Friday, April 18, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 4/17/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • A curiously packed mid-April night of season finales was of course highlighted by Scandal (3.4), which edged last year's finale (3.2) and tied this spring's premiere on February 27 as the second-highest rated episode in series history. An upward adjustment in total viewers (to 10.57 million) made it a series high in total viewership, barely edging the fall premiere (10.52 million).
  • The other three finales were all for bubble shows, and probably the closest thing to good news was Parenthood (1.3) going a bit above average even in a head-to-head with Scandal. Community (1.0) rose a tenth week-to-week, but it also had less competition than usual due to a repeat The Big Bang Theory (2.2). And the loser was CBS' The Crazy Ones (1.6 at 9:00 and a pitiful 1.3 at 9:30), which went well below all previous results when sandwiched by repeat hours at 8 and 10 (though the 8:30 The Big Bang Theory (2.6) provided basically the same lead-in volume as it usually has).
  • Fox reality was on the rebound as Hell's Kitchen (1.7) got pretty much back on track with no Shark Tank in the hour and American Idol (1.9) actually tied the Wednesday edition. But following decent holds in weeks two and three, Surviving Jack (1.0) took a week four hit.
  • And the CW's nightmare week continued with The Vampire Diaries (0.7) plunging to a new low and Reign (0.4), like The 100 the night before, failing to rally even with an original lead-in reinstalled.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Grey's Anatomy (R) 0.9 32% -47% -38% 1.2
Grey's Anatomy 2.6 39% +0%+0.0-0.8 10/19 n/a +2% +148% 3.1
Scandal 3.4 41% +13%+0.4+0.0 2/18 +6% +13% +300% 3.8
ABC:-5%+106%
The Big Bang Theory (R) 2.2 29% -53% -29% 2.8
The Big Bang Theory (R) 2.7 31% +8% +13% 3.2
The Crazy Ones 1.6 33% -6%-0.1+0.3 21/21 n/a -33% -52% 1.6
The Crazy Ones 1.3 32% -19%-0.3-1.1 22/22 n/a -24% -43% 1.5
NCIS (R) 1.0 21% -39% -38% 1.3
CBS:-33%-31%
Community 1.0 44% +11%+0.1n/a 7/12 -23% +11% -23% 1.3
Parks and Recreation 0.9 48% -10%-0.1+0.1 17/17 -47% -10% -10% 1.3
Hollywood Game Night 0.9 36% -18%-0.2-0.2 11/11 n/a +6% -47% 1.2
Parenthood 1.3 41% +18%+0.2+0.0 4/22 n/a +18% -13% 1.7
NBC:+9%-28%
Hell's Kitchen 1.7 44% +21%+0.3n/a 5/6 -19% +21% -43% 2.2
American Idol Thu 1.9 30% +6%+0.1+0.3 11/14 -37% +6% -17% 2.3
Surviving Jack 1.0 30% -17%-0.2+0.1 4/4 n/a -17% -50% 1.0
Fox:+9%-39%
The Vampire Diaries 0.7 54% -13%-0.1n/a 18/18 -30% +133% -30% 0.9
Reign 0.4 37% +0%+0.0+0.4 17/18 n/a +0% -33% 0.5
CW:+57%-31%
Big5:-7%-15%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

19 comments:

Spot said...

Something strange is happening with CW. It's spring, so ratings downtrend is to be expected, but this is too much.
Only The Tomorrow People, dead show walking, is holding OK. The 100 is seemingly low-but-stable, but no, it didn't raise after getting back original episodes for lead-in (though problem is partially in Arrow hitting series low this week). Reign is collapsing. Until 3/27 it never hit bellow 0.7 W18-34 after original TVD, and today's preliminary is only 0.4 W18-34. TVD raised from previous episode, but for one tenth only, and that previous episode was at series-low 1.1 W18-34. All other their shows are tenth (some even two) bellow from what could be called OK, or Okish.

