Monday, August 27, 2012

Fall 2012 Best Case/Worst Case, Monday 8/7c


The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Monday 8:00 11.6 6 +3% 2 35.8 7 32% 8

Monday 8/7c had the second-best year-to-year trend out of 21 hours on broadcast (behind only its lead-out Monday 9/8c) thanks to huge growth on the part of CBS with How I Met Your Mother and 2 Broke Girls and NBC with The Voice in the second half. Though the competition percentage is a bit behind several other 8:00 hours later in the week, it's arguably the most competitive 8:00 hour when you throw in the Monday Night Football effect in the fall.



The Shows:

Image Dancing with the Stars Slot Average
Premieres September 24 2.63
Best Case: Armed with an all-star edition and now accustomed to dueling with talent competitions, the bleeding slows considerably. DWTS drops just 5% this fall and hits a 3.12.

Worst Case:
When a show like this starts dropping heavily, the odds are against that slowing down in any kind of meaningful way. Another -24% to a downright alarming 2.50.

Likeliest:
I'm just not sold that two music competitions can co-exist long term, but I do think DWTS will drop a lot less than The Voice this fall with the all-stars. I'll say it's down a mere 12% to a 2.90.
Slot Orig Avg
2.80
3.28Occupants
Dancing with the Stars Fall
y2y Label
-24% hit3.32 2.85
The Bachelor Spring
True2 Sitch
2.84 +16%2.54 2.43
Dancing with the Stars Spring
2011-12 Slot
Monday 8:002.98 3.12



Image How I Met Your Mother Slot Average
Premieres September 24 3.33
Best Case: Though HIMYM will almost inevitably give back a chunk of its gains from last year, it still ends up ahead of where it was a couple years ago. Down 10% to a 3.65, still big enough for a once-improbable ninth season renewal.

Worst Case:
No beneficial pairing with 2 Broke Girls, instead a dud lead-out in Partners. No huge inflation due to Charlie Sheen and Ashton Kutcher lifting all boats. It falls back 25% to a 3.06 and finishes its run at season's end.

Likeliest:
Well, I can't explain why HIMYM grew so much last season, so don't trust me on what to expect this season. But it's gotta come back to earth on some level, right? I'll say a 19% drop to a 3.30, just behind its two-years-ago numbers. The final season announcement comes midway through and it picks up late.
Slot Orig Avg
3.98
4.06Occupants
HIMYM
y2y Label
+20% big hit4.01 3.62
True2 Sitch
3.64 +12%
2011-12 Slot
Monday 8:00

Image Partners (NEW!) Slot Average
3.52
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres September 24 4.20
Best Case: 2 Broke Girls it certainly ain't, but it's a CBS multicam with some likable people. So why not? Drops a couple ticks from HIMYM but cruises to a back nine and ekes out a season two. 3.20 average.

Worst Case:
With multiple midseason comedies on the shelf, and nowhere at all to put them, the hook will be quick. Loses big from HIMYM on day one and is gone by November sweeps. 2.40.

Likeliest:
This certainly doesn't have the positive indicators going in that shows to pop in this slot (2BG, The Big Bang Theory) have, but it doesn't quite feel like a How to Be a Gentleman type of bomb either. I say it airs all 13, maybe gets three or four extra, and is gone by January to make way for a day-after-Super-Bowl launch of Friend Me. 2.70 average.
Occupants
2 Broke Girls
4.21 3.43



Image The Voice Slot Average
Premieres September 10 2.88
Best Case: Airing in the fall helps it average a 4.40 demo (-9%) and continue to crush DWTS.

Worst Case:
The gimmick that seems such a large part of this show's appeal is no longer fresh and new. There's no obvious boost from the Super Bowl. And there's one hell of a drop. It's down 29% to a 3.40 and actually goes a touch behind DWTS by season's end.

Likeliest:
Hate to do it, but I'm a seller on this show. I just don't really buy that the chairs gimmick (even though I like it) will continue being a huge draw to open every season long-term. It'll remain big, especially for NBC, but it's going down 24% from last year's inflated numbers to a 3.66.
Slot Orig Avg
2.89
4.82Occupants
The Sing-Off
y2y Label
+5% megahit1.56 1.38
Who's Still Standing?
True2 Sitch
4.64 +4%1.58 1.39
The Voice Mon
2011-12 Slot
Monday 8:004.82 4.64



Image Bones Slot Average
Premieres September 17 2.31
Best Case: Yeah, it struggled in an 8:00 slot after DST, but who doesn't?! Give it a consistent timeslot and it'll be all right. Drops just 7% to a 2.22 and cruises to yet another renewal.

Worst Case:
The competing reality competitions hold up OK, CBS is still pretty fierce, and the pairing with The Mob Doctor ain't exactly inspiring. Another -20% to just a 1.91, and Fox reluctantly axes the show.

Likeliest:
If Fox actually cancels Bones, I'd have to feel like they've done pretty well this season, because right now the drama-starved net will need a lot to go right to make that seem feasible schedule-wise. I say it's renewed barring a major disaster, and Bones ain't exactly in the major disaster business. -13% to a 2.09.
Slot Orig Avg
2.40
2.39Occupants
Terra Nova
y2y Label
-20% solid2.49 2.18
House
True2 Sitch
2.28 +5%2.57 2.49
Bones
2011-12 Slot
Thu 9:00, Mon 8:002.13 2.32



Image 90210 Slot Average
Premieres October 8 0.50
Best Case: Riding some interest in the 9:00 shows (a Gossip Girl final season and The Carrie Diaries), 90210 falls just 10% to 0.63 and is renewed with no strings attached.

