Wednesday, April 2, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 4/1/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • April got off to a foolish start for Fox, where Glee (0.9) reverted to a tie with its series low from three weeks ago and the one-hour return of The Mindy Project (1.0) was at a new series low. Something to note about these shows is that while both are big W18-34 draws, they have very different 18-49 skews; Glee had about 700,000 more total viewers. This probably means Glee leans much more toward the teen end of that 18-34 demo and Mindy much more toward the 35-49 end. Given this incompatibility, I don't think Fox could've expected a lot more out of Mindy. We already know that it gets bad 18-49 ratings, and they'll always be worse without New Girl leading in. But they'll have to put up with another full hour of Mindy next week before New Girl comes back.
  • On ABC, Agents of SHIELD (2.0) was back with a two-tenths upward adjustment in finals that makes this feel like a much better result than the 1.8 in prelims. It was still a tenth behind its last original episode, but now two tenths ahead of the 1.8 when it last returned from hiatus (and when it last faced NCIS). And The Goldbergs (1.5) was back down even with the lead-in increase, continuing to appear more tied to the presence of comedy competition than to the lead-in.
  • CBS' NCIS (2.4) adjusted up off of its new low, so it's now only tied for a season low (and NCIS: Los Angeles (2.4) only tied it rather than beat it).
  • Like many of the other ugly results in the 8/7c, The Voice (3.1) adjusted up in finals, but it was still down another three tenths. but they can take some solace in lead-out comedies About a Boy (2.0) and Growing Up Fisher (1.6) continuing to hold.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Agents of SHIELD 2.0 44% -5%-0.1n/a 15/16 n/a +167% +43% 2.4
The Goldbergs 1.5 41% -12%-0.2+0.5 14/19 n/a +67% -32% 1.5
Trophy Wife 1.0 42% +0%+0.0-0.2 13/18 n/a +43% -58% 1.1
Resurrection (R) 0.7 33% +8% -50% 0.9
ABC:+80%-23%
NCIS 2.4 18% -4%-0.1n/a 18/19 n/a -6% +78% 2.8
NCIS: Los Angeles 2.4 20% +0%+0.0-0.1 9/19 n/a -2% +45% 2.4
Person of Interest 1.9 21% -5%-0.1+0.0 14/19 -30% -5% +46% 2.0
CBS:-4%+56%
The Voice Tue 3.1 33% -9%-0.3n/a 6/6 -31% -7% -30% 3.6
About a Boy 2.0 35% +0%+0.0-0.3 4/6 n/a +0% +11% 1.7
Growing Up Fisher 1.6 34% -6%-0.1+0.0 6/6 n/a -6% +14% 1.7
Chicago Fire (R) 0.9 27% -5% +6% 1.1
NBC:-6%-16%
Glee 0.9 44% -18%-0.2n/a 12/14 n/a -18% -55% 1.1
The Mindy Project 1.0 68% -33%-0.5-1.0 15/15 -23% -17% -23% 1.4
The Mindy Project 1.0 68% +0%+0.0+0.1 15/16 -23% -23% -23% 1.3
Fox:-19%-42%
The Originals (R) 0.2 41% -64% -20% 0.2
The 100 (R) 0.3 40% -70% +50% 0.4
CW:-68%+11%
Big5:-6%-9%
The Game 1.24 56% -8%-0.11
5/6 +51%


Cougar Town 0.75 62% +9%+0.06
3/13 -22%


Let's Stay Together 0.69 52% +12%+0.07
4/6 -7%


Justified 0.60 38% -5%-0.03
12/12 -28%



KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

15 comments:

Spot said...

Was there a big sporting event or something at 8? That 8.3 combined seems oddly low.

Spot said...

Are the NBC sitcoms steady performances a sign of having their own audiences yet? Considering the pilot on a weekend late night, last minute rerun instead of episode 2's, movement to another night, and shrinking The Voice (4.7 -> 3.0), their hold looks very impressive. True must have them growing week to week.

Spot said...

Does this mean that the New Orleans spin-off is dead? Both episodes were rated pretty low.

Spot said...

It doesn't help NCIS: NoLa's case, but working in the potential show's favor is how CBS bombed out with dramas this year. Whether off-brand (serialized Hostages) or on (procedural Intelligence), the Eye had a rare drama strikeout season. My gut says one of the spinoffs gets the green-light, the other being CSI: Cyber, so CBS can focus on finding new sitcom anchors.

Spot said...