Last few episodes of currently airing CW shows:

The Vampire Diaries; W18-34: 1.6 -> 1.1 -> 1.2
The Originals; W18-34: 1.0 -> 0.9 -> 0.7
Supernatural; A18-49: 0.93 -> 0.85 -> 1.01 -> 0.73
Arrow; A18-49: 0.90 -> 0.79 -> 0.71
Reign; W18-34: 0.9 -> 0.6 -> 0.5 -> 0.4
The 100; A18-49: 0.62 -> 0.53 -> 0.53
Whose Line; A18-49: 0.54 -> 0.44 -> 0.38
The Tomorrow People; A18-49: 0.41 -> 0.31 -> 0.46 -> 0.42
Hart of Dixie W18-34: 0.33 -> 0.24 -> 0.27
Star-Crossed W18-34: 0.3 -> 0.3 -> 0.2

Spot said...

What is going on with the CW?? Is its coverage down for some reason? Its spring drops have been too intense to be normal. No show has escaped the trend, it's very odd

Spot said...

I agree. There is something very off about the CW.

Spot said...

How many downward adjustments in finals have there been this week?

Spot said...

If you ask about W18-34, I don't know. SonOfTheBronx stopped posting W18-34 and A18-34 ratings. Either his source drained, either he has no time for it.

There were some downward adjustments in A18-49, I don't care to compile list now. I can if you insist :)

Anyway, it seems being connected to WGN lately often airing Cubs (or whatever baseball) games in primetime for Chicago market, while airing CW shows in late night timeslot.

Spot said...

Can Chicago really make that big of a difference?


By the way, where do you get the W18-34s and A18-34s then now? Preliminaires I mean

Spot said...

Chicago is the third largest media market, I believe. So a preemption there has more of an impact than, say, Salt Lake City.

Spot said...

Futon Critic has preliminaries for W18-34, but only for The CW shows.

Yes, some of W18-34 ratings I posted above are preliminary. In my spreadsheet I have it in different color. But here in comments there's no colors. Or I don't know to use it, same end result.

For Chicago, I meant only about adjustments in finals, that's what James asked about. For example, The 100 was 0.6 preliminary in A18-49, and 0.53 in finals. Surely big market like Chicago can cause 0.02 drop from 0.55 to 0.53.


I'm not saying it's causing, for example, Supernatural going from previous original (1.01 three weeks ago) to 0.73 this week. That would be absurd, of course.

Spot said...

I believe there have been preemptions sprouting out in a lot of markets. I do know Wednesday had Chicago preempted.

Spot said...

This summer BET started airing repeats of first 2 seasons of Scandal. First they aired marathons of all episodes (on Saturdays), then 2 episodes per week (Wednesday 9-11 PM). BET also acquired rights to air this 3rd season during it, model is "no sooner than eight days after original first-run episodes are broadcast on ABC". They air 2 episodes Friday 10-11:59 PM, I suppose those are episodes that aired 8 /15 days ago at ABC.

I wonder if this deal had helped Scandal's ABC first-run ratings, similar to what Netflix/Hulu binge viewing did for some cable shows live ratings, and syndicated repeats on TBS for The Big Bang Theory.

Spot said...

Still think it's likely that CBS renews one more comedy, but I think this result has finally killed off any chance of it being The Crazy Ones.

Spot said...

Like Chris L says, Chicago is #3 and has more impact than other markets. I've seen plenty of one-tenth dings for CW shows in finals on nights where they aired Bulls/Cubs/other sports teams.

That wouldn't explain the low prelims, though. VD's bad night is something else entirely.

Spot said...

It's worth pointing out that the local affiliate carrying baseball games probably means that The CW shows do disproportionately well in Chicago.

Spot said...

NBC Thursday Night at the Movies

Spot said...

Guys, there's a mistake there, is missing the data of 10/30, which was a 9.50 viewers with a 1.7 A18-49.

Spot said...

Holy moly spot. What changed in your true? Last week's Big Bang Theory had a 4.7 in raw and a 5.8 in true. http://www.spottedratings.com/2014/04/spotted-ratings-thursday-41014.html
Here it gets the same 4.7 and a massive 7.6 true rating.
What changed in metric? What has giving TBBT such a boost?

Spot said...

Where are you seeing the 7.6 exactly??

Spot said...

Sorry, I linked the wrong link.

Spot said...

I don't recall all the details, but one thing I remember clearly is that the original formula gave you a bonus for how much you grow from your lead-in (as opposed to just measuring the size of the lead-in as it does now). Surely that was a large part of BBT's number there, though that seems pretty high even accounting for that.

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