Wednesday, April 2, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 3/30/14

  • Week four of ABC's Resurrection (2.4) saw yet another drop, though this one wasn't that severe compared to last week's 2.5, especially after it adjusted up. The good news for this show is that it's through the against-The Walking Dead half of its season at what would still be a winning level for ABC. But it's not a given that TWD was making much of an impact. Next week promises to be telling.
  • The death blow was probably dealt to all of NBC's Sunday shows, as Crisis (1.1) became the latest big week three dropper (though it adjusted up) and American Dream Builders (0.8) and Believe (1.1) inched down again as well.
  • CBS benefited from an even bigger basketball overrun lead-in than last week, posting a 6.1 in the first 20 minutes of primetime, and some major developments on The Good Wife, which vaulted it to tie a season high.
  • And Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey (1.5) also took another hit. As a show that has some heavy male 18-34 interest (like its cartoon lead-ins), this will be another show to watch next week with The Walking Dead gone.
  • UPDATE: The much-aforementioned The Walking Dead finale (8.0 with 15.7 million viewers) was the series' first spring finale not to set a new series high, but it was easily a finale record and darn close to the 8.2's that opened the fall and the spring. This marks roughly 20% growth from last week's 6.7 and about 25% growth from the spring 2013 finale (6.4). And as usual, there's simply no comparison between it and anything else scripted on TV. Its lead-out Talking Dead grew even more strongly, shattering the previous series high in Andrew Lincoln's first live appearance.


A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
America's Funniest Home Videos 1.3 26% -7%-0.1n/a 11/16 n/a -7% +100% 1.2
Once Upon a Time 2.1 40% +0%+0.0-0.1 8/15 n/a +0% +282% 2.0
Resurrection 2.4 36% -4%-0.1+0.0 4/4 n/a -6% +66% 2.2
Revenge 1.4 34% -7%-0.1-0.1 14/17 -7% -7% +40% 1.5
60 Minutes 2.8 25% +40%+0.8n/a 6/21 +12% -13% -33% 1.8
The Amazing Race 2.0 27% +11%+0.2+0.8 1/6 -13% +11% -18% 1.7
The Good Wife 1.8 21% +29%+0.4+0.2 1/16 +20% +9% -5% 1.8
The Mentalist 1.5 22% +15%+0.2+0.4 8/16 n/a +15% +20% 1.7
The Voice (R) 0.6 27% -20% -25% 0.6
American Dream Builders 0.8 33% -11%-0.1-0.2 2/2 n/a -11% -47% 1.0
Believe 1.1 29% -8%-0.1-0.1 4/4 n/a -8% -24% 1.3
Crisis 1.1 32% -15%-0.2-0.1 3/3 n/a -12% -27% 1.4
Bob's Burgers 1.0 56% -17%-0.2n/a 14/15 n/a -17% +67% 1.0
American Dad! 1.4 64% +0%+0.0-0.2 12/14 n/a +0% +75% 1.3
The Simpsons 1.9 62% +0%+0.0+0.0 9/16 n/a +0% +36% 1.7
Family Guy 2.1 64% -5%-0.1+0.0 13/15 n/a -5% +75% 1.9
Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey 1.5 49% -12%-0.2-0.1 4/4 n/a -12% +15% 1.6
The Walking Dead Spring 8.00 65% +20%+1.34
2/8 +25%

Talking Dead Spring 3.68 64% +39%+1.03
1/8 +43%

Shameless 0.84 61% +4%+0.03
6/11 +1%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.


Spot said...

S.H.I.E.L.D. 1st to 4th episode -40%, but weekly -30%, -12% and -3%.
Resurrection 1st to 4th episode -39%, but -18%, -19% and -8%.

Different path to the same decline.

S.H.I.E.L.D. had 3 more weeks of (moderate) drops until stabilizing. Resurrection has only 4 episodes left, and the last one should spike in ratings with people tuning in, expecting some mysteries would be resolved. I mean, it's that kind of show, no? So I'd expect 2.5 average for (very short) season. But more like 2.2 excluding first two episodes. Which probably would mean not great, but renewable ratings around 2.0 for show's second season.

Authors are jibber jabbering about keeping low number episodes going forward. But soon they'll come back to earth, and realize ABC isn't HBO, and them not exactly being Larry David or David Simon. Broadcast is different kind of animal, for business reasons ABC will insist on 13+ episodes Season 2, and 22 in Season 3 (but let's cross that bridge when we come to it, Season 3 is by no means guaranteed, FlashForward scenario is still possible). But it will be funny to watch if differences about show's direction would make this show another The Walking Dead regarding a revolving door slew of showrunners/authors.

Spot said...

Sampling of other episode 4s: Following 2.4 (but it was a weird fluke and rebounded to 2.9 the next week, then 2.8); Sleepy Hollow 2.8, Agents of Shield 2.8, Under the Dome 2.7

Spot said...

Can we PLEASE have a HIMYM finale question?

Spot said...

How I Met Your Mother is not Seinfeld or Friends. I mean, many people aren't aware the show is on, let alone it's ending today. So I don't expect it leaping over 5.0, but I think it could inch to it. Friends with Better Lives I'd expect very nice 3.5 or 3.6 out of 4.7 or 4.8 HIMYM. Like 3.8 for first 15 minutes, and 3.2 for the tail end, but I doubt we'll ever see that ratings break. But then Intelligence-like drop to happen in 2nd episode, due to huge change in lead-in combined with, as always, some people not liking what they saw in premiere episode.

Spot said...

It pegged a 5.2 at 8:30 the night that 2.5 Men pegged that double digit rating back in 2011. So, y'know, it's at least on the edge of possibility.

Spot said...

I think the performance of Resurrection week five depends on how much Game Of Thrones grows (assuming it doesn't shrink), and how much overlap there is between those two shows vs. between it and Walking Dead.

Spot said...

Spot's line for Walking Dead questions are getting better and better. Third time has turned out to be the charm.

I also don't think that there's a lot of Walking Dead/Resurrection crossover audience, but because WD pulls in bigger/broader audiences for its premieres and finales, I think Resurrection's minimal drop is actually its second-most impressive performance this season (with the first obviously being its debut). Feels more likely that next week we'll see a week-to-week increase since Game of Thrones isn't a WD-size performer.

Spot said...

The concept invites a split in direction, let's be honest. Do they go dark and mysterious, inspired by TWD's mind-bogglingly high ratings with the zombie theme? Or do they go light and spiritual, inspired by... Not a lot else being anywhere near that, and it probably being more on-brand for ABC?

I'm kind of expecting them to go nearer the latter but with a lot of questioning and hints of darkness - a show about soul-searching, you could say. Either way, just from an industry watching perspective, the direction they take and the ratings thereafter could be fascinating to see.

Spot said...

Television ratings bring me a lot of pain and frustration sometimes when I see some favorites of mine in bad shape but it's always such a pleasure to see the ratings for my favorite show, The Walking Dead, kicking major ass. I thought the finale was breath-taking, I loved it, these ratings are so much well deserved! Major kuddos!

Spot said...

Wow, that was some major development on The Good Wife. In finals it's 29% up w2w with The Amazing Race lead-in only 7% up.
Technically it's not season-high, because January 12th episode scored 1.83 A18-49, and this one 1.77. But that one was on the day of AFC Divisional Game (11.97 A18-49, Post-Game 8.74), so TGW had 4.03 A18-49 lead-in from 60 Minutes (I think it was entirely about A-Rod investigation).

According to Joe Adalian, this Cosmos episode had 2.0 M18-34 (and only 1.0 W18-34 to make it 1.5 A18-34). The optimist would say it's lead-in compatible, and the pessimist it's lead-in dependable. With truth probably being somewhere in the middle.

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