Friday, April 11, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 4/10/14


WHAT MATTERS:

  • It was another very modest weeknight tryout for Shark Tank (1.7), down 15% from its usual amazing-for-Friday 2.0 in a Thursday 8/7c test. I tend to think these things are always set up for disappointment to a certain extent because shows take a hit when airing out of pattern, and Thursday at 8 after DST isn't even that much higher-viewed than its usual Friday 9/8c slot. But this will certainly not serve as evidence that would encourage ABC to move it off of Friday.
  • If there was a silver lining for Shark Tank, it was that it at least brought competing reality Hell's Kitchen (1.4) down with it. Ouch.
  • The other ugly result was Reign (0.4), which dropped to a new series low in its second episode without an original The Vampire Diaries lead-in. In True terms, this is basically the equivalent of getting a 0.5 after an original. Reign has done that in the past, but not for a little while.
  • To round out a rough night, the CBS and NBC lineups mostly inched downward, which meant lots of ties for lows in peacock land: Community (0.9), Parks and Recreation (1.0) and Parenthood (1.1). Only 10/9c dramas Scandal (3.0) and Elementary (1.6) were on the week-to-week upswing preliminarily, though American Idol joined after finals.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Shark Tank 1.7 32% -15%-0.3n/a 20/23 n/a +89% +21% 2.2
Grey's Anatomy 2.6 40% -4%-0.1+0.8 10/18 n/a -2% +108% 3.1
Scandal 3.0 41% +3%+0.1-0.1 7/17 n/a +3% +216% 3.1
ABC:+13%+103%
The Big Bang Theory 4.7 37% -4%-0.2n/a 20/20 n/a -4% +57% 5.8
The Millers 2.5 32% -11%-0.3-0.2 16/19 n/a -11% +25% 2.4
Two and a Half Men 2.4 32% -4%-0.1-0.3 5/19 n/a -4% +33% 2.5
The Crazy Ones 1.7 31% +0%+0.0-0.1 16/20 n/a +0% +0% 1.8
Elementary 1.6 26% +7%+0.1+0.0 16/20 n/a +3% +14% 1.8
CBS:-3%+28%
Community 0.9 45% +0%+0.0n/a 10/11 -25% +0% -25% 1.2
Parks and Recreation 1.0 50% -9%-0.1+0.0 15/16 -33% -9% -33% 1.4
Hollywood Game Night (R) 0.9 44% -18% -40% 1.2
Parenthood 1.1 38% -8%-0.1-0.2 20/21 n/a -12% -35% 1.4
NBC:-12%-35%
Hell's Kitchen 1.4 43% -22%-0.4n/a 5/5 -26% -20% -57% 1.8
American Idol Thu 1.8 30% +6%+0.1-0.4 12/13 -44% +6% -25% 2.3
Surviving Jack 1.2 35% +0%+0.0+0.1 2/3 n/a +0% -48% 1.4
Fox:-9%-48%
The Vampire Diaries (R) 0.3 45% +20% +0% 0.4
Reign 0.4 41% -33%-0.2-0.5 17/17 n/a +33% +33% 0.5
CW:+27%+17%
Big5:-1%-1%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

23 comments:

Spot said...

8 o'clock fail.
Shonda owns 10 o'clock. For now. I'm for having Scandal at 9 and Grey's on another night.

Spot said...

Nail in the coffin for Community. One sub 1 blip could still be renewed, but not two. Welcome to the Family was pulled after it had a .9 (I only include the comparison because they are both Sony owned that were part of the Blacklist deal).

Shark Tank got a bad deal. Fox competition was over doubled vs the normal slot. Even though NBC was actually weaker, CBS was up something like 147% compared to normal. Even the CW had a stronger repeat of Vampire Diaries than Heart of Dixie original. I'm curious on the Shark Tank half hours. Did it gain any of those 2 whole 18-49 points leaving between Big Bang and Millers?

Spot said...

Yep, one of those nights after all. And, like Patrick, I see little light left in the tunnel for Community at this point. Although I will be saddened (which is something I wouldn'tve believed possible after last year) to see it go.

On that note, though, once the season ends, I have to find something else to fill the gap on my Thursday sked.

Spot said...

Counting cable, Community was the #13 comedy of the night. It's got to go, if the repeated sub-1 didn't make that clear...

