Fall 2012 Best Case/Worst Case: The Intro

Three years ago, I began my tradition of posting about every single hour of primetime TV to preview the fall season. We're back for a fourth year, but I'm totally overhauling this thing. There's a ton more content, with more focus on predictions and some of the numbers I've developed in the last couple years. Let me show off a couple of these loaded sample tables so I can explain a few things.

The Basics:

	bc	Rank	y2y	Rank	TPUT	Rank	bc/TPUT	Rank
Monday 8:00	11.6	6	+3%	2	35.8	7	32%	8

Starting with the Monday 8:00 post, I'll have this little table at the top of each post and a quick paragraph of analysis. I'm sure some eyes kind of glaze over at this stuff, but I personally think at least some people might be interested in the "peripheral" info around the timeslot. Here's a quick rundown of what they all mean.

bc = Combined broadcast ratings for the big-five broadcasters. I apply the 10:00 adjustment to all these numbers to try to put the 10:00 numbers on a somewhat level playing field.
y2y = Combined broadcast ratings year-to-year.
TPUT = Overall viewing levels (with the Old Methodology adjustment).
bc/TPUT = Percentage of overall viewing that's on broadcast; a fairly decent measure of how much competition is in the slot.
Rank = The ranks compare these numbers among all 21 8:00, 9:00 and 10:00 hours in primetime.

The Shows:

For my next trick, a big table jam-packed with info for each fall show. Here's an example.

		The Cleveland Show	Slot Average
		Premieres October 7	3.12
		Best Case: Something on the schedule blows up and Cleveland gets a timeslot upgrade fairly early on. Like American Dad! (which left 7:30 last year and grew slightly), the Cleve is up a couple percent to a 1.82. Worst Case: Nothing on the schedule blows up and Cleveland airs 100% of its eps at 7:30. It has a rough time in that pursuit, losing 15% of the 7:30 numbers (see right). 1.22 average and a cancellation. Likeliest: The worst case seems a lot more likely than the best, because I don't think Fox is going to be unloading Bob's Burgers or American Dad! just to air another mediocre-rated show. Down 6% from last year's 7:30 numbers to 1.34.	Slot Orig Avg
			1.44
1.78			Occupants
			The OT
y2y	Label
-33%	marginal		5.11	3.62
			The Cleveland Show
True2	Sitch
1.68	+6%		1.43	1.58
2011-12 Slot
mostly Sunday 7:30

Out are the Phil Steele-esque long narratives about timeslot history. Instead, I'm blatantly stealing another format from a sportswriter (a storied tradition at this blog!). I'm adopting the "Best Case/Worst Case" scenarios I always enjoy from Pat Forde come March Madness time, then I'm giving my Official Prediction in the Likeliest part. I'm trying not to be too hedge-y except when I'm genuinely stumped, so I'm sure many shows will do worse than the worst case (or maybe even better than the best?!). I think it would kind of be boring to say "RUNS FOR 30 SEASONS" for every best case and "AXED AFTER ONE EPISODE" for every worst case.

There are also a lot of numbers and other stuff. I'm gonna explain each part, but a good rule of thumb is that all the white background stuff is about the show and all the blue background stuff is about what the network did in the timeslot last year.

Number in the huge font under the icon = the A18-49 original average for the show in 2011-12.
y2y = the show's percent change in A18-49 from 2010-11 to 2011-12.
Label = the show's label based on its A18-49+. See this post about the creation of the labels.
True2 = the show's average in my signature timeslot metric.
Sitch = difference between True2 and the A18-49 average.
2011-12 Slot = where the show aired last year.
Slot Average = the network's average in the show's timeslot last season. (For half-hour shows, it's just the average in that half-hour. For two-hour shows, it's just the average in the hour of that day's post.)
Slot Orig Avg = the network's average in the show's timeslot last season with just original entertainment series programming. (For half-hour shows, it's just the average in that half-hour. For two-hour shows, it's just the average in the hour of that day's post.)
Occupants = A list of shows that aired in the timeslot last year, including their A18-49 average and True2 average respectively in the slot. This just includes episodes that start at the timeslot of that day's post. That means double-length episodes that may have included an out-of-slot second half are fully included.

Then I'll have a quick table with cable shows in the hour (if applicable):

Show	Network	Premieres	Avg	y2y
Monday Night Football	ESPN	9/10	5.38	-8%
WWE Raw (full 11-12 avg)	USA	ongoing	1.70
Switched At Birth	ABC Fam	9/3	0.77

Then I'll pick one "network to watch" which I think will be most interesting in the hour this fall, and I'll say what I'm watching. At that point, if somehow there is anyone still reading, it will be over until 24 hours later!

Hope y'all enjoy these as much as I do. Please lemme know if you spot any errors or if you think my predictions are insane. Finally, a special thanks to TV-aholic for the new and improved show icons! Post #1 covering the Sunday 7:00 hour goes up at 2:30 ET.