Thursday, January 23, 2014

The Question, Thursday 1/23/14: Will Fox's New Legal Drama Rake In the Viewers?


Fox's Greg Kinnear legal show Rake premieres tonight after American Idol (3.8 last Thursday, preliminary 4.0 this Wednesday). As with Chicago PD's premiere, the competition makes this feel like a spot where the show needs to overachieve to have much of a chance. ABC is in filler mode, NBC is in disaster mode and CBS is in repeat mode (though CBS' The Big Bang Theory repeat at 9/8c means they won't be far off of their usual original average). Later in the season, Grey's Anatomy and the Olympics are coming, and the Idol lead-in is dropping, so starting respectably is critical.

Over/Under: 2.35.

20 comments:

Spot said...

Over. But Big Bang repeat might still win

Spot said...

Yes. Or leave TBL where it is and put Revolution on Friday 10 PM. But that's not my point. The point is: if CPD can stay at 1.5+ ratings, then it would be 5th best rated NBC's drama, even with occasional 1.4s it would be. Such modest ratings still would ensure renewal.
And, I said NBC won't renew only 4 dramas, which implies I mean they'll renew at least 5 of them (not counting cheap co-productions). Nowhere I said that's gonna be exactly 5 dramas.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Over. With Idol in the mid 3's I think this can at least get 2.4.

Spot said...

Ugh. Big Bang rerun will take a chunk out. Idol could well be in the low-3s and retention out of it has never been good. I don't think it's going to happen. Under at 2.2.

Spot said...

Over (2.4)

Spot said...

Under.
I don't see why this would have good retention out of never weaker Idol. So I think somewhere around 1.8.

Spot said...

I get the feeling Fox knows something about this show that we don't, and my main inkling on that idea is how Rake was originally going to get the post-NFC slow until Fox swapped in The Following. It, to me, is a high-concept show ("It's House, but he's a lawyer!"), but it's based on the concept that was the most successful drama for Fox in the past decade. I'm giving the show a few extra ticks than what I'm expecting for its season for three reasons: Fox's drama track record this season, extra interest that a series premiere draws relative to its following weeks, and the abnormal/non-existent competition it gets to face tonight.

Over.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Under, cuz it looks crap.

Spot said...

FOX decided to use their once-in-six-years combination of the NFC Championship and Super Bowl to give the coveted slots to The Following premiere and... A four-year flameout comedy leading into a freshman bubble show. When they had this on deck.

I'm figuring they know something we don't here. Under.

Spot said...

The economic arguments seem to lean towards Chicago PD. It's pretty obvious that they see Dick Wolf's Chicago franchise as a central part of the network for some time to come (that post-Voice sophomore slot for Chicago Fire was essentially a three-year renewal announcement, as it all but assured a season three and that in turn assures a season four), and I'd imagine it's cheaper than both Revolution and (especially) Parenthood.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Don't know about promotion, since I DVR B99, and watch nothing else, but I'll say Over. It does have a good lead-in, with no competition, and it's House as a lawyer, and seeing how it's Fox's most successful drama, fans might want to tune in.

Spot said...

over

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Over, a 2.5. I would dare to guess that AI is at a 3.4 tonight.

Spot said...

OK, If AI drops 20% from last week, it'll be about a 3. Can Rake keep 80% of Idol's audience? Bad titles don't usually affect premieres too badly. It might do well enough in the first half-hour even if it doesn't retain much. I had never heard of Kinnear before this, but that is probably just me,


Idol just isn't a good lead-in for anything at this point. Under, 2.2


This is a tough call, because the last time a new drama was paired with Idol, the ratings were nearly double. There's not a lot of precedent here.

Spot said...

1.9/1.6

What a flop. =|

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