Sunday, August 26, 2012

Fall 2012 Best Case/Worst Case, Sunday 7/6c


I don't have the typical introductory table for Sunday 7/6c, so I'll just say that Sunday 7/6c is essentially a Friday/Saturday hour that gets to pretend it's a real boy during the fall when millions and millions watch the tail end of the 4:00 NFL block. Here goes!

The Shows:

Image America's Funniest Home Videos Slot Average
Premieres October 7 1.58
Best Case: I'm not sure what would make this show have a great season either way, but the only thing I can really think of is some kind of big downturn by its NFL competition. If that happens, maybe it can pull off an even year and hit a 1.60.

Worst Case: Opposite of the above. If the NFL continues its improbable growth, maybe it drops 15% to a 1.36. It feels legitimately on the bubble but ekes out one more season.

Likeliest:This show has dropped right around 10% each of the last four years. Not sure why it'd be different this year. So I'll go right along that line and say -10% to a 1.44 average.
Slot Orig Avg
1.56
1.60Occupants
AFHV
y2y Label
-10% flop1.58 1.57
True2 Sitch
1.59 +0%
2011-12 Slot
Sunday 7:00



Image 60 Minutes Slot Average
Premieres September 30 3.41
Best Case: As long as the NFL keeps growing, so too does the newsmagazine that gets to lead out of it on several occasions in the fall. Its ratings are as volatile as ever, but on average it picks up a tick to a 2.39 average.

Worst Case:
The NFL takes a downturn, and so does 60 Minutes. It drops a league average-ish 10% to a 2.06 average.

Likeliest:
I see the NFL declining just a teeny bit this year, so I think 60 Minutes will also go down a bit. I say a 5% drop to a 2.18.
Slot Orig Avg
2.56
2.29Occupants
60 Minutes
y2y Label
+1% marginal1.89 1.77
True2 Sitch
1.79 +28%
2011-12 Slot
Sunday 7:00



I don't preview pregame shows like Football Night in America, but I'm gonna go ahead and put the Sunday Night Football predix here.

Image Sunday Night Football Slot Average
Premieres September 5 2.88
Best Case: It's football! I mean, why wouldn't it just grow into perpetuity? America loves its foooooooootball! Give it another 5% and an 8.78 average.

Worst Case:
Have you seen some of these kinda stinky preseason ratings? Also, people become more informed on the concussion issues that are starting to hang over the sport. Down 10% to a still ridiculous 7.52.

Likeliest:
I think the bad preseason ratings are about matchups to some extent, but I also believe football cannot possibly grow forever. I think it begins to inch down this year. The concussion issues are still a little too far off the radar to make much impact. All told, a 4% decline to an even 8.00.
Slot Orig Avg
1.05
8.36Occupants
Football Night
y2y Label
+1% megahit2.34 2.04
Dateline
True2 Sitch
7.34 +14%1.09 1.15
2011-12 Slot
Sunday 8:30



Image The Cleveland Show Slot Average
Premieres October 7 3.12
Best Case: Something on the schedule blows up and Cleveland gets a timeslot upgrade fairly early on. Like American Dad! (which left 7:30 last year and grew slightly), the Cleve is up a couple percent to a 1.82.

Worst Case:
Nothing on the schedule blows up and Cleveland airs 100% of its eps at 7:30. It has a rough time in that pursuit, losing 15% of the 7:30 numbers (see right). 1.22 average and a cancellation.

Likeliest:
The worst case seems a lot more likely than the best, because I don't think Fox is going to be unloading Bob's Burgers or American Dad! just to air another mediocre-rated show. Down 6% from last year's 7:30 numbers to 1.34.
Slot Orig Avg
1.44
1.78Occupants
The OT
y2y Label
-33% marginal5.11 3.62
The Cleveland Show
True2 Sitch
1.68 +6%1.43 1.58
2011-12 Slot
mostly Sunday 7:30



Network to Watch: I don't find any of these regular shows all that interesting going into 2012-13. I guess I'll choose Fox and The Cleveland Show since there seems to be some legitimate chance it might get cancelled (after the network declined to renew it for a fifth season). But letting go of a second-tier animated show would not be that big of a deal in the grand scheme.

My Picks: I'm watching NFL overruns!

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