Tuesday, January 21, 2014

First Two Weeks, Early January Premieres

Not really feeling like going through the full First Two Weeks motions for all these shows since most are so clear-cut, so I'm just gonna hit the bunch all at once with some quick thoughts.

The Assets (ABC) - 0.7 -> 0.6 (-14%)
I'm not sure there was ever an option for a second season here, but then I also thought there was never any chance it would get ratings worthy of making it a real decision. If you want to accuse me of padding my stats, I won't hold it against you, but CANCEL. (It's already happened.)

Intelligence (CBS) - 2.4 -> 1.2 (-50%)
I'm playing a little fast and loose here with the definition since the first episode was technically a "preview," but I want to get it over with! The timeslot difference wasn't as drastic with this "preview" as with something like Almost Human, plus there was just about the normal full week in between the episodes. 50% is a catastrophic drop even considering the timeslot change. CANCEL.

Killer Women (ABC) - 0.9 -> 0.7 (-22%)
Not officially cancelled, but its TCA panel was cancelled and it will end early so ABC can send its next lamb to the Tuesday 10/9c slaughter. CANCEL.

Chicago PD (NBC) - 2.0 -> 1.5 (-25%)
In both weeks, Chicago PD did just about the minimum number it needed to give itself a decent chance. A big drop was to be expected with its SVU lead-in dropping and the returns of CSI, Nashville and Duck Dynasty. But I've fallen into the "a big drop was to be expected, so it's OK" trap before. It could still drop again, and it doesn't have to drop that much to be below 50/50. DEFER.
(UPDATED 1/29/14) WEEK THREE: 1.5 -> 1.6 (+7%)
Full disclosure: I forgot to update this till after I saw the week four preliminary, which saw PD up yet another tenth. But I was always saying renew in this spot; no point deferring if I'm gonna say cancel after it grows in week three. It wouldn't be unreasonable to be a bit hesitant here, as the week three uptick may be largely because of a much bigger spike from its SVU lead-in (1.8). And the further growth in week four may be because CSI went into repeats. So I'm not a bonafide believer yet, but this is positive enough for me to put it over 50/50. RENEW.

Enlisted (Fox) - 0.7 -> prelim 0.6 (-14%)
Somewhat surprised with how much the Fox brass are talking this show up, given the "please forget about it quickly" scheduling. But I'm pretty sure the actions speak louder than the words here. Flipping it with Raising Hope felt like the least they could do, and they didn't even do that. CANCEL.

"First Two Weeks" is an ongoing experiment to see how often a new scripted show's fate can be predicted by the very earliest data. Here are the picks and lineups for every show this season.

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