. In True terms, this is basically the equivalent of getting a 0.5 after an original. Reign has done that in the past, but not for a little while.

• To round out a rough night, the CBS and NBC lineups mostly inched downward, which meant lots of ties for lows in peacock land: Community (0.9), Parks and Recreation (1.0) and Parenthood (1.1). Only 10/9c dramas Scandal (3.0) and Elementary (1.6) were on the week-to-week upswing preliminarily, though American Idol joined after finals.

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 4/3/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• The return of CBS' Thursday lineup from basketball hiatus was relatively status quo. Everything but The Millers (2.8, rebounding from an off week last time) was within a tenth week-to-week in the prelims, but a downward adjustment for Elementary (1.5) left it down 0.2 and at a tie for a series low. The Big Bang Theory (4.9) did not make a run at the How I Met Your Mother finale for top scripted rating this week, but it should beat it in True (as the PUT estimate was roughly 5 points higher in HIMYM's full 8:00 hour on Monday than in TBBT's 30 minutes on Thursday).

• Week two of Surviving Jack (1.2) on Fox was down just a tenth week-to-week, with American Idol (1.7) down two. The trend might be somewhat promising if it hadn't started poorly last week.

• ABC's Scandal (2.9) gave back its gains from last week, returning to its familiar upper-2's level with both competing dramas back in the mix. And a finals uptick for Grey's Anatomy (2.7) meant it was up for a third straight week.

• NBC struggled most against the return of CBS, with Community (0.9) at a new low, Parks and Recreation (1.1) tying its lowest rating since Community came back, and Parenthood (1.2), like Scandal, surrendering its recent gains.

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 2/27/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• After suffering through a couple miserable premieres over the past few days, it was finally ABC's turn for some good news as their strong Thursday duo returned from 2.5 months off in very healthy form. Scandal (3.4) was up two tenths from its fall finale and Grey's Anatomy (3.1) saw an even bigger bounce, perhaps benefiting from Rake (0.8) providing even less competition than Glee did back in the fall. 

• If ABC was overdue for some good news, NBC was also overdue for some bad. And as usual, the Thursday lineup obliged. Community (1.0), Parks and Recreation (1.0) and Parenthood (1.1) all hit/nearly hit season lows, and Hollywood Game Night (1.2) caught the Thursday disease too in dipping below all its Monday episodes from the winter. (It was only ahead of the Christmas special in December.) Still, at least Game Night was a much better option than the yanked Sean Saves the World and The Michael J. Fox Show...

• CBS' flip of Two and a Half Men (2.5) to 9/8c and The Crazy Ones (1.9) to 9:30 paid immediate dividends, as the former handily outrated TCO's recent 9:00 norm and had a major surge vs. its recent results. And The Crazy Ones didn't even really suffer at 9:30, as its lead-in from Men was only barely weaker than what it had usually gotten from The Millers.

• History's strong drama Vikings (1.3) returned for season two at a number well below last year's inflated series premiere (2.0) but pretty much in line with what it did for the rest of season one.

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 1/23/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• Fox's new drama Rake premiered to a measly 1.7 demo rating and 7.1 million total viewers, dropping about half of its lead-in from American Idol (3.4). This may have been a conceivably OK number later in the season against full-strength competition. On this night, it means you can pretty much forget about it... unless the audience's reception was remarkably positive. (As for Idol, it was 35% below last season's second Thursday, and it still hasn't even faced an original CBS lineup yet.)

• Among the low-rated original fare elsewhere, ABC's The Taste (1.1) bounced back somewhat against a weaker (and one-hour) Idol, but NBC's Community (1.1) and Parks and Recreation (1.2) saw no such rally. And the finals changed the picture for the CW, which was up a tick for the 100th The Vampire Diaries (1.2) and even with the return of Reign (0.6).

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 1/16/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• If Wednesday's premiere of American Idol (4.7) brought a little bit of hope back to the franchise, the Thursday premiere (3.9) was far less encouraging; it was nearly 20% off of the Wednesday number against less competition (including CBS' comedies in repeats), and down 30% year-to-year. For comparison, the 2013 edition had a 6.0 Wednesday premiere and only dropped to 5.6 on night two.

• Even with Idol a disappointment and CBS sitting out, most of the originals on ABC and NBC got massacred. NBC was down big in the 8:00 hour with Community (1.1) and Parks and Recreation (1.2), but the particularly unreal result came at 9:30 as The Michael J. Fox Show hit a 0.6!

• And ABC was way down with competing reality series The Taste (0.9), but Shark Tank (1.2) proved a massive improvement on cancelled The Assets. When The Assets was pulled, I wondered if ABC should consider moving The Taste to 9-11 to avoid Idol, and it's hard not to feel even stronger after this result.

