Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Monday 1/27/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Eight days after its NFC Championship preview, over half of the audience forgot about The Following. It hit a disastrous 2.0 rating and barely cracked six million viewers in its Monday premiere, already at series low levels against what should've been fairly favorable competition. It will get a better lead-in than a premiere encore (1.1) going forward, but if it can't at least hold this as the competition gets stiffer, it's now not that hard to see two seasons and out for the top new show of the 2012-13 regular season.
  • But other than that result, it was a pretty positive day for broadcast, with the star being CBS' triumphant 200th episode of How I Met Your Mother (3.8). That's a season high for that show, and it boosted the rest of the lineup to season highs or very close: 2 Broke Girls (3.0), Mike and Molly (2.6), Mom (2.4), and even Intelligence (1.5), which also probably benefited somewhat from Castle being in repeats.
  • ABC and NBC shared in the good news as The Bachelor (2.5) and the last Voice-less episode of The Blacklist (2.5) each swung back up by a couple ticks.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Bachelor 2.5 37% +9%+0.2n/a 2/4 +0% +9% +0% 2.3
Castle (R) 1.4 26% -30% +0% 1.4
ABC:-3%+0%
How I Met Your Mother 3.8 45% +23%+0.7n/a 1/15 n/a +23% +138% 3.2
2 Broke Girls 3.0 38% +11%+0.3+0.7 1/15 n/a +11% +25% 2.3
Mike and Molly 2.6 31% +24%+0.5+0.3 1/10 n/a +24% +30% 2.2
Mom 2.4 32% +26%+0.5+0.5 2/15 n/a +26% +33% 2.1
Intelligence 1.5 28% +36%+0.4+0.5 2/4 n/a +36% +25% 1.4
CBS:+23%+45%
Hollywood Game Night 1.5 35% +0%+0.0n/a 1/4 n/a +15% -35% 1.4
Hollywood Game Night 1.3 36% -13%-0.2n/a 3/5 n/a -13% -41% 1.3
The Blacklist 2.5 31% +9%+0.2-0.2 11/13 n/a +9% +100% 2.6
NBC:+4%-8%
The Following (R) 1.1 35% -50% -58% 1.0
The Following 2.0 42% -55%-2.4-10.2 2/2 -39% -17% -39% 2.1
Fox:-33%-48%
Hart of Dixie 0.4 44% +0%+0.0n/a 2/11 -20% +0% -20% 0.4
Beauty and the Beast 0.3 46% +0%+0.0+0.0 1/11 -57% +0% -14% 0.3
CW:+0%-18%
Big5:-3%-10%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

19 comments:

Spot said...

I figured there was trouble brewing when #JoeCarrollLives didn't trend on Twitter last night. I just wish my ***REDACTED*** luck on The Question would break already.

Spot said...

I said I would be shocked if it went below your line... I am shocked. Even though I predicted a 2.0 or about for the show's overall Season 2 average in the best case/worst case, I got more optimistic after the football preview and in any case I never imagined it hitting these numbers until much later against stiffer competition. Damn... I love the show, despite all the hate it gets.

Spot said...

I guess weak numbers for The Following is a good thing for Almost Human?


Great for HIMYM, the 200th episode was very touching.

Spot said...

What is weird is last week NBC went 1.3, 1.5, 2.3 by the hours. This week it went 1.5, 1.3, 2.5 by the hours. For some odd reason HGN went down with less competition and The Blacklist went up.

Spot said...

The Following series low despite no The Voice, and with NFC Championship game exposure. I expected at least 2.5, and then this ... this 2.0 is not disappointing but straight out awful.

Spot said...

I agree about Almost Human. Sleepy Hollow finishing soft, Rake bombing and The Following coming back way weaker than it left are all good news for Almost Human. If it can hold that 1.8 or so against the competition it has coming I don't see how FOX cans it.

Spot said...

Well...I don't feel so bad about forgetting to do last night's Question, because there was no way I was guessing that low.

Spot said...

I wonder if "limited series" hits Sleepy Hollow and Under the Dome will meet similar fates when they have 2nd season premieres...

Spot said...

Fun fact, the 100th episode of HIMYM got a 3.9 rating.

Spot said...

Well, let's not get ahead of ourselves. This awful 2.0 by Following is still above Almost Human Monday's average of 1.87. So unless The Following completely collapses, 2014-15 Mondays should still be: in fall Hyeroglyph / Sleepy Hollow, and in midseason Gotham / The Following.
Almost Human maybe summer 2015, maybe spring, and maybe cancelled. Fox really doesn't need it in regular season with Glee, Bones + already