Friday, May 10, 2013

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 5/9/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • It was another milestone night for sophomore drama Scandal, which blew away its previous series high and outrated lead-in Grey's Anatomy for the second time in three weeks. (Though the gap was closed to just a single tenth in finals, as Grey's was adjusted up to a very good number of its own.) This result adds another layer of interest to what should be an incredibly interesting next Thursday (with The Office's series finale and finales for The Big Bang Theory and American Idol also thrown in).
  • But ABC did have a little bad news as Wipeout returned rather weakly at 8/7c, only improving the slot by two ticks vs. last week's Wife Swap and down 35% vs. last year's premiere (which was in the middle of the summer). It's more important where it ends up in two weeks against summer competition, but this isn't a good start.
  • Also posting a pretty solid penultimate result was another one-hour The Office, which had its best "self-starting" number of the season. (It only did better in a post-Voice ep in November.) And the season's last Community (but, as we'd learn later, not the series' last) was a little above average too. Hannibal remained stalled at what looks like an unacceptable number even with a big lead-in boost. But, again, it was a lot better than last year's Awake.
  • Fox's Glee finale was up a bit (though nearly a third behind last year's post-Idol finale), but CBS' Person of Interest finale was largely lost in the shuffle, and the penultimate Elementary continued its disappointing late-season deterioration. That show will throw a two-hour finale at Idol, The Office and Grey's/Scandal next week. Good luck.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue2
Viewers A18-49 Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Wipeout 4.35 1.3 n/an/a 1/1 -35% +13% +13% 1.65
Grey's Anatomy 8.97 3.1 +3%+18% 7/23 -11% +3% -10% 3.62
Scandal 8.87 3.2 +23%+3% 1/21 +68% +23% +64% 3.06
The Big Bang Theory 16.30 4.9 +0%n/a 17/23 +11% +0% +11% 5.97
Two and a Half Men 12.83 3.5 +9%+0% 18/23 -10% +9% +30% 3.38
Person of Interest 13.16 2.4 +0%+9% 20/22 -8% -2% -9% 2.48
Elementary 9.29 1.9 -5%+0% 21/21 n/a -5% -19% 1.92
Community 3.08 1.3 +8%n/a 3/13 -7% +8% -7% 1.72
The Office (R) 2.35 1.1
-35% -27% 1.43
The Office 4.56 2.3 +28%-8% 2/22 +0% +31% +15% 2.80
Hannibal 2.62 1.1 +0%+44% 4/6 n/a +5% +22% 1.11
American Idol Thu 11.57 2.9 +12%n/a 12/17 -28% +12% -28% 3.56
Glee 5.92 2.0 +5%+12% 15/22 -31% +8% +3% 2.14
The Vampire Diaries 2.28 1.0 +0%n/a 18/22 -17% +0% -13% 1.30
Beauty and the Beast 1.29 0.5 +0%+0% 15/21 n/a +11% -9% 0.51

KEY (click to expand)
Viewers - The total number of viewers (age 2+, in millions) that watched the program.
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Last - A18-49 percent difference from previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 percent difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes that have aired so far this season.
y2y - The show's A18-49 rating compared to its rating a year ago.
TLa - The show's A18-49 rating compared to the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - The show's A18-49 rating compared to the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True2 - The second edition of True Strength, a metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

12 comments:

Spot said...

I really don't understand why certain quarters have been so against bumping Person of Interest to 10. Is there another show this year whose success (or growth, in this case) has been so grossly overstated? Being flat year-to-year is admirable, but with a comedy block lead-in that was put together basically for the sole purpose of boosting it? Not so much. I actually watch the show on and off, but even I can see that it's merely an OK (at best) option for a 9pm slot. If CBS has the comedy development we think they have, there is no reason not to expand into the 9pm hour.

Spot said...

Yes. I wish I had remembered to mention this in the expansion discussion. Last year, even though the returning comedies were stronger, the downside to the expansion was they had to mess with a show that appeared to have breakout potential in the slot. PoI certainly has no such heat this year, so that part shouldn't be much of a factor.

Spot said...

*Looks at Scandal's ratings*
*rubs eyes*
*Looks at Scandal's ratings again*

Spot said...

You know, I love Person of Interest. It is my favorite show on television, and last night's episode was one of the most thrilling. But mid-2s for a season finale on Thursday night is just unacceptable. Doing it two years in a row is a death knell. If the preliminary number holds, it will have grown all of 1% year-over-year with a

What's especially frustrating is that it has followed, to a tee, the same ratings trajectory as last year. High 2s in the fall, low 3s in the winter. Then it dribbles down a bit until March Madness, where a big break doesn't hurt the next episode or two too much. Then it goes on ANOTHER three week break, comes back against the NFL Draft and BOOM! Never recovers. Mid-2s right in the thick of May sweeps.

*sigh*

Bold prediction: PoI moves to Thursdays at 10, where it will fall 15% to 2.47. Still decent. Next season, it falls another 20% to 1.97. CBS, with no promise of syndication cash in the future, will cancel it after 89 episodes.

Spot said...

Spot, what's the league average right now? Is it declining a lot? Will The Following be qualified as a hit?

Spot said...

Yeah, and it held after finals, too. What's the over/under on the finale? 3.5?

Spot said...

It was 2.112 as of Sunday, down from 2.120 the previous Sunday, and needs to drop only three more hundredths to 2.109. However, with all the big finales and fewer Friday/Saturday programs, it will be tough to get the rest of the way there... it actually grew a bit in the last 2.5 weeks last year.

Spot said...

Grey's Anatomy's best True2 since 9x02!

Spot said...

Okay. And Revolution has no shot, right?

Spot said...

I expect Scandal to set another series high with a stronger Grey's Anatomy lead-in. If I was doing a Question, I'd probably set the line at 3.45 because this penultimate episode grew more than half a point for no discernible reason (to me).

I think a better Question for Thursday would actually be one that could go across all the broadcast networks because all of them are bringing their A-game at some point on the night: The Office vs. Grey's Anatomy/Scandal vs. The Big Bang Theory vs. American Idol. (It almost reminds me of Winter 2006 when it was Winter Olympics [figure skating, almost always the highest-rated competition night] vs. Dancing with the Stars vs. Survivor/CSI vs. Idol.) But the scattered start times don't make it possible to do an apples to apples comparison to programs. Perhaps an Over/Under of all four networks' averages aggregated?

Spot said...

Man, I have really been wrestling with this one. I always favored keeping it simple with one, MAYBE two Questions in a day, but there are like 4-5 really compelling shows on Thursday. Might have to make an exception and just do one post with 4-5 different lines this one time...

Spot said...

The competitor in me would love the chance to make my move for first place in The Question. Just saying....

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