Monday, April 14, 2014

The Question, Monday 4/14/14: Will Friends with Better Lives Have Better Ratings Than Expected?


CBS' highly uncertain Monday life without How I Met Your Mother begins tonight, and that includes the 8:30 timeslot premiere of newbie Friends with Better Lives. The show previewed two weeks ago with a 2.6 rating, but it'll drop huge tonight because of the downgrade in lead-in. It goes from a 5.5 for the second half-hour of the HIMYM finale to... whatever 2 Broke Girls gets in its move to 8/7c. 2 Broke Girls would be happy to stay at a 2.0+ and could well go lower. I felt before the season that FWBL could start in this slot in the high-1 range, but the show did at least 10% worse than expected out of a HIMYM finale that was at least 10% bigger than expected. So I'm adjusting this line down; I see the show going 20% or more below an already soft 2BG tonight.

Friends with Better Lives Over/Under: 1.45.

26 comments:

Spot said...

Over with a 1.6 or 1.7

Spot said...

I'll say slightly over with a 1.5.

Spot said...

Considering all the special preview collapses this year, I'm betting about a 50% drop on this one. Under.

Spot said...

Over at 1.6


2 Broke Girls is going to rate around 2.0-2.1

Spot said...

I was just wondering about the poll.
I'm going with...over because that #s so low. But I do think CBS will collapse.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

It's repeat on Saturday only retained 67% of Two and a Half Men's rating, and I think it is more compatible with 2 Broke Girls than HIMYM. I'm guess 2 Broke Girls will get a 2.1, and FWBL will get a 1.4. Close call, but premiering with 48% retention before changing the lead in that will get at best 45% of the previous one, is setting up for a disaster

Spot said...

Over. Around 1.6-1.7.

Spot said...

What are all the special previews this year? The Crazy Ones had an hour Big Bang before switching for the Millers. Almost Human went from the OT to fending for itself, The Following went from

Spot said...

The Originals. About a Boy. Growing Up Fisher. Believe most recently. Technically The Michael J.Fox show.

Spot said...

Very tough line. I do have the feeling that this night will collapse but that number just seems ridiculously low. A very hesitant over

Spot said...

I can't imagine that this night will survive (it was just 2.5 years ago that all of the lineup was over a 4!), but it will not go that low just yet. Over at a 1.6.

Spot said...

The ones that were at the forefront in my selection process are Intelligence and Believe, since they also involved big timeslot changes. (granted, this one is a smaller timeslot change, i.e. no move to a different day for the regular eps, but still...)

Spot said...

Originals, About a Boy, and Fisher didn't really see any significant changes. Originals actually went up in week 3. I also just thought of Hollywood Game Night, which had a pretty poor 1.0 premiere after the Sing Off before perking up when left on its own. And mega flop mind games after The Bachelore and then Trophy Wife.

Spot said...

I think CBS will wish they had more young viewers with better retention on Mondays moving forward. My hunch is there will be a whole lot of ugliness in CBS ratings tonight, perhaps even season lows, if not series lows for all the established shows. Therefore, I will guess 1.3 in the final ratings for Friends With Better Lives, so UNDER.

Spot said...

You nearly caught me unaware with this question, i wasn't expecting one. I'll go under. All the young viewers will leave with HIMYM, and timeslot changes don't help.

Spot said...

Under.



We Are Men will be avenged. lol

Spot said...

I would say Over at 1.8 with little to no confidence.

Spot said...

I'm saying over. It did poorly post HIMYM finale, and little chance it'll do well after 2 Broke Girls, but this bar is way too low. So high 1's, then gone from even the summer schedule.

Spot said...

Over. Though it won't be easy.

Spot said...

under... hesitantly...

Spot said...

What was the dumber move? Intelligence to Monday instead of Tuesday or Believe to Sunday instead of Monday or Tuesday?

Spot said...

Honestly, I'm one of those guys who believes shows get what they deserve based on creativity. I found Intelligence to be creatively bankrupt and never drank enough Kool-Aid to actually watch Believe, ere go I believe that both were exactly as smart as they needed to be to do justice to the quality of these shows.

Spot said...

Over.
Because premiere already rated awful, I don't expect it to drop as much as one would expect with such a change of lead-in. I think ti will be around 1.6.

Spot said...

Thursday Night Football was a saving grace for CBS.


They can move TBBT for six weeks on mondays, hurt The Voice and avoid tanking, since they'll probably launch their two new fall comedies out of it (one starting on mondays by september, the other on thursdays in november), which means both will last at least a full season.

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