Thursday, April 10, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 4/9/14

  • Another big episode on Law and Order: SVU (2.0) had yet another spike in it, breaking a two for the sixth time this season. (It did this just three times last year.) That helped the show pull close to a sagging Criminal Minds (2.3) in the 9/8c crime drama duel. A below-average CSI (1.7) kept CBS narrowly ahead of NBC's Chicago PD (1.6) at 10/9c.
  • Week four of The 100 (0.5) brought a third straight drop, though this one was to be expected given Arrow (0.4) went into repeats. All we can say is that the show avoided the 0.4 disaster scenario in this spot, and it feels like whether it can get back to 0.6+ when Arrow returns next week will be key.
  • ABC was all repeats except for Mixology (1.2), which adjusted up to tie its previous episode with no original lead-in.


A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Middle (R) 1.4 36% -30% -30% 1.5
Suburgatory (R) 1.2 40% -29% -33% 1.4
Modern Family (R) 1.6 40% -52% -58% 1.8
Mixology 1.2 42% -25%-0.4-1.7 6/7 n/a -25% -52% 1.3
Nashville (R) 0.6 31% -60% -66% 0.8
Survivor 2.4 32% +4%+0.1n/a 3/7 -8% +7% -8% 2.6
Criminal Minds 2.3 30% -12%-0.3+0.1 16/21 -23% -10% -23% 2.4
CSI 1.7 24% -6%-0.1-0.3 17/20 -29% -6% -29% 1.8
Law and Order: SVU (R) 0.9 27% -31% -22% 1.0
Law and Order: SVU 2.1 36% +24%+0.4-0.4 2/19 n/a +24% +121% 2.5
Chicago PD 1.6 31% +0%+0.0+0.4 5/11 n/a +0% +68% 1.7
American Idol Wed 2.0 29% -5%-0.1n/a 14/14 -38% -4% -38% 2.2
Arrow (R) 0.4 43% -50% -11% 0.5
The 100 0.5 38% -17%-0.1-0.4 4/4 n/a -17% +25% 0.6

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.


Spot said...

Given The 100 skew of slightly over 40% young, I'm surprised 1.75 mill. total viewers didn't translate into 0.6 A18-49 preliminary rating.
But it should be very near 0.55 in finals, or even above it, so I expect The CW to renew The 100 next week. I mean, because next Wednesday show's ratings will probably go up for the first time. Yes, as a consequence of double stronger lead-in, but that will be the best moment from PR standpoint.

Spot said...

Half-hours were 0.6/0.5, so it is definitely somewhere between 0.50 and 0.55. Yes, may adjust up.

Spot said...

Poll for Shark Tank's special Thursday episode?

Spot said...

I imagine there isn't one because this isn't so much a tryout as it is filling the scheduling gap caused by Once Upon a Time in Wonderland ending its run. If Shark Tank does explode in the ratings tonight, then maybe it becomes interesting as it would be competing against a Grey's Anatomy / Scandal / New drama scheduling option. Even then, it feels unlikely to happen because moving Shark Tank means ABC Fridays has no anchor.

The marginally more interesting Question to me would be the gap between Shark Tank and Hell's Kitchen. By almost all measures, they are essentially the same show: while Tank outrates Hell's in both raw numbers and True, the gap is less than 0.1 point in both. And their timeslots are roughly equal according the Stich. The main difference is Hell's skews much younger, but that may mainly be due to airing on Thursday as opposed to Friday and by being on a younger-skewing network in general. Head to head, though, I think I'd give the edge to Shark Tank. The 8 PM hour isn't kind to the show historically, but it's remained hot by keeping a 2.x demo even after DST kicked in and is still running ahead on a year-to-year basis.

Unofficial Spread: Shark Tank BEATS Hell's Kitchen by 0.05 points.

Spot said...

I like the idea of splitting Shonda's dramas to 2 separate nights, so it could be Shark Tank + Shonda + new drama. Didn't The CW beat ABC a few times this season Thursday at 8? That can't be what the network wants to happen next season.
Whether the added value would make up for the lost value to Friday, I dunno.

Spot said...

I may have done one if it had a huge lead-in or something, but in this spot I think it'd be a win if it just hits its normal Friday numbers. And Chris seems to be on about the same wavelength.

Spot said...

I like the general idea of ABC not throwing yet another new show to Thursdays at 8:00 next season. Grey's Anatomy just feels more likely to happen than Shark Tank because it's a simpler way to address Thursdays: it's smart counterprogramming against CBS' sitcoms and the unknowns of NBC and Fox, it allows Scandal to inherit the marquee 9:00 hour, and ABC can try using Scandal's heat to launch a new show.

Perhaps if The Neighbors and Back in the Game showed enough of a pulse, ABC could have considered reconstituting a TGIF block (Last Man Standing, Back in the Game, Suburgatory, The Neighbors in that order) and moving Shark Tank for 2014-2015. If I'm in charge, ABC would take the wins on Fridays and focus on other nights - Tuesday, Wednesday, and Sunday. But since it's Paul Lee, who knows?

Spot said...

Fox would be foolish to cancel Surviving Jack. Its the best comedy on Fox and the best new comedy of 2014. SJ would be a hit on CBS.

Spot said...

There's no way Grey's moves to 8pm. Another night, like Tuesday, maybe.

Spot said...

I tend to concur w/ Mr. Herbaugh. If only because moving anything that's a hit to 8pm is as good as dooming it to death. Nothing can ever overcome The Mork & Mindy Curse until the greater TV gods decide that ABC has suffered enough for playing screwball w/ their last top five Thursday 8pm show.

Spot said...

It didn't adjust up though. Also I think CW will be curious to see if the rating of Tomorrow People of next week, after the (relatively) high rating of the last episode.

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