Monday, January 6, 2014

The Question, Monday 1/6/14: Will The Bachelor Have Another Rosy Season?


Tonight's biggest broadcast event is the return of ABC's The Bachelor, which looks to follow up on a very strong season a year ago. Though the competition will get much tougher in February as the Olympics and then The Voice show up, tonight there's practically no broadcast resistance. The only major competitor is ESPN's BCS Championship Game, which will get a huge rating but probably won't have a ton of cross-over audience. Will The Bachelor have another rosy season? That's The Question for Monday, January 6, 2014.


The Bachelor Last Season
2.3 (premiere, 1/7/13, -4% year-to-year)
2.75 (average, +7% y2y)
3.5 (finale, +21% y2y)

The Bachelorette had a relatively weak season last summer, so I predicted this Bachelor season would also take a pretty sizable year-to-year decline. However, most of that pain is going to be felt in the second half of the season. This show's seasons usually start slow and build big, but that growth was much smaller in 2012 when The Voice arrived in early February. A similar competition change is coming again in February, and this premiere faces even less competition than usual. That should keep it close to even year-to-year tonight.

Over/Under: 2.25.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

22 comments:

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

over

Spot said...

2.5

OVER

Spot said...

I think you are discounting how huge the Hostages finale is going to be in the 9:00 hour. :-)

In any event, this feels deceptively easy. Last year, The Bachelor had to face The Biggest Loser and the BCS game. Without a competing reality show to divide the audience, and the promo push that this is the first minority Bachelor, I think the show can at least hold steady.

Over.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

I know I'm going against the grain, but Under at 2.1/2.2ish. I just don't think it'll be exactly even.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over.
To quote Spot: "practically no broadcast resistance". Then I think 2.5 or 2.6.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

I believe the rose stays on the bud...for now.


Over.


Unfortunately, if I'm right, eternity will once again lie in question.

Spot said...

Over at a 2.5. The BCS game will get huge numbers, possibly nearing a 10 if we get a good game. Auburn-FSU is not as high-profile of a matchup as Alabama-Notre Dame was last year, but if the game is close (last year's was 42-14), it could do a lot better. Needless to say, I will be watching football tonight.

Spot said...

This is another show I'm an anti-fan of, but I got burned going Under on TBL when that came up.

I'm tempted by the under here still - has anyone watched ABC lately? But TBL is very decent competition for Batchelor, especially in January when it has a built-in audience from it being peak shame-and-guilt season, and now it doesn't face it. So Over. And this is one I'd love to miss on.

Spot said...

Over I assume

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

For some reason this one is reminded me a lot of that Survivor question in which we all but one person said Over and that one person was right. We shall see.

Spot said...

Revenge has went up 0.3 tents before without any change in the environment so I don't want to read too much into this especially as there were multiple factors in the mix here (new lead-in, different competition, back from buzzy fall finale). But if this holds (and again it will be very hard to read it because next week there is the globes competition to distort all reads), it would appear that the Body of Proof paradigm is back and kicking again, as in, a lower-rated lead-in being stronger than a higher-rated one as long as it is more compatible. The irony is that The Bachelor was on the other side of that coin last year.

Spot said...

I was that one person! Glad I didn't go against the grain this time. :)

Spot said...

Kuddos to you ;)

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