Thursday, January 23, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 1/19/14

  • After finals, Fox's NFC Championship Game ended up with 55.91 million viewers and a 19.0 demo rating, 13% ahead of what CBS did in the same window last year. Riding a thrilling end to the game, the post-game show was 24% ahead of last year's post-game, which surely helped the season premiere of The Following (4.4) at 10:19 Eastern/7:19 Pacific. It scored a series high and roughly 25% ahead of last season's Hawaii Five-0 (3.5) in the lead-out role.
  • ABC was the only network that dared go original against the game with Revenge (1.3) and the last episode of Betrayal (0.7) each dropping week-to-week. Revenge's January trajectory was fairly similar to last year (2.4 -> 2.0 -> 1.7 last year, 1.8 -> 1.6 -> 1.3 this year), but on the whole these against-event episodes did better compared to the fall numbers. (This rating only tied a season low, whereas the late January 2013 eps were well below anything from the fall.) And again, it's noteworthy that these January airings had much worse lead-ins. (The 8/7c Bachelor special averaged a 0.9.)


A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
America's Funniest Home Videos (R) 0.9 26% -14% -33% 1.0
The Bachelor Special 0.9 29% -10%-0.1-0.1 3/3 n/a -5% -63% 1.3
Revenge 1.3 31% -19%-0.3-0.1 12/13 -24% -19% -21% 1.8
Betrayal 0.7 27% -13%-0.1-0.3 11/13 n/a -7% -46% 0.9
60 Minutes (R) 1.3 21% -91% -92% 1.4
The Good Wife (R) 0.7 20% -83% -96% 0.9
The Mentalist (R) 0.7 19% -61% -96% 1.1
Criminal Minds (R) 1.0 21% -43% -82% 1.3
Dateline Sun (R) 0.8 23% -50% +23% 0.9
Movie: Bridesmaids 0.9 35% n/a -86% +3% 1.3
NFC Championship Game 19.0 43% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +980% +1134% 14.3
NFC Championship Post-Game 11.3 47% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +391% +606% 8.1
The Following 4.4 50% n/an/an/a 1/1 +38% n/a n/a 2.7

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.


Spot said...

I still am on the fence about the Revenge fourth season renewal. I guess we will have to see how it does at 10, but it is down 34% year to year before this episode aired, so it will probably get worse. I know the 4 seasons for syndication precedent, but it is a serial that won't repeat well. It doesn't have anything Supernatural about it, so something like G4 (which syndicates LOST and Heroes) won't take it. I honestly think that ABC should just cut their loses here. Or renew Revenge for a 22 episode final season and double pump them during December, January, and February while OUAT and whatever else ABC puts is on hiatus. It would still probably out rate the Bachelor specials.

Spot said...

I think ABC Sundays are very interesting. In my opinion, they're the only network who should be programming scripted Sundays. Think about it—ABC's female-oriented dramas should be perfect counter-programming to The Walking Dead/Game of Thrones. The OUAT/Revenge combo was doing great until a combination of bad scheduling and a creative low point hit last winter. Although Revenge has no future at this point, Once will probably still be a useful second-tier drama for ABC. It just shouldn't be on Sundays anymore. In my opinion, ABC should be really ballsy next fall with Sundays. Here's what they should do:
7: America's Funniest Home Videos
8: Shark Tank
9: Scandal
10: White Eye (New Drama)
Shark Tank and Scandal are their two best properties, an they should move them here if they want to have an actual presence on Sundays. I am thinking that both CBS and NBC will start to lean towards reality-heavy Sundays (as they should) which should open up a slot for ABC as the only broadcaster with dramas. OUAT would move to Tuesdays to help out Agents of SHIELD. Revenge would spend one final season in the Thursday at 8 PM slot so ABC could focus on a new drama at 10 PM. (Side note: Keep in mind that Scandal Sundays seems like a much better proposition if ABC lands Thursday Night Football)

This schedule is a really risky path, so of course ABC won't do it. I would definitely want to see them try, though.