Worst Case:
Gossip Girl aired in this slot last year and lost thirty-two percent. I'll go a little easier on the Zip and say just 29% to 0.50. Axed.

Likeliest:
I'm pretty sure 90210 will get a final season renewal just like almost everything does on this network, and I'm also pretty sure said final season will come after this season. I say it loses another 20%, averages a 0.56, and returns one last time.
Slot Orig Avg
0.58
0.70Occupants
Gossip Girl
y2y Label
-20% 0.59 0.52
True2 Sitch
0.64 +9%
2011-12 Slot
Tuesday 8:00



Cable:

ShowNetworkPremieres Avg y2y
Monday Night FootballESPN9/105.38-8%
WWE Raw (11-12 avg)USAongoing1.70
Switched At BirthABC Fam9/30.77



Network to Watch: On the Sunday 7/6c post, I didn't really think there were any networks to watch. This time, too many! DWTS is fading fast, CBS has its only new comedy slot, NBC has The Voice. I'm taking NBC here. As I said, I'm a bit of a seller on the show this year, and things could get supremely ugly at the peacock if The Voice starts to become a problem.

My Picks: Thought it was gonna be a light hour after the upfronts, as only HIMYM and maybe Partners interested me. But now there are two of my favorite cable dramas here too in Alphas (which will run about a month into the regular season) and Switched at Birth!

6 comments:

hubert wentland said...

I dont think HIMYM will be down so much. It might go even more serialized which will keep the viewers interested, and the fact that meeting the mother - an obvious end - is really close makes the fans that gave up on the show few years ago come back.
Last time the show dropped a lot was moving it to 8 pm and making an anchor (and in season 4 HIMYM was led by TBBT) - neither of those happens this season. So I'm optimistic, and really doubt the show will average as low as 3.3 :) or maybe im just naive.

Spot said...

so basicly you expect HIMYM to drop to the series low average, now that it grew 20%, became more serialized than ever and finally is getting close to collapse the whole story, which - i expect - might not only keep the viewers tuned in, but also drag back the ones that stopped watching few years ago? ;)
well, i don't know what to expect from monday on CBS this fall, either. but i hope Mother will stay strong and average at least 3.6 ;)

Spot said...

Eh, I just feel like it was way inflated last year and 1) won't have a big hit paired with it, 2) will have more competition in fall with the Voice, and 3) the whole lineup won't have that huge momentum from the beginning that was there last fall because of Ashton Kutcher. I imagine the "getting close" thing isn't going to matter that much till the last few episodes at the earliest. But again, I dunno why it was up last year so maybe that will continue to lift it more than I think.

Spot said...

I have to say that I disagree with your two big predictions. HIMYM is just going to stay pat or fall a little bit. I believe that most of its growth is organic due to the rising stature of its stars. Alyson Hannigan's won a couple of People's Choice Awards and is still a sex symbol. Jason Segel has gone from guest star to comedy movie star. Oh, and NPH. Don't forget him. It also has to with better availability in syndication. After years of just being on Lifetime doing nothing, it's on FX as well now. It's getting better time slots on network affiliates or getting surrounded by other strong shows. The first six seasons are available on Netflix now. It's just a lot easier to see the show now than in 2005.


The Voice's problem, however, is not the spinning chair gimmick. Yes, it went from 6.7 down to 5.4, but that was hurt by the rain-delayed Daytona 500 on FOX, so it won't happen again. It's not the blind auditions that's the problem, it's everything but that. The Battle Rounds started at 6.2 18-49 and finished at 4.5 on March 26, which I just noticed is an episode that you are missing. Then the Live Performance Rounds were a slow burn into the 3s until the finale perked back up to only 4.4. That tells me that the whole thing goes on too long. Shorten it up a bit, and there wouldn't be the drop-off. My guess is that NBC will live with the fluctuations so long as it takes up a lot of real estate on Mondays and launches Revolution well.

Spot said...

My point is not that the chairs are a "problem" (I agree that they're the only appealing part of the show), my question is whether they're enough to get people coming back year after year when the second half of the season is so clearly unappealing. Most talent shows do best at the audition phase, so it will happen to some extent, I just think it's gonna be pretty underwhelming when stacked up against the Super Bowl-boosted numbers. We shall see! (And thanks for the catch on The Voice page.)

Spot said...

Remarks:

- HIMYM: I agree with a previous poster, its growth was organic last season, at least for the most part, so while I don't see another boom, I think it will keep its last season ratings and I think the renewal decision will come down to whether or not they can convince the actors to do 2 more years.

- Spot on with Partners, I think Friend Me will take its place (though I don't believe it will get the post Super Bowl spot). Also, dont forget CBS has the ultimate utility player for comedies in Rules of Engagement, which I dont think will be needed for Thursdays this year. This means Partners could actually be a goner earlier than you predict.

- 100% agree with you for 90210 and Bones. I think both will have a final season in the 2013/2014 season.

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