Mindy is where 2 months ago I said it will be now. Because of 2 months hiatus, and returning in low HUT April. But what I didn't expect (and surely Fox didn't too) is: Brooklyn Nine-Nine averaging 1.3 A18-49 in supposedly better 9:30 PM timeslot, after it averaged 1.6 in 8.30 PM slot (inflated premiere and post-SB episode excluded). That's awful, that's Dads level. Mindy will surely have 1.3+ in W18-34 for this last, low-rated batch of 8 episodes. And even it will be only 1.3, that's 1.75 W18-34 season average. Shaky, but true winner compared to 1.52 A18-49 by B99 and 1.38 by Dads.

Glee and NCIS disappointed. On the other hand NCIS: LA, About a Boy, and Grow up Fisher all hold well.

ABC Tuesday lineup consists of nothing but a losers. "S.H.I.E.L.D." : retool it, or move it to Disney Channel, otherwise 12 months from now it's a dead show walking. From ABC presser: S.H.I.E.L.D. shot up over its last original by 38% in Teens 12-17 (+38%), while retaining 90%+ in other demos.

The Goldbergs: for those who like to keep score; in True ratings Last Man Standing recently overtook Goldbergs (despite its huge premiere episode number). Suburgatory was ahead already from before.

Trophy Wife is like that character from a spaghetti western: the one buried up to his neck while others find amusement in ants eating him alive. Does sane person keeps something like that on schedule? That was a rhetorical question.

Spot said...

In high 1s S.H.I.E.L.D. is only breaking even. Experience learns us such a show returns in high 1s, gradually falls to mid 1s, and ends Season 2 with low 1s. See Nashville. And low 1s are so in red, that 44 episodes is absolute maximum. Chances for not-retooled S.H.I.E.L.D. to live after 44 episodes: around 1%.

And it's doing even worse in M18-34, down to mid 1s already. BTW, winning over other networks means nothing (in any demo), that's stupid PR stuff networks publish for stupid people. ABC get ads money based on their shows' ratings, not on how good or bad are rated other networks' shows.

Live+7 ? WTH? You're new to this ratings stuff, aren't you? Those are meaningless.

60 minutes commercial that isn't watched by anyone is no better than 60 minutes of dead air. And that's what S.H.I.E.L.D. is going to be 12 months from now, the show practically no one watches.

Spot said...

Wow. Those are some crazy ass claims. We'll have to agree to disagree on every point, but you are most definitely wrong on all points. I referenced the huge 18-49 DVR ratings increase as a sign of strong continued viewer interest, nothing else. WTF?

Spot said...

Jesus, calm down. Did Joss Whedon run over your dog or something?

Spot said...

I never read any of the network PR releases, but whatever...it's apparent you passionately dislike SHIELD and/or you are not having a very good day. So good day to you. I will disengage from this discussion and all this pointless silliness with you.

Spot said...

LOL. Thanks for stepping in here but totally not necessary. The point I was attempting to convey about big 7 Day DVR 18-49 demo increases was that it indicates good key demo fan "interest" in a show (versus completely falling off the viewer radar). If I'm not mistaken (and without looking at the charts), SHIELD's Live + 7 Day DVR ratings in the 18-49 demo typically place it in or near the top 10 shows for the week which conveys strong interest in the show to me, in spite of the soft live ratings. And yes, of course, advertisers don't use this to determine ad rates paid (at least, not yet).

Spot said...

My opinion is based on cold numbers.
That dude is copy/pasting meaningless numbers (like Live+7 percentage raise, and to the point of irrelevance low M18-34) from press releases. That's not opinion, that's fan obsession.
You don't have nor opinion, nor numbers.

I answer with more numbers, you call me asshole. And I'm problem here?

Please, be free to write your not-opinions (or JS-dude-like not on numbers based "opinions"), just try not to post it as answer to my comment. I's really hard to communicate with someone on so lower level of understanding how the things really work.

Spot said...

Seriously, tell me what part of telling people that they are on a lower level of understanding isn't asshole-ish. I get it, you're really smart, and I'm an idiot who doesn't know anything. I don't have a problem with your interpretation of numbers, I have a problem with your attitude. You don't seem to get it.

Spot said...

The backdoor pilot ratings probably make sure it is a No to NCIS NO, and I'd agree that CSI Cyber is now almost certainly heading for the schedule. On the other hand, NCIS LA has shown it's more than just a retainer now, and can survive a timeslot move...

Spot said...

"April got off to a foolish start..."

Amazing. I admire your gift for creative ratings report writing, Mr. Spot.

Spot said...

I can't wait for CBS's upfront announcement of next fall's Wednesday schedule which could feature a 14-year-old show leading into a ten-year-old show leading into a fifteen-year-old show.

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