Spot said...

I'm not calling Community dead until it's dead. Sony is aggressive in getting shows renewed and it has a reasonably sized syndication deal ($850k/ep between cable and VOD). NBC also just renewed Parks, which barely does better in a far easier timeslot.

Yes, this is probably denial.

Spot said...

The only show that really has a case to be renewed over it is the older-skewing, faster-falling Growing Up Fisher.

Personally, I'm thinking it might fit a Nikita-esque miniature final season, thrown underneath football before handing the slot to something new in time for November sweeps.

Spot said...

I don't think it's worth Sony's while to only make six episodes.
There isn't much of a ratings case to be made for renewal but there might be an economic case. It might even be a viable summer option if it's offered cheap enough to NBC.

Spot said...

Shark Tank's drop is more related to Kitchen Nightmares, similar to what happened yestarday with ST and Hell's Kitchen (which was the one who dropped).


But was there any significative drop on HUT levels yesterday? Almost every non-10 PM show was down. We always talk about DST but it started more than a month ago

Spot said...

On Thursday Shark Tank taking Hell's Kitchen few tenths down, and on Friday Kitchen Nightmares doing the same to Shark Tank.
Not that it matters for renewals (those are very cheap shows, even for reality), but it might influence how ABC and Fox will schedule things.

If I was ABC I'd schedule Thursday as Grey's / new Shonda drama / Scandal. But they'll surely consult Shonda about it first - if she wants GA to stay at 9 PM, it probably would stay there.
One thing ABC surely won't do is moving Grey's from Thursday (or Scandal for that matter). That would potentially create a new hole in schedule, which already looks like the lunar landscape. They won't mess with just about only their night working well, they're not idiots.

Spot said...

Yes, Thursdays at 8 work out great, just as well as they have for years now.

Spot said...

I would contest the statement that ABC are not idiots, but I agree with the rest of it ;)

Spot said...

I could see family friendly Last Man Standing and The Neighbors getting nicked by Rio 2 opening.
.
Two nights a week for Shark Tank would hurt it badly. Does anyone remember the ill fated Apprentice: Martha Stewart? Exactly. Even when it was at the top of its game, The Apprentice could not handle two nights a week

Spot said...

Currently there is only 5 strong broadcast dramas: Scandal, NCIS, The Blacklist, Grey's Anatomy, and Criminal Minds.
Sleepy Hollow and Resurrection have fallen too much later in their seasons to be called so.

Having 2 of top 5 dramas on Thursday, ABC would have strong night even with dead air at 8PM.

Spot said...

I'm wondering why the exclusion of NCIS: LA from the list? Two weeks ago NCIS and NCIS: LA both had a 2.4 rating. Though NCIS: LA clearly isn't stronger than NCIS, I think should be considered a strong drama

Spot said...

One of few data points doesn't change a lot.

We should rather look at Spot's Schedules Plus, CBS Tuesday:

As of December 8, the CBS Tuesday 2013-14 lineup: NCIS (152), NCIS: Los Angeles (126) and Person of Interest (102).

Spot said...

I see your point, but that is data only up to December. Back in December LA was still getting 2.4's when the Mothership was breaking the 3.0 point.

Spot said...

Nothing really changed. Obviously, Spot has no time to refresh those posts. So let me calculate TRUE averages (not raw A18-49).
At December 8th - NCIS = 2.90, NCIS:LA 2.15.
After April 1st episodes - NCIS = 2.86, NCIS:LA 2.17.


Thus, I still think you're giving too much weight to some anectodal events.

Spot said...

Not even years, really - decades. People keep forgetting that Ugly Betty was a blip in a timeslot that's been eating scripted shows like M&M's since the '80s.

Spot said...

Fair enough. 5 strong dramas.

Spot said...

With adjustments, The Neighbors is down 40% in the demo and 25% in viewers. Still bad for a move to Friday

Spot said...

Wow at TRUE loving everyone this night. Were the viewing estimates particularly low?

Spot said...

Yes, very. It looks like lowest of the season for Friday at 8:00, 8:30 and 9:00 and pretty close in the other three half-hours.

Spot said...

Thanks! I love your TRUE metric by the way in case you haven't noticed. I am sorry I ask so many questions about it, it's just out of interest ;)

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