Spot said...

TVBytheNumbers are saying that 4.4 IS the time-adjusted number, which would give me a rare win for a big event. The half-hours are something to behold, though. 6.7 and 3.6. Yeesh. That's some drop-off. Is the violence really bad enough to do that?

Spot said...

I have to disagree. There are channels like Lifetime and the Hallmark Channel that could fit in there, and some affiliates for CW or regular syndication channels might give it an eye. And there's the fact on how close Revenge is to the fourth season. It only needs 22 to get to 88, unlike how Happy Endings or Suburgatory would need at most 2 seasons in order to get past said mark. And of course, even if it does get cancelled, it doesn't mean it can't get into syndication. Freaks and Geeks is on FXX, and Happy Endings is on VH1.

Spot said...

Those are not The Following half-hours, those are Fox 10-11PM half-hours.That 6.7 half-hour consists of 18 minutes of Post-Game and 12 minutes of
The Following, while 3.6 half-hour consists entirely of TF. Thus such a big drop.
both numbers don't include West Coast viewers where Post-Game aired
5:54-6:18 PM with The Following at 6.18-7:18 PM. They do include
whatever low-watched program West Coast affiliates had at 10-11PM.

Spot said...

It's true that a show can get into syndication without 88+ episodes, but that's rare. The truth is that the production companies will be able to charge much higher for shows with 4 or more full seasons. Shows with more episodes are considered easier to syndicate and are more wanted by channels that air syndicated shows. So basically, more episodes = greater margin of profit. I also don't doubt that any Revenge syndication package would look a lot better with a conclusive series finale.

Spot said...

To use last year as an example, H50 had a 5.4 -> 2.7 in the prelims and became a much less drastic 4.4 (10:16-10:30) -> 3.2 (10:30-11:00) in finals.

Spot said...

Duly noted.

Spot said...

Last spring CBS made complicated deal for syndication of serialized The Good Wife netting them more than $2 million per episode. So it can be done. Even if ABC Studios is able to sell Revenge at only half of that price, that's $88 million = season 4 of Revenge is 99% sure.

In a multiwindow deal that involves a basic cable network (Hallmark Channel), a pair of streaming partners (Amazon Prime and Hulu Plus) and a weekend broadcast syndication schedule, CBS has put together a package that reflects the increasing fragmentation of the traditional television audience.

“This is an off-network model for a unique serialized show in today’s television ecosystem,” said Leslie Moonves, president and CEO, CBS Corp., by way of announcing the arrangement. “It uses creative windowing to serve the content needs of best-in-class partners while realizing the full syndication value for a high-quality series. In addition, the potential for catch-up viewing across multiple platforms can provide incremental value to future broadcasts on CBS.”

While the financial underpinnings of the overall package were not disclosed, analysts estimated the aggregate value at slightly more than $2 million per episode.

Spot said...

No, ABC won't do it. No one sane would, that's not how scheduling is done.

1. You don't fix what's not broken. So ABC won't tinker with their strong Thursday and Friday lineups. Scandal stays on Thursday (only maybe moved to 9 PM to provide strong lead-in to other drama), Shark Tank stays on Friday (last season they tested it on a weekday, it didn't went well).
2. ABC surely won't throw their "best properties" against NFL, awards shows and other specials (causing erratic scheduling at best), and never stronger cable competition. Because their goal isn't to decrease value of those properties.
3. Sunday isn't so important night, ABC isn't fixated on fixing it. Sure, they'd like things to go better there, but under no circumstances would they weaken two other nights in a possible futile effort to improve Sunday ratings.

Spot said...

Yeah, that was an interesting deal for Good Wife, especially as it was only made during season 4 and in turn led to a season 5. Revenge will be another case study, on another network, of how to handle a marginal rated established serial, and I'm fascinated by what ABC will do with it.

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