Wednesday, April 30, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 4/29/14

  • The trainwreck just keeps coming for Fox Tuesday, but the finals helped. Glee (0.9) adjusted up to only tie its series low, while New Girl still had a new low but only by a tenth. Both shows were down roughly half from their deliveries in this week last year. The Mindy Project (1.1) still ended up fully retaining New Girl at 9:30, so that's something.
  • Though the ratings are typically dissected very closely, there's usually little evidence that backdoor pilots do any different than a show's normal ratings. Maybe Supernatural (1.0) rising suggests more-than-normal interest in Bloodlines, but more likely it was just a general upswing for the network, as The Originals (0.8) had an uptick as well. That has to be of some great relief to the network after the show's had terrible declines of late.
  • After an inconspicuous night in prelims, the finals were brutal for NBC; The Voice didn't adjust up, meaning a new low, while About a Boy (1.6) and Growing Up Fisher (1.4) adjusted down to their own new lows.
  • On CBS, NCIS (2.5) bounced back from a very low number last week, but NCIS: Los Angeles (2.1) didn't follow it upward. ABC's Agents of SHIELD (2.1) and The Goldbergs (1.7) each ended up growing by multiple tenths week-to-week.


A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Agents of SHIELD 2.1 45% +11%+0.2n/a 13/20 n/a +8% +121% 2.3
The Goldbergs 1.7 45% +21%+0.3+0.2 5/21 n/a +89% +13% 1.7
Trophy Wife 1.0 40% +25%+0.2+0.3 13/20 n/a +67% -38% 1.1
Celebrity Wife Swap 0.8 36% -11%-0.1+0.4 3/3 n/a -11% -53% 1.0
NCIS 2.5 18% +14%+0.3n/a 17/22 -19% +108% -21% 2.7
NCIS: Los Angeles 2.1 18% +0%+0.0+0.3 20/22 -5% +56% -7% 2.0
Person of Interest 1.9 21% +6%+0.1+0.0 14/21 -21% +73% +46% 1.9
The Voice Tue 2.7 31% -4%-0.1n/a 10/10 -31% -2% -24% 2.9
About a Boy 1.6 33% -16%-0.3-0.1 10/10 n/a -16% -61% 1.4
Growing Up Fisher 1.4 32% -7%-0.1-0.3 10/10 n/a -7% -67% 1.5
Chicago Fire 1.8 32% +6%+0.1-0.1 15/20 +6% +89% -5% 1.9
Glee 0.9 47% +0%+0.0n/a 14/18 -53% -5% -55% 1.0
New Girl 1.1 63% -8%-0.1-0.1 21/21 -45% +83% -45% 1.5
The Mindy Project 1.1 63% +10%+0.1+0.5 14/21 -15% +10% -15% 1.3
The Originals 0.8 57% +33%+0.2n/a 14/20 n/a +23% +45% 0.9
Supernatural 1.0 63% +11%+0.1+0.2 9/20 +11% +11% +400% 1.1
The Game 1.18 59% +20%+0.20
8/10 +43%

Let's Stay Together 0.65 57% +8%+0.05
7/10 n/a

Fargo 0.59 40% -9%-0.06
3/3 n/a

Awkward 0.51 63% -17%-0.10
3/3 -17%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.


Spot said...

I'm assuming that Glee ranks very high in the lucrative female, 18-34, upscale, college-educated, left-handed, blonde hair & green-eyed demo. Not that middle-of-the-road-skewing Almost Human was necessarily competing against it, but Fox canceled a show that averaged more than half a point higher than already renewed Glee (and Glee's average would drop another tenth if the Cory Monteith episode were stripped out) even with three fall hours coming open with X-Factor gone. The discussion about what to do with Glee for 2014-2015 has to be raging at Fox.

Other than the series premiere, this is the largest gap between New Girl and The Goldbergs since November when they've aired head-to-head. And it was a 0.5 lead for New Girl while it's the other way around this time.

Spot said...

What's happening with New Girl might be unprecedented. I mean, ratings drop acceleration over last few months. A18-49 ratings (source: Spot) are:
Season 1 low = 2.2 (average 3.23)
Season 2 low = 1.9 (average 2.30)
Fall 2013 low = 1.7 (average 1.99)
2014 low = 1.0 (average 1.41)

For fall episodes New Girl A18-49 was down 18% y2y. Bad, but acceptable. Now it's 28% down y2y (1.69 vs 2.33 through 21 episodes), and falling. Last 8 aired episodes are 43% down compared to respective 2013 episodes (1.31 to 2.30).

Spot said...

"The discussion about what to do with Glee for 2014-2015 has to be raging at Fox."

And the thing that gets me most is that they did it to themselves. That two-season renewal on April 19, 2013 came the day after it drew a 2.1 from Idol's 3.3. They to have known that both were fading out, but they doubled down, and this is what results. New Girl's drops continue to amaze me. This show aired after the Super Bowl, for crying out loud.

Spot said...

Multi-season renewals for shows like The Big Bang Theory I understand. It eliminates the annual haggling between studio & network over license fees and I imagine puts the onus more heavily on the studio to contain costs as cast members seek higher salaries in negotiations. But that type of renewal should be reserved for elite shows like TBBT. Glee was already fading in season 4 and this kind of collapse was easily foreseeable. Now Fox has a Drew Carey Show situation (famously renewed for 3 seasons before seriously fading one year into that deal; ABC ended up burning off half of the show during the summer), and I don't know what they think of doing about it. Standing pat on Tuesdays? Friday/summer burn-off? Coupled with New Girl's continued evolution into a My Name is Earl-type player, perhaps Fox Tuesdays become analogous to The CW Mondays, a Surrender Night to quarantine damaged show(s) to concentrate on other nights.

Spot said...

But that means having no live-action comedies of consequence at a time when the animated offerings are weakening, as well. The Simpsons hasn't cracked 2.0 since football season ended. That's crazy!

Spot said...

Fox could decide to pluck 9-9 from Tuesdays, pair it with a promising newbie, and drop it on Wednesdays at 8:00. 9-9 ended up on Tuesdays by default anyway: live-action/comedy blends on Sundays haven't worked, Wednesday and Thursday were soaked up by singing shows both reality & scripted, the weekends are non-starters for promising shows, and Mondays were earmarked for dramas to counter the reality shows and sitcoms on the other networks.

Spot said...

My guess is that Glee's renewal was about Fox having some very favourable licensing deals that run out after six seasons rather than its raw ratings. Admittedly, I don't think Fox was anticipating a ratings meltdown quite on this scale, though.

Spot said...

New Girl's is worse than Glee's.

I guess GUF will be canceled, true shows it is stronger than Boy, but one is directly getting Voice's lead-in. NBC comedy situation is so dreadful that there will always be a hole that Community can fill.

Spot said...

Want to see FOX being more dumb than they already are?

Since Glee's renewal was for 44 episodes and season 5 will be cut short at 20, it's almost guaranteed (per lots of sources) that it will get 24 for next season.

Glee is next season's Michael J Fox Show when it comes to level of embarassment. 0.5-0.6 ratings are waiting for it.

Spot said...

You're right about costs escalating after season 5, but I meant more in terms of international, cable and VOD sales that date back to when the show was a hit. Fox's primary focus isn't on the first-run ad revenue, even if they'll obviously be disappointed by Glee's rating trajectory. I think Fox knew exactly what they were doing with the two-season renewal.

I'm convinced that most seemingly 'weird' moves boil down to financials we can't see, and these will continue to increase as traditional first-run ad revenue becomes less lucrative and international and VOD revenue continues to increase.

That being said, there's still nothing that can rationally explain the reports that Mixology might come back.

Spot said...

This week Glee's 0.9 is 0.85. Last week's 0.9 was 0.92. That translated to 1.2 W18-34, so this week it might be only 1.1. That's not good. That's actually bad considering The Voice is in its lower rated part of the season, Pretty Little Liars on hiatus, and The Originals not as strong as during the fall.
Over last few weeks, Glee is actually bellow Bones / The Following rather low level. If it wasn't so young skewing, now even I'd start to give it 51% or more chances for moving to Friday comes fall. We'll see. It's that with so much their shows dropping so fast this spring, Fox brass will have tough task to determine which might rebound in the fall, even if it's a bit only. And which are permanently damaged, and thus ready to be dumped to Friday, or even to the bench for later burn off. I really have no clue about which shows belong in one or another category.

In the meantime, Mindy is kinda impressing with "not collapsing as much as the rest of Fox lineup". Last week's 1.04 A18-49 translated to 1.5 W18-34, so this week's 1.11 might actually be 1.6 W18-34. It makes it one of the strongest shows currently airing on Fox. Of course, because almost everything else is in a free fall, but still.

Spot said...

FYI, you never did post the full table.

Spot said...

New Girl is dowm massively even with the superbowl episode. That's just awful

Spot said...

What are they going to do? Double pump it in the summer, a la Drew Carey Show?

Spot said...

Probably fridays. But Glee's young audience is out on this day.

I can see a Raising-Hope esque burn-off.

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