Monday, January 13, 2014

The Question, Monday 1/13/14: Is The Blacklist a B-Lister Without The Voice?


Just like in fall 2012, the biggest new series of fall 2013 was the series NBC put after The Voice on Monday - this time James Spader drama The Blacklist. But just lumping it in with last year's Revolution is likely doing it a disservice. While The Voice faded in the second half of the season, The Blacklist held tight, eventually beginning to build on the numbers Revolution was getting after a much stronger Voice. So confident is NBC ithat it gets a run of season one episodes without a Voice lead-in, something Revolution never had last year. It begins tonight in a timeslot which also sees the first regular episode of CBS' Intelligence. Is The Blacklist a B-lister without The Voice? That's The Question for Monday, January 13, 2014.

The Blacklist This Season
3.8 (premiere, 9/23/13, 5.6 Voice at 9:30)
3.14 (average, 4.51 average Voice at 9:30)
3.2 (finale, 12/2/13, 3.4 Voice at 9:30)

Expectations will probably be pretty high on the heels of Chicago Fire dropping less than 10% in its first Voice-less episode of the year. However, that show had established an audience with a smaller lead-in in season one, and its Tuesday Voice lead-in was several ticks lower than what The Blacklist had on Monday. (There's a special American Ninja Warrior leading in tonight.) Dropping by as little as ChiFi against two respectable competitors would be a huge win, but The Blacklist held so well over the course of the fall that a collapse like last year's Go On also seems unlikely.

Over/Under: 2.65.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

26 comments:

Spot said...

My instinct before seeing the line said 2.7. Sticking with that - over!

Spot said...

Over with a 2.7 or 2.8.

Spot said...

Under, but a still huge 2.5/2.6. I thought you were going for a spread type of question since there are two big things going on today at 10pm.

Spot said...

I agree with the B, it's the perfect grade. Hopefully it sees a post Olympics bounce. Not airing in the summer should also help the year to year comparisons this spring!

Spot said...

I dunno, given that there are only like 4 dramas that haven't fallen below a 2.5 this season, that still seems A-list to me. Despite not being a play on the title of the show.

Spot said...

Tough line... I was divided between 2.6 and 2.7. Anyway, I'll say Over.

Please let me have some luck this time around, Uncle Nielsen!

Spot said...

Viewers clearly love the show and I don't think the lead in matters all too much here. If anything, Intelligence may dent it more than the lack of The Voice.

OVER. 2.9.

Spot said...

[UNDER]

It's so hard being able to see what other users put, because I always feel like I want to copy off of Billie Dawn or War Is The H-Word's papers... With that said, for better or worse I'll never break away from the pack if I follow them constantly, so I'll risk it and go UNDER

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over.
With 50.01% confidence only, because I thought 2.6 or 2.7, and hoped for any line but this one.
Yes, unlike Revolution, The Blacklist doesn't strictly follow The Voice ups and downs. Amazingly consistent ratings, 3rd to 9th (penultimate) episode all got between 2.9 and 3.1. And even spiked to 3.2 in the last episode - which is great, but explainable: it was Part 2 of s two-parter fall finale, Castle didn't air that night, and it went against 1.1 Hostages (Intelligence should do some 0.5 better tonight).

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Hope CBS does well, January is usually the best month for its Monday comedies and CBS has just had two hugely rated games over the weekend to promote its shows!


I don't play The Question because I always forget to, but in this case I'd say TB goes slightly over with 2.7

Spot said...

The League Average is already at a 1.9, ouch.

Spot said...

Over. The show has been more consistent than Revolution if my memories are correct, and I've seen promotions EVERYWHERE! On NBC, on different sites I go to, before Youtube videos, so I'm certain people know it's airing tonight. And of course, the whole "Where is Red, and what he's doing?" cliffhanger. So, this all screams to me around a 2.7-2.8. Or I'm just being optimistic over a show I like. Just have to wait till' 11 AM.

Spot said...

Over from me. The Blacklist held a very steady 3.0 throughout a (2 month-ish) period where The Voice fell from 4.5 to a 3.3, which I think shows TB has a distinct separate audience from The Voice. I don't expect Intelligence to be a significant factor in TBs ratings and I would go so far as to guess a 2.8/2.9 rating.

Spot said...

I'll say Over at 2.7.

Spot said...

Yeah since seeing the last couple of leaderboards Spot has put up, I have felt influenced by knowing what the regulars have guessed (or at least thats what I will falsely blame my recent bad run on), although I try to post before reading the comments.



I wouldn't worry to much about looking at what those of us towards the top have said recently as we have had sub-par results since the transition from premiere month to winter (I know I'm still coasting on my near perfect premiere week scores, and am below 50% since winter kicked in). I'm pretty sure the chasing pack should be catching up.

Spot said...

Haha. With more and more media focus on TV ratings as time goes on, I wonder if people in the TV industry will conciously try to choose names for shows that aren't easy to base a negative pun around.

Spot said...

Over. The Blacklist is not that dependent on The Voice. Even Revolution only dropped 10% on its first non-Voice outing.

Spot said...

I'm anticipating about a 20-25% drop, which will be enough for under.

That said, I'm figuring it'll stabilize from there for the rest of the January run.

Spot said...

Explaining my process tonight is too complicated, so I'll just say under and leave it at that.

Spot said...

Over. A 2.7 will finally convince NBC that this show can be the Thursday 9PM tentpole next season. =)

Spot said...

This is an instance where the True metric helps a lot. It's gotten about a 2.8 in True.


A 2.7 would be a 15% drop. I think that's a reasonable expectation for a show that's held up this well thus far. OVER

Spot said...

ABC's 10 PM dramas being historically unpopular
CBS comedies leveling out
NBC Wednesdays and Thursdays stinking up the joint
FOX seeing X-Factor and Tuesday comedies implode


Everyone has a piece of the inaction.

Spot said...

That clearly didn't happen at NBC with Crisis, the jokes for which write themselves (see also: Do No Harm).

Spot said...

If in doubt with NBC, go under.

I'm in doubt. Under.

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