Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Fall 2012 Best Case/Worst Case, Tuesday 8/7c

The Basics:

bc Rank y2y Rank TPUT Rank bc/TPUT Rank
Tuesday 8:00 10.2 11 -14% 21 33.9 12 30% 10

The Tuesday 8:00 hour took the biggest year-to-year dip of all 21 hours in 2011-12 and was the least competitive weeknight 8:00 hour. Credit big drops from mainstays The Biggest Loser and Glee. Both those guys are gone, and things should get a little more interesting in fall 2012 as two big reality franchises move their second nights down to the 8:00 hour.

The Shows:

Image Dancing with the Stars Slot Average
Premieres September 25 1.90
Best Case: Armed with an all-star edition and now accustomed to dueling with talent competitions, the bleeding slows considerably. I'll go a bit higher on the % drop because of the move to 8:00. 8% to a 2.82.

Worst Case:
When a show like this starts dropping heavily, the odds are against that slowing down in any kind of meaningful way. Another -27% to a downright alarming 2.23.

I'm just not sold that two music competitions can co-exist long term, but I do think DWTS won't have another year as bad as last year. I'll say it's down 15% to a 2.60.
Slot Orig Avg
Last Man Standing
y2y Label
-19% hit2.41 2.31
Man Up!
True2 Sitch
2.64 +16%1.85 1.48
Cougar Town
2011-12 Slot
Tuesday 9:001.48 1.66

Image NCIS Slot Average
Premieres September 25 3.22
Best Case: NCIS appears to be officially back on the downswing, but what a slow downswing it is. -3% to a 3.64.

Worst Case:
In nine seasons, NCIS has never gone worse than -8%. But it's gotta end at some point, right? It's season ten for Chrissakes. It goes -13% to a 3.26. Panic time!

Not a lot to say. You would think eventually NCIS would take a steep downturn, but I don't really have a good gauge on when or why it's gonna happen. I'll say it's down a bit more than last year's -6% simply because the reality shows might be a little tougher for this show to deal with. -8% to a 3.45.
Slot Orig Avg
y2y Label
-6% big hit3.75 3.54
True2 Sitch
3.54 +6%
2011-12 Slot
Tuesday 8:00

Image The Voice Slot Average
Premieres September 11 2.01
Best Case: Airing in the fall plus some blind auditions on Tuesday helps it average a 3.90 demo (+8%) and continue to crush DWTS.

Worst Case:
The gimmick that seems such a large part of this show's appeal is no longer fresh and new. There's no obvious boost from the Super Bowl. It's down 17% to a 3.00.

I'm a seller on this show as I said yesterday, though I think the comparisons will be a lot more favorable on Tuesday since it'll be on the night from the beginning of the season and include some blind auditions ratings. Plus, the Tuesday editions already held up quite well last year relative to Monday. I'm going with an 11% drop to a 3.20.
Slot Orig Avg
The Biggest Loser Fall
y2y Label
big hit2.16 1.92
The Biggest Loser Spring
True2 Sitch
3.63 -0%2.18 2.19
2011-12 Slot
Tuesday 9:00

Image Raising Hope Slot Average
Premieres October 2 2.67
Best Case: Its audience is its audience, as they say, and it's not like Hope is unused to facing these two reality programs. A permanent 8:00 home is not much of a problem. It drops 5% to a 2.05.

Worst Case:
The opening hour of the four-comedy block goes just as badly as you might expect when you look at Hope's ratings last year. This show drops 25% to a 1.62 and gets picked up by some cable network ala Cougar Town.

This is probably stupid, but for some reason I think this might work better than a lot of people think. I believe its showing at 8/7c last year was a bit underrated (DST hit starting in its second week), and it won't have to deal with any other comedies. I'll say a 2.00 average, just a 7% drop.
Slot Orig Avg
y2y Label
-13% marginal3.05 2.94
Raising Hope
True2 Sitch
1.82 +19%1.72 1.88
2011-12 Slot
Tue 9:30, Tue 8:00

Image Ben and Kate (NEW!) Slot Average
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres September 253.11
Best Case: Ben and Kate : Raising Hope :: Suburgatory : The Middle. Got it? 2.00 average, back nine, makes a season two.

Worst Case:
Raising Hope is a problem in the lead-off role, but Ben and Kate is an even bigger problem. It averages a Teenage Daughter-esque 1.40 and is gone by November in favor of New Girl reruns. Fox prepares a January The Goodwin Games launch.

I see this show ratings-wise being more of a Better with You than a Suburgatory. It may just flop, but I'm saying it does just well enough to not be a pull-me-now, and so Fox will give it the back nine because they badly want this Tuesday block to work. I see it being a close call at season's end and narrowly getting axed, since Fox will have at least three other far clearer comedy renewals. 1.80 average.
3.05 2.94
I Hate My Teenage Daughter
1.40 1.49

Image Hart of Dixie Slot Average
Premieres October 2 0.56
Best Case: On a network where airing at 8:00 often seems better than airing at 9:00, last year's little show that could sees a sophomore bump. It's up 9% to a 0.70.

Worst Case:
This is the CW, man. "Up" is not part of their vocabulary. It's still not as far off as most CDub offerings, dropping 11% to a 0.57 and still scoring a third season.

I was strongly in favor of the CW renewing this show, and I think there's a chance it could pay off big since, again, 8:00 > 9:00. Then again, every show on the network was down double digits last year. That's hard math to totally defy. I'm gonna say it's dead even at 0.64.
Slot Orig Avg
y2y Label
0.70 0.64
True2 Sitch
0.56 +14%
2011-12 Slot
Monday 9:00

Network to Watch: Fox. The stuff I said yesterday about the uncertainty around ABC and NBC's reality shows still applies, but in Fox there is real potential for serious disaster. As you can see above, I don't personally think that's gonna happen, but it'll be really interesting to see what they do if it does. Do they move Glee back to Tuesday or something??? If there's one thing at the top of the Fox schedulers' wishlist, my guess is it's for this hour to remain somewhat viable.

My Picks: Hart of Dixie for sure. I've never really been able to get into Raising Hope but I may give it another shot alongside Ben and Kate.

1 comment:

Spot said...

- Nothing to say on NCSI
- I agree with you on Hart of Dixie, and I could actually see a slighly higher gain, but maybe that's just me being optimistc, I don't know.
- I disagree with you on Raising Hope. I think it is a weak point on the Tuesday Fox lineup and that, as the lead in, it will bring it down significantly, especially Ben and Kate. It will still get a 4th season for syndication prospects, but I think its average going way more down than what you predict.
- Ben and Kate... Agree with you. It will be a bubble untitl the end and Fox will try to make it work, but in the end, they will save Raising Hope for syndication, they will save New Girl and they will want a new comedy. I don't see them getting another comedy hour. So this means it's only one between Ben and Kate, The Goodwin Games and The Mindy Project. I say Mindy gets it.

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