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 1/9/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• The weeks before American Idol returns are always a nice time to run up some numbers, and this Thursday was particularly ripe since the main piece of competition from last week went away (ESPN's 5.2 Sugar Bowl). The shows responded, as nearly everything on CBS and NBC went up week-to-week. The Big Bang Theory, The Millers, The Crazy Ones, Two and a Half Men and Elementary all swung up by multiple ticks. All these shows hit their best numbers since the opening few weeks of the season, and The Millers held in finals to actually tie its premiere rating. Against basically no competition, this night is more of a beauty contest than a real game-changer, but it's certainly better to grow than not to grow.

• Perhaps the night's biggest surprise was infamous post-premiere dropper Community actually growing in week two, and it helped the return of Parks and Recreation to a new season high (which got even higher after finals).

• The only week-to-week dropper was the second episode of ABC's The Assets.

SpotVault - Community (NBC) - 2013-14 Ratings

Community

Thursdays, 8/7c, NBC

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 1/2/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• It looks like the premiere magic for Community has finally run out. The show came back at about a third behind last year's 1.9 premiere. The good news is that it would still likely get renewed with this kind of number. The bad news is that there's an alternate explanation; maybe this was another inflated premiere, and a sub-1.0 level is what we'll see moving forward. For now, it's still a far, far better option than still-crumbling comedies Sean Saves the World and The Michael J. Fox Show, which each hit their first point-eights.

• I thought I was pretty down on ABC's winter filler mini-series The Assets, but even I wasn't this down. It was hard to see this show getting prematurely pulled given its limited nature, but if it goes down into 0.5 territory next week, it could really put ABC to the test. ABC was also soft in the first two hours (though not nearly as much so) with the return of The Taste. Given its drops throughout season one, it was never going to be close to last year's 2.1 premiere, but this is still likely a bit lower than ABC hoped for. (Though the finals uptick to 1.3 helped.)

• CBS was also back in all-original mode, with The Big Bang Theory getting a bit of its usual early-year heat; it hit its best number since the season premiere doubleheader. The other CBS shows were also up a bit.

• Perhaps limiting these shows' growth a bit was a very strong Sugar Bowl on ESPN (5.2) as Oklahoma upset Alabama. This was up massively on the January 2 game from last year (3.3).

The Question, Thursday 1/2/14: Will a Large Community Welcome Back Dan Harmon?

In fall 2013, NBC's attempt to create "broad" comedies blew up even more spectacularly than usual. While a couple of those shows live on out of scheduling necessity, tonight sees NBC give back another Thursday half-hour to one of the old "niche" comedies. Community is back for yet another season in the Thursday lead-off role, and once again it's accompanied by a much-publicized behind-the-scenes shakeup. Creator Dan Harmon is back in the saddle, and the reviews have been very positive. For a show that's developed a habit of premiering well and has an engaged fanbase, this could actually be a difference-maker. Will a large Community welcome back Dan Harmon? That's The Question for Thursday, January 2, 2014.

Winter 2014 Best Case/Worst Case, Thursday/Friday

The new year means many new premieres, which also means the return of Best Case/Worst Case! This year, the Winter Olympics somewhat complicates winter scheduling for the broadcasters, and a lot of premiere dates are still TBD. I'm assuming the still TBD stuff won't show up till after the Olympics (though I may have to do an emergency post if not). For now, we'll just visit the premieres through the end of the Winter Olympics, hitting the Thursday/Friday premieres today and the Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday ones on Monday. There will be another Best Case/Worst Case round for the late February/March period starting the day after the Olympics (Feb. 25).

If you're new to Best Case/Worst Case, here's what all the numbers mean.

The War of 18-49, Community

COMMUNITY (NBC)

Scheduling history: Nearly all of the Community run has taken place in the Thursday 8/7c timeslot. Exceptions: the show premiered in 2009 with a three-week tryout after The Office, it aired at 8:30 once in 2010 after a Halloween special, and in 2012 it aired three episodes on one night (at 8:00, 9:00 and 9:30) to end its season.

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 5/9/13

WHAT MATTERS:

• It was another milestone night for sophomore drama Scandal, which blew away its previous series high and outrated lead-in Grey's Anatomy for the second time in three weeks. (Though the gap was closed to just a single tenth in finals, as Grey's was adjusted up to a very good number of its own.) This result adds another layer of interest to what should be an incredibly interesting next Thursday (with The Office's series finale and finales for The Big Bang Theory and American Idol also thrown in).

• But ABC did have a little bad news as Wipeout returned rather weakly at 8/7c, only improving the slot by two ticks vs. last week's Wife Swap and down 35% vs. last year's premiere (which was in the middle of the summer). It's more important where it ends up in two weeks against summer competition, but this isn't a good start.

• Also posting a pretty solid penultimate result was another one-hour The Office, which had its best "self-starting" number of the season. (It only did better in a post-Voice ep in November.) And the season's last Community (but, as we'd learn later, not the series' last) was a little above average too. Hannibal remained stalled at what looks like an unacceptable number even with a big lead-in boost. But, again, it was a lot better than last year's Awake.

