Saturday, January 18, 2014

The Question, Sunday 1/19/14: Will NFC Championship Viewers Watch The Following Program?


Last year, The Following was the show that started broadcast TV's "limited series" craze, signing up major film actor Kevin Bacon with the promise that the seasons would be short enough to give him scheduling flexibility. And it overcame mixed-to-negative reviews to become the 2012-13 regular season's biggest new series. Though its audience faded considerably through the season, it finished on a couple of upticks, and it should have a good opportunity to start off season two positively since it leads out of the NFL's huge NFC Championship Game. Will NFC Championship viewers watch The Following program? That's The Question for Sunday, January 19, 2014.

The Following Last Season Post-Championship Game Shows
3.2 (premiere, 1/21/13)
2.63 (average)
2.7 (finale, 4/29/13)
3.5 (Hawaii Five-0, 1/20/13, game 16.8)
7.9 (American Idol, 1/22/12, game 21.4)
5.6 (Hawaii Five-0, 1/23/11, game 19.7)
4.6 (The Mentalist, 1/18/09, game 14.7)
4.7 (Without a Trace, 1/21/07, game 17.6)
9.2 (Numb3rs preview, 1/23/05, game 17.6)

The lead-in game is between Seattle and San Francisco. It probably features the two best NFC teams, and it's projected to be pretty close, but the fact that it's two West Coast teams may damage the casual tune-in where most of the population lies.

I think this outrates last year's Hawaii Five-0 because Fox is much more invested in this show from a promotional standpoint than CBS was with Five-0 at this time last year. Last year's Five-0 was pretty much just another episode in the middle of the season and was promoted as such. Fox is advertising this second season premiere more aggressively. However, The Following's subject matter may not be the best fit with the family viewing event.

Over/Under: 4.15.

THIS GAME CLOSES AT A SPECIAL TIME: SUNDAY (1/19) AT 6:00 PM ET. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

26 comments:

Spot said...

Under. I'm just not seeing higher than a 4.0 for a serial that is no longer very buzzy. 3.8 and it holds okay to a 3.0 for the second episode.

Spot said...

Over, only because everything but Hawaii five-0 managed it so why not the following

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Tough one this. Could be *way* over, but I'm fancying a possible blowout - it happened in the primetime 49ers @ Seahawks game in the regular season, and the crowd won't be any louder (nor Kaepernick any better at clock management).

Between that, the factors you mention (West Coast game, mature content) and the serialised nature, I'm gambling on Under.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over.
I think season premiere would get high 2s if it aired in regular timeslot. If I'm right, huge lead-in should boost it over 4. Not by much, I see it somewhere in 4.1 to 4.4 range. On 4.25 line I'd have to flip coin, on 4.15 I must say over, with moderate confidence though.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

I'd say Over. All of them minus H-50 all did above 4.15, and if it's a big game (as in, both sides have a feud or rivalry; dunno, don't watch sports.) I see big numbers.

Spot said...

I doubt ABC would do that, what with how successful Shark Tank has done. It's been one of their most successful anchors in a long time. Well, unless ABC moves it to Thurs 8 a la CSI, and Fridays could be given for multi-cam and syndication seasons. It seems likely that Suburgatory could go in the Fridays slot if it gets renewed though, and given deathslots, who knows what will happen next year?

Spot said...

They're both divisional rivals, so it's definitely a big matchup. However, it's an all-West Coast one, which offsets that in terms of the general audience given that the population still skews eastward.

I'd say "expect some big adjustments in finals" and then I remembered that FOX will almost certainly order time zone adjusted fast nationals...

Spot said...

Unfortunately I don't follow American Football, and am not quite sure of the impact this game will have. I'll go UNDER, just because I haven't heard many people talking about The Following since its highly popular premiere.

Spot said...

I feel compelled to go Over on this one.

Spot said...

I don't know anything about sports. But people like Kevin Bacon, the ads are well done (even though the show is terrible), second season premieres of serials well-rated in their first seasons tend to do well, its lead in will likely be at least eight times as large as the season premiere, all result in me saying Over.

Spot said...

Over at a 4.4. I think that the game will be close, helping The Following.

Spot said...

5.5

OVER

Spot said...

The sad part is that ABC is such a state in that "death slot," they could put a rerun there and it would likely outrate Once...Wonderland. Heck, a Boxing Day repeat managed a 1.3, and O...W hasn't gotten that since its premiere!

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over, 4.3. This one's tough to predict. The game may just be big enough lift this not-so-buzzy series. The second episode will probably see a 2.8.

Spot said...

The West Coast teams thing doesn't bother me; it's the post-game wrap-up talking heads that may start encouraging tune-out. But, Fox has been aggressive in pushing the show. They've had a good track record with debuting dramas lately. And because of the football game there's no major competition on any channel tonight.

Over.

Spot said...

I hate these kind of questions. They always end up being more about the lead-in than the actual show. Over at 4.5.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

. The Mentalist left with a good cliffhanger last week, and I gotta wait another week just because of the Brady vs. Manning post-game undercard??? @#$@#%%@$#@$@#

Spot said...

It's impressive how much Dateline helps Grimm.

Spot said...

Actually, it's more like eight weeks - The Mentalist is on hiatus until March 9th.

Spot said...

That was one very healthy Friday with 9 broadcast shows at 1.4 or better ratings. With Discovery's Gold Rush it's round 10 shows at 1.4+.

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