Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Monday 4/14/14

  • It was obvious coming into the first regular Monday after How I Met Your Mother's departure that CBS would not stack up nearly as well with the other networks. The best the shows could really hope for was to hold their regular numbers in a post-HIMYM world, and they did that quite well. I was most surprised that 2 Broke Girls (2.3) actually matched the episode that aired after the penultimate HIMYM. We'll see next week if Lindsay Lohan's 2BG guest turn actually moved the needle here. (Notably, it was also just a tick below the last time it was an "anchor" all the way back in October.) Friends with Better Lives (1.8) was the lineup's weak link out of the gate, but not by much. And Mike and Molly (2.1) and Mom (1.9) completely held up as well.
  • Everybody was original from 8-10pm and repeat at 10:00, with the only other notables being another off night for Bones (1.4) and the CW's The Tomorrow People (0.4) inching back down after last week's growth.


A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Dancing with the Stars 2.3 20% +5%+0.1n/a 2/5 +5% +5% +3% 2.5
Castle (R) 1.3 20% -13% -35% 1.2
2 Broke Girls 2.3 40% +0%+0.0n/a 17/21 -4% +15% -15% 2.4
Friends with Better Lives 1.8 40% -31%-0.8-3.1 2/2 n/a +13% -14% 1.7
Mike and Molly 2.1 36% +5%+0.1-0.5 11/17 -5% -71% -13% 2.3
Mom 1.9 35% -14%-0.3-0.5 15/22 n/a -74% -14% 2.0
Person of Interest (R) 0.9 25% -88% -49% 1.0
The Voice Mon 3.4 36% -3%-0.1n/a 7/8 -35% -3% -34% 3.6
The Blacklist (R) 1.5 33% +0% -50% 1.3
Bones 1.4 31% -13%-0.2n/a 18/21 -26% -13% -26% 1.5
The Following 1.4 41% +0%+0.0-0.2 9/13 -33% +0% -33% 1.7
Star-Crossed 0.3 50% +0%+0.0n/a 4/9 n/a +0% -14% 0.3
The Tomorrow People 0.4 48% -20%-0.1-0.1 16/19 n/a +100% +100% 0.5
Bates Motel 1.04 54% +6%+0.06
2/7 -21%

Archer 0.66 78% +47%+0.21
5/12 -22%

Dallas 0.56 35% +23%+0.11
2/8 -35%

Warehouse 13 0.43 46% n/an/a
1/1 -18%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.


Spot said...

CBS 8-10 PM A18-49 average was only 2.0. And that's slightly above expectations, sadly.

Person of Interest repeat scored nice 1.0. But NBC and ABC were in repeats too, so nothing special. Next Monday CBS tries NCIS: LA at 10 PM, and week after it, it's PoI again. By the end of April, PoI will be tested 3 times there, Elementary and NCIS: LA only once each. Elementary long time ago, in December. It's still unknown what they'll test there in May, but for Monday 10 PM in fall, currently I'd give odds:
-200 Person of Interest
400 NCIS: LA
600 Elementary
10,000 rookie drama
20,000 something else

Spot said...

I think NCIS: LA would be hurt badly by that move. If CBS moved LA after say Criminal Minds, which isn't that much worse of a lead in, it would be fine. But if it moves to Monday at 10 it will get a low 2 lead in at best. The lead in it has had is a 2.4 from the Mothership, which it is extemely compatible with. Even incompatible Rudolph still gave it a 3 lead in. I think Person of Interest and Elementary are the best choices are they both have experience being comedy lead outs.

Spot said...

It is interesting how the three repeats at 10 did relatively the same retention to their lead ins. (48%, 52%, 53%)
Friends with Better Lives had almost identifcal skew as last episode, despite its lead in skewing a whole 14% different.
The whole of CBS outdid my expectations. But still, its 1.67 average might be beaten on Thursday by a mixture of repeats and originals.
I still can't see why FOX gave the Following an early renewal. It is a midseason show that does not need that long to prepare. It was on a very clear downward trajectory. And people knew it was on (4.4 for special premiere). It also does not have a massive 18-34 to counteract bad ratings like Mindy did. It does not repeat well (unlike Bones). No critical acclaim (see Hannibal) or awards (see Brooklyn 99)

Spot said...

I'm a bigger fan of moving NCIS: LA than Elementary or Person of Interest. I don't think it's a given that Elementary would bring its whole audience over. If anything, content-wise it's the worst option of the three procedurals as it'd compete against Castle. And CBS finally solved its Tuesday at 10:00 problem with Person of Interest. To move it again for NCIS: New Orleans (or, less likely, CSI: Cyber) does both shows a disservice.

In order of preference, I'd go NCIS: LA, CSI: Cyber, Person of Interest, NCIS: NoLA, Elementary. If CBS is going to put a rookie Mondays at 10:00 it should be one that has a strong brand.

Spot said...

I wouldn't have renewed it full stop - I'd still rate Almost Human above it unless that CGI is seriously expensive. (Which, given how FOX treated it, seems likely.)

Spot said...

I'd rather watch Kirstie followed by
Dads than sit through a second minute of
Friends with Better Lives.

Spot said...

I suspect it does well internationally, lowering the bar for its domestic ratings.

Spot said...

The Tuesday lineup is acceptable (especially for a tri-drama lineup), it can stay. They're clearly invested in Elementary, so I think any audible on that is to this slot, otherwise I'd throw in one of the spinoffs. (Probably CSI Cyber, given the ratings for the NCIS NO backdoor pilot.)

Spot said...

Scratch my previous comment about the repeat retention. Before it was Blacklist, Castle, Person of Interest with 48%, 52%, and 53% respectively. They ended up being 44%, 57%, and 48% in finals.

Spot said...

Now tell us what you really think...

(sorry, just couldn't resist)

Spot said...

Why? Matt Leblanc is hilarious! :)

Spot said...

You might be after something here. My first thought was: "So what, NCIS: LA will be at 120 episodes, and Person of Interest at 68 only, they should let NCIS: LA stand on its own legs, if it can, and nurture PoI."

But then I looked into production details, and both NCIS: LA and Elementary are in house production, while Person of Interest is not CBS Productions show. Then it's logical they would put PoI on Monday 10 PM, and then so what happens:
1. if it does good (2.0 or close) - great, they fixed hole, while studio gets more seasons of it.
2. if it does bad (low 1s like Intelligence), they simply cancel it, it will have around 90 episodes, they dragged it to required number.
3. if it does mediocre (1.4 to 1.7, which is most likely, obviously), next year they move it to Sunday or Friday (or cancel it, if other veteran bubble shows and/ or new dramas are outperforming it).

While with CBS owned show, they might not be willing to take risk of the worst case scenario.

When I add PoI being out of house production, your opinion NCIS: LA is the least compatible with comedies, and my remark Elementary is the least tested in the slot out of 3 shows, then PoI seems like heavy favorite for Mon 10 PM slot. I already have it at 60% in my original post, but perhaps I should increase it to something like 75%.

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