• Fox's Glee finale was up a bit (though nearly a third behind last year's post-Idol finale), but CBS' Person of Interest finale was largely lost in the shuffle, and the penultimate Elementary continued its disappointing late-season deterioration. That show will throw a two-hour finale at Idol, The Office and Grey's/Scandal next week. Good luck.

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 5/2/13

WHAT MATTERS:

• The general direction was "even to up" on the Thursday after the NFL Draft; only American Idol, which had already dropped noticeably on Wednesday, and Scandal, coming back from last week's high point, were on the downswing.

• The biggest gainers were mostly comedies whose audiences had some draft overlap. The Big Bang Theory, Two and a Half Men, Parks and Recreation and Community were all up multiple ticks week-to-week.

• The post-Draft bounceback was much less exciting in drama land. Person of Interest and Elementary stayed at last week's low levels, while Hannibal only got back one of the seven tenths it's given up over the previous two weeks. While that doesn't feel like "enough," keep in mind it's miles ahead of Awake, which only had a 0.7 in this slot last year.

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 4/18/13

WHAT MATTERS:

• NBC's Hannibal had a disappointing week three, dropping a significant three tenths from its fairly good week two number. With the return of original competition looming next week, a good deal of its cushion is gone. But the rest of the NBC evening was more reasonable as Community ticked up again and Parks and Recreation (1.7 at 9:00 and 9:30) was above average in a special one-hour airing.

• CBS' week of repeat experimentation continued with a two-hour comedy tryout, and The Big Bang Theory and 2 Broke Girls combined to equal the last original Person of Interest rating in this hour two weeks ago. It's not so much a win for "scheduling comedy here" as it is for "scheduling The Big Bang Theory in every timeslot, TBS style." Since they can't do that, ultimately the comedy scheduling is probably going to be much more about the new comedies than about these results.

• Fox and the CDub were all original and fairly soft, especially CW anchor The Vampire Diaries, which returned from a couple weeks off at very low levels. (Though it did adjust up in finals to merely tie a low.)

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 4/11/13

WHAT MATTERS:

• Several original programs were able to take advantage of repeats on ABC, CBS and the CW. Most important was week two of Hannibal (1.6), a rare new show to break even in week two. And Community (1.2) began the NBC evening with a multi-tick upswing. Fox was also up in both hours with American Idol (3.1) and another strong hiatus return from Glee (2.4).

Above based on preliminary adults 18-49 ratings unless otherwise noted. Full table forthcoming!

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 3/21/13

WHAT MATTERS:

• CBS' #1 Thursday lineup took its first of two straight Thursdays off for the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. As has been the case ever since the games were spread across four networks, the CBS ratings went well below the normal Thursday entertainment ratings. After finals, the lineup was basically even with the first Thursday of last season, with the first game up and the second game (an absolute massacre by VCU over Akron) down.

• The other networks' ability to capitalize on this was mixed. Namely, Fox and NBC didn't; American Idol took yet another brutal dip, while Community saw no bounce from the absence of competing comedy megahit The Big Bang Theory.

• But ABC and the CW, whose lineups probably have very little crossover with basketball, did benefit. ABC got a very respectable Thursday debut from Wife Swap, while Grey's Anatomy bounced nearly all the way back from its week-ago low point. And The Vampire Diaries and Beauty and the Beast both upticked on the CDub.

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 3/14/13

WHAT MATTERS:

• Took till Thursday, but we finally got a truly brutal post-daylight savings day in ratings, perhaps because there was a higher volume of originals. The damage was greatest in the 8:00 hour, when The Big Bang Theory, Two and a Half Men, American Idol and The Vampire Diaries were each down double-digits week-to-week, while Community gave back all of last week's gains and then some. The only week-to-week positive performance in that hour was Parks and Recreation.

• 9:00 was not spared from the carnage either, as Grey's Anatomy had a rough time as the only ABC original, and Glee took another of its typical second-episode-back drops.

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 3/7/13

WHAT MATTERS:

• We may look back on this as a key Thursday for NBC's Community, which took a significant step up despite airing alongside mostly repeats on NBC and facing pretty close to the full competitive slate. It already may well have the edge over some of its fellow NBC comedy bubblers even with the same 18-49 ratings, because there's so much more 18-34 interest. But if it can permanently pull ahead in 18-49, too? We're probably getting another step closer to #sixseasonsandamovie.

• It was also a strong night from the return of Glee in a special 9:30 timeslot, though I'm not as impressed here as with Community because Glee faced very little competition. And the last episode, vs. which Glee was up 41%, was deflated by Valentine's Day. But it was still somewhat above the show's normal low-2's level. We'll see next week if there's another of its typical "second episode back" drops.

• Yet another American Idol drop meant the show lost head-to-head with Two and a Half Men (preliminary 3.9 to 3.5 at 8:30).

• ABC got instant improvement relative to cancelled Zero Hour by plugging in a repeat of Shark Tank.