Thursday, April 17, 2014

The Question, Thursday 4/17/14: Will the #ScandalFinale Blow Up?


When Scandal returned from its long winter hiatus, it was tied out to the hundredth with two-time reigning champ NCIS as the top drama on broadcast TV. But while Daylight Saving viewing depressions have battered NCIS' ratings in the spring, Scandal has remained stout in the 10/9c hour and pretty much wrapped up #1 broadcast drama honors for the first time. The only bad news for ABC is that the season must end tonight at just 18 episodes due to Kerry Washington's pregnancy. Will the #ScandalFinale blow up? That's The Question for Thursday, April 17, 2014.


Scandal This Season
3.6 (premiere, 10/3/13)
3.4 (spring premiere, 2/27/14)
3.03 (average)
2.9 -> 3.1 -> 2.9 -> 3.0 (last four weeks)

Neither of Scandal's previous finales are particularly helpful here. In season one, it had a 20%ish spike (1.9 -> 2.3), but at that point it was really still riding the Grey's Anatomy coattails, and that show had a similar growth. Scandal will not pick up any benefits from a Grey's finale bounce tonight, as that show continues airing into May. In season two, it had a major spike in the penultimate week and then didn't even grow week-to-week for the finale (3.2 -> 3.2) on an uber-crowded night. Maybe the best comp is the fall 2013 run, which had the same penultimate rating (3.0) as this spring run and went up to 3.2 for the fall finale. I expect a season finale to go up by a tick or two more than a midseason finale.

Over/Under: 3.35.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

22 comments:

Spot said...

Over with 3.5.

Spot said...

Over. I think the episode last week left a couple of big things in play so going with fan optimism!

Spot said...

OVER.

Spot said...

I predicted a 3.3 at TVMI but with a baseline like 3.35, all Scandal must do is at least a 3.36. That seems like a simple task for this red-hot drama. I'm predicting the Over.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Under (3.3)

Spot said...

Over.


Side note: it's funny that you mention the NCIS/Scandal ratings race considering that CBS is airing a NCIS rerun tonight against it.

Spot said...

Over. 3.4-3.5.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Over, just because why not?

Spot said...

I'll go with this too. For the same reasoning.

Spot said...

Over.

I really have no idea. But this broadcast show had very cableish ratings trajectory so far. Then let's assume lot of people will want to see season finale live, like it happens with cable shows. Such speculation leads me to picking over. But it's mere speculation, I have no facts to support my claims.

Spot said...

It is Maundy Thursday, which last year both Grey's Anatomy and Scandal fell a tenth on.
.
Similarly, NBC was double pumping 1600 Penn for the finale to make room for Go On as CBS is doing to The Crazy Ones for Bad Teacher.
.
Idol also hit an all time low of a 2.8 last Maundy Thursday (which would be a great rating for it this season).
I'm going to say under, because even though it isn't a major holiday, a lot of people get off Good Friday tomorrow, so it is the start of the weekend for a lot of people

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over with a 3.4

Spot said...

Over. A 3.4.

Spot said...

I've been burned going under on TWD enough, and Scandal is its only remote broadcast equivalent. Over!

Spot said...

Under (3.3)

Spot said...

What is Scandal's A18-49+ currently with the preliminary finale rating included?

Spot said...

159. The next few weeks should bring the league average down enough for low-160's by season's end.

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