Thursday, May 16, 2013

The Question, Thursday 5/16/13: How Many Huge Finales Can Broadcast Stuff Into One Night?


Welcome to Finale Night in America! Somehow the season finales for TV's #1 show, TV's long-time former #1 show, TV's hottest show, the CW's biggest hit and the series finale of NBC's most successful scripted show of the last decade all managed to converge on one fateful evening. (Oh yeah, and Grey's Anatomy, Elementary and Beauty and the Beast too. Plus, how will Hannibal do with an Office series finale lead-in? Gahhh!!!) Maybe this is just the kind of night that brings scores of people back to broadcast TV, or maybe this glut means that some shows are bound to get lost in the shuffle. How many huge finales can broadcast stuff into one night? That's The Question for Thursday, May 16, 2013.


I really didn't want to have four or five separate games and give a huge disadvantage to people who may be AFK today. (It would also be a lot of extra work for me!!!) So here's how this goes: I'm posting five separate lines, one for each network, and you will say "Over" if you think at least three of them go over or "Under" if you think at least three of them go "Under." So it's just one game! (You can list each individually if you want, though.)



Scandal is the kind of show that should get a big finale bounce, but it already had a perhaps overly huge penultimate bounce, and it has to deal with the final minutes of Idol and Office. It's gonna be hard to go way higher than last week.

Scandal Over/Under: 3.45.



The Big Bang Theory isn't a big finale spiker; in fact, it's been down for the finale in three of its five seasons, including last year. I still think it's more likely to be up than down, but the Office retrospective and the Idol finale could provide more competition than usual.

The Big Bang Theory Over/Under: 4.95.



The penultimate week of The Office took an encouraging upswing to a near-season best 2.3, setting it up for another big jump for the series finale. I'd normally expect a 3.0ish, but... all that competition.

The Office Over/Under: 2.75.



Many recent Idol points have been down well over 30% year-to-year. This line would be down even more, over 40% from last year's 6.4. But... usually the other networks try to dodge the Idol finale. Given the competition, it doesn't seem too unreasonable to expect far fewer of the Idol finale droves to show up.

American Idol Over/Under: 3.75.



While TVD may have added finale appeal, it didn't grow at all last year on finale night, and last year it wasn't facing an Idol finale. Might be even with each of the last four weeks, might be up a tick.

The Vampire Diaries Over/Under: 1.05.



Again, reply with "Over" if you think at least three of these go over, or "Under" if you think at least three go under.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

19 comments:

Spot said...

Under.


Specifically, they're all under except for Scandal.

Spot said...

Under. I think this is playing it a bit safer, any of them could go over but I'm not sure as many as three can all in one night and I don't feel confident enough to punt on any individual show.

Spot said...

Under:


Scandal (Over) - 3.6
The Big Bang Theory (Under) - 4.9
The Office (Over) - 3.0
American Idol (Under) - 3.5
The Vampire Diaries (Under) - 1.0

Spot said...

I'm saying Over. Haven't had the best track record lately but I think Scandal (3.5), Big Bang Theory (5.0) and Vampire Diaries (1.1) will be over, if not The Office too even just slightly with a 2.8.

Spot said...

I'll go for Over.

At a guess it would be TBBT (5.0), The Office (2.9) and TVD (1.1) being over. With American Idol (3.4) under, and Scandal (3.4) under. This is my first week, as I only just found the site. But I'm really liking your layout and features, specifically the upfront analysis, which was by far the best of any site I'm aware of.

Spot said...

It seems like the more safe route to say UNDER.


Scandal - Under (3.3)
The Big Bang Theory - Over (5.0)
The Office - Under (2.6)
American Idol - Under (3.4)
The Vampire Diaries - Over (1.2)

Spot said...

Over.
Scandal: 3.5 (Over)
Big Bang: 4.8 (Under)
The Office: 2.8 (Over)
Idol: 3.6 (Under)
Vampire Diaries: 1.1 (Over)

Spot said...

Scandal- 3.4
TBBT- 4.9
Office- 2.8
Idol- 3.6
TVD- 1.1


So... UNDER, though the lines all appear to be close to 50-50.

Spot said...

Under:


Scandal (Under) - 3.3
The Big Bang Theory (Under) - 4.7
The Office (Over) - 3.2
American Idol (Under) - 3.5
The Vampire Diaries (Under) - 1.0

Spot said...

Under. "It is certain."

Spot said...

My first guess on here!


I'm leaning under for Scandal (3.3) and TBBT (4.8), over for Office (2.9), TVD is a pure toss-up, and Idol could be anywhere.

So I'll go UNDER. Frankly, 90% of that is "do not underestimate the decline in broadcast ratings," if I'm honest.

Spot said...

tough one but I say under, scandal will probably be in the low 3's big bang theory 4.8-4.9, and no clue for american idol, but I'm definily leaning lower, wouldn't be all that surprised if scandal beat it in 18-49

Spot said...

Scandal: 3.5 (OVER)
Big Bang: 4.9 (UNDER)
Office: 2.5 (UNDER)
Idol: 3.5 (UNDER)
Vampires: 1.0 (UNDER)


So that'll be under, then.

Spot said...

Under. The DNGS indicates overcrowding is a major factor tonight, w/out the necessary audience boost.

Spot said...

My optimism knows few bounds. Over.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Scandal (Under, but barely - 3.3)
The Big Bang Theory (Over, but again, barely - I'll say 5.0)
The Office (Over - I say 2.9)
American Idol (Under - 3.5)
The Vampire Diaries (Over - 1.0)


So...Over, overall.

Spot said...

Just saw it. Probably already past the time, but anyway, my guess would be under.

Spot said...

Thank you, and welcome!

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