Friday, January 17, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 1/16/14


WHAT MATTERS:

  • If Wednesday's premiere of American Idol (4.7) brought a little bit of hope back to the franchise, the Thursday premiere (3.9) was far less encouraging; it was nearly 20% off of the Wednesday number against less competition (including CBS' comedies in repeats), and down 30% year-to-year. For comparison, the 2013 edition had a 6.0 Wednesday premiere and only dropped to 5.6 on night two.
  • Even with Idol a disappointment and CBS sitting out, most of the originals on ABC and NBC got massacred. NBC was down big in the 8:00 hour with Community (1.1) and Parks and Recreation (1.2), but the particularly unreal result came at 9:30 as The Michael J. Fox Show hit a 0.6!
  • And ABC was way down with competing reality series The Taste (0.9), but Shark Tank (1.2) proved a massive improvement on cancelled The Assets. When The Assets was pulled, I wondered if ABC should consider moving The Taste to 9-11 to avoid Idol, and it's hard not to feel even stronger after this result.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Taste 0.9 35% -31%-0.4n/a 3/3 n/a -29% -55% 1.0
Shark Tank (R) 1.2 42% +100% -54% 1.6
ABC:-5%-55%
The Big Bang Theory (R) 2.9 31% -49% -9% 2.9
The Millers (R) 1.9 31% -42% -17% 1.7
The Crazy Ones (R) 1.2 29% -50% -29% 1.1
Two and a Half Men (R) 1.2 29% -50% -25% 1.4
Elementary (R) 1.0 19% -50% -29% 1.3
CBS:-48%-21%
Community 1.1 45% -21%-0.3n/a 3/3 n/a -21% -15% 1.2
Parks and Recreation 1.2 50% -20%-0.3-0.3 4/8 -37% -20% -37% 1.4
Sean Saves the World 0.8 38% -20%-0.2-0.3 11/12 n/a -20% -62% 1.0
The Michael J. Fox Show 0.6 38% -40%-0.4-0.2 13/13 n/a -40% -50% 0.8
Parenthood 1.2 38% -8%-0.1-0.4 8/13 -37% -8% +4% 1.6
NBC:-19%-31%
American Idol Thu 3.9 37% n/an/an/a 1/1 -30% +457% -31% 3.9
Fox:+457%-31%
Critic's Choice Movie Awards 0.4 26% -33% +14% -57% 0.4
CW:+14%-57%
Big5:+24%-35%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

10 comments:

Spot said...

After Olympics NBC should dump Sean Saves the World and The Michael J. Fox Show to Saturday, and move Community and Parks and Recreation block to 9 PM to test if either is doing any better when not airing against Idol+TBBT. Plus put The Night Shift at Thursday 8 PM, thus avoiding direct clash with Grey's.

Or at least double up SSTW and MJF on first 2 or 3 Thursdays after Olympics to burn it off, and after it go as I suggested above: Night Shift / Community / P&R / Parenthood.
It's possible to go that way, because Night Shift has only 8 episodes order. If it premieres March 27, finale would be May 15.

Spot said...

I had a similar thought re: shifting The Taste. Let a Shark Tank rerun take the hit in the more difficult hour; I imagine it would at minimum end up providing the same kind of lead-in level as the 7:30 local programming.

Meanwhile, what happened with Community and P&R? I didn't think there would be a lot of audience overlap with Idol. But if so, Community is really going to take it on the chin when The Big Bang Theory comes back with originals.

Spot said...

I don't understand why CBS insists on bringing their comedies back early, then sitting out Idol premiere week. BBT could have served the finishing blow last night.

Spot said...

I think it makes sense. They are trying to grow The Millers and The Crazy Ones. Why have them exposed to what is likeliest the highest rated FOX hour of the season and then have it air repeats later when FOX is weaker? This makes much more sense, it's how you grow shows!

Spot said...

Thoughts:
- excellent suggestion about moving up the taste to 9pm. Of course, because it's a good idea, ABC will not do it lol. Speaking of ABC, impressive how a freaking Shark Tank repeat practically ties Nashville, beats Killer Women, beats The Assets and beats Betrayal (from the 10pm shows). I wonder if ABC is sitting on a gold mine by keeping it on Fridays, it's really a horrible call to make
- speaking of repeat beasts... Those TBBT are incredible and the others didn't repeat too poorly either.
- I don't even know what to say about NBC. My poor Community! I don't want to imagine when it has to go up against both Idol and TBBT at the same time. Those 9pm numbers... just wow. I think NBC would have been confortably beaten by the CW last night had it aired. Also, the bubble really doesn't change between Parenthood and Revolution.
- Idol had a least promising second night, but it's still by far FOX's best property.

Spot said...

I do see what you're saying, but I doubt Parks nor Community would do that well without Idol or Big Bang. They'd have to face now Grey's, and possibly Rake if it's successful, and if my memory serves me right, Parks only did slightly better in the 9 PM hour, and even then it was under The Office; I don't think even NBC doubts either would do better significantly, and I also doubt NBC has faith in Night Shift either. The show reeked of summer burn-off from the beginning; it's post-upfront buzz was poor, it has a cast of unknowns, and it was the only drama minus CPD that didn't have a slot planned in midseason on their original schedule.


What I see though is this: Since Michael has I believe two episodes more than Sean, and given both of their poor ratings, both will end in late March, with MJF getting a one-hour finale, all the while, Community and Parks and Rec air their episodes together, with the whole block having some repeats, and special Thursday episodes of American Ninja Warrior, Hollywood Game Night, The Voice, and SNL.

Spot said...

So, basically you suggest NBC does nothing with Thursday until next season. Despite having 1.0 average primetime rating last night, and probably will be regularly beaten by The CW in 8-10 PM period as soon as The Vampire Diaries is back. Come to think of it, that's usual behavior of network execs species, especially those from ABC habitat - so NBC is probably gonna do exactly that.

If it was any other situation, I'd agree with you. But NBC Thursday ratings are so abysmal that it costs them nothing to mix things up a bit. I believe in football they call it "free play".

Spot said...

Last episode of Parks and Recreation was the 100th episode. I think it had a halo effect on the whole night. But with Idol back and no 100th episode, the night just collapsed.

Spot said...

Ya know, I'm starting to see why it's a good idea. True that both Sean and Michael are zombies, and it's very likely NBC would want some comedy spackle, in case one of their shows fail, so a 9 PM test might do well, and Night Shift while I doubt would do well, could go away quickly anyway. And for all we know, NBC could give some changes. They have conferences tomorrow and Sunday after all.

Spot said...

The TRUE metric looks very odd to me. What's up with the crazy bump up for the 10pm shows and barely any bump to all the shows that were killed off by Idol?

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