Friday, April 4, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 4/3/14

  • The return of CBS' Thursday lineup from basketball hiatus was relatively status quo. Everything but The Millers (2.8, rebounding from an off week last time) was within a tenth week-to-week in the prelims, but a downward adjustment for Elementary (1.5) left it down 0.2 and at a tie for a series low. The Big Bang Theory (4.9) did not make a run at the How I Met Your Mother finale for top scripted rating this week, but it should beat it in True (as the PUT estimate was roughly 5 points higher in HIMYM's full 8:00 hour on Monday than in TBBT's 30 minutes on Thursday).
  • Week two of Surviving Jack (1.2) on Fox was down just a tenth week-to-week, with American Idol (1.7) down two. The trend might be somewhat promising if it hadn't started poorly last week.
  • ABC's Scandal (2.9) gave back its gains from last week, returning to its familiar upper-2's level with both competing dramas back in the mix. And a finals uptick for Grey's Anatomy (2.7) meant it was up for a third straight week.
  • NBC struggled most against the return of CBS, with Community (0.9) at a new low, Parks and Recreation (1.1) tying its lowest rating since Community came back, and Parenthood (1.2), like Scandal, surrendering its recent gains.


A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Once Upon a Time in Wonderland 0.9 34% -10%-0.1n/a 5/13 n/a -10% -28% 1.1
Grey's Anatomy 2.7 41% +4%+0.1-0.1 6/17 -4% +2% -4% 3.0
Scandal 2.9 40% -6%-0.2+0.1 8/16 +12% -8% +9% 3.3
The Big Bang Theory 4.9 35% +0%+0.0n/a 16/19 -6% +206% -4% 5.8
The Millers 2.8 31% +17%+0.4+0.0 6/18 n/a +22% -26% 2.5
Two and a Half Men 2.5 34% +4%+0.1+0.4 3/18 -36% -14% -11% 2.4
The Crazy Ones 1.7 33% +0%+0.0+0.1 16/19 n/a -43% -35% 1.6
Elementary 1.5 24% -12%-0.2+0.0 18/19 -29% -46% -27% 1.9
Community 0.9 46% -18%-0.2n/a 10/10 -10% -18% -10% 1.2
Parks and Recreation 1.1 52% -8%-0.1-0.2 12/15 -27% -8% -27% 1.5
Hollywood Game Night 1.1 45% +10%+0.1-0.1 7/10 n/a -4% -24% 1.3
Parenthood 1.2 41% -14%-0.2+0.0 11/20 n/a -14% -23% 1.6
Hell's Kitchen 1.8 46% -5%-0.1n/a 3/4 -10% -3% -39% 2.3
American Idol Thu 1.7 28% -11%-0.2-0.1 12/12 -41% -11% -15% 2.0
Surviving Jack 1.2 34% -8%-0.1-0.2 2/2 n/a -8% -8% 1.3
The Vampire Diaries (R) 0.3 48% -63% +0% 0.4
Reign (R) 0.3 43% -45% +50% 0.4
Vikings 1.01 43% -16%-0.19
6/6 -12%

Suits 0.75 38% +5%+0.03
2/5 -27%

Sirens 0.49 54% +4%+0.02
2/6 n/a

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.


Spot said...

I wonder if free fall of almost entire Fox lineup has to do something with American Idol fading fast (plus The X-Factor's complete collapse)? I mean, with less people watching Fox unscripted shows, less people see promos for their scripted programs during those, no? And three years ago Idol was stronger than Sunday Night Football, two years ago equal to it, and now its ratings are barely beating (much cheaper) Ramsey's shows.

So it might be Idol's ratings drop is costing Fox not only in netting hundreds of millions ad dollars less, but also in it losing most of its value as a promotional platform. Double trouble, or even triple, if we count in recent bombing of Idol's direct lead-outs. It's very logical assumption, but not very useful one. Because I think it's impossible (even for Spot) to measure how much it impacts other Fox shows. May be negligible, may be a lot.

Spot said...

I agree on both counts, both that it's a real thing and that it's not all that helpful. Also works the other way... I kinda doubt it's a total coincidence that NBC struck out on dramas for like a half decade, then suddenly has had 4-5 good ones since The Voice became a big factor.

Spot said...

I think that is a series low in viewers for Elementary. Also, I thought there was some possibility that TBBT could match HIMYM in 18-49, but there was no chance in 18-34. I wonder how big the gap was there?

Spot said...

I seem to recall reading that NBC also actually lose money on Sunday Night Football (although that might not be accounting for the fact that this package also gives them one in three Super Bowls). It's quite possible that the networks could be using the NFL as a sort of loss leader (paying even more for the rights than advertising value warrants) to bring audiences into the Mon-Thurs lineup. Idol taking the whole of FOX with it in its collapse lends credence to this theory.

Spot said...

It is really bad when notorious 'lead in dependent' The Millers outrates the premiere of Friends with Better Lives with a smaller demo lead in. A really bad sign. I am expecting a 1.6 max come next airing

Spot said...

Look at those y2ys! Scandal's great +12% is the only growth, but TBBT and Grey's Anatomy are down less than the league average. Worrisome drops are Parks and Recreation and Elementary (-27% and -29%) and downright alarming drops of Two and a Half Men and American Idol (-36% and -41%!)
Parenthood was looking like a definite 13 episode wrap up last week, but not so much this week. Parenthood vs. Revolution went from 1.4 to a 1.2, to a 1.2 to a 1.3

Spot said...

R.I.P Community

Terrible year to year drops all around, ABC was clearly a winner, same for CBS sans Men and Elementary.

Spot said...

I don't know about SNF, those are huge ratings. But the very fact NBC might be in red with it (not counting how big promotional platform it is) is clear example how stupid is A18-49 season race. That's just PR crap.

ESPN surely loses looking ads only, they'll pay $1.9 billions per NFL season under new contract. But they get average $4.69 transmission fee per household, and NFL is main reason fee is so high. So it's different animal, not only ratings are in play.

CBS admits they'll lose money on Thursday Night Football. They paid (at least) $250 millions for 8 games, plus they'll cover production costs of all (17?) games of TNF, with their announcers and all. That's more than $10 millions per hour of program, very high price. But in early September they'll have on air something that might rate about 5.0 A18-49, and they'll use it to heavily promote their fall premieres of both new and returning shows. They know what they're doing.

Spot said...

I find it surprising that FOX, which has new dramas practically all year on Monday, barely repeats comedies on Tuesdays and has the talent shows on Wednesday and Thursday has the second highest repeat ratio. What is up with that?

Spot said...

Idol can't even get 100% retention out of Hell's Kitchen! Amazing!

I really am starting to believe an Idol cancellation is on. Utopia's year-round format invites it...

Spot said...

That makes a lot of sense actually. Thanks, as always for the detailed explanation. There is no other ratings website as this one, that's for sure ;)

Spot said...

Hey Spot, just wondering if you could possibly post the week-to-week 18-49+ averages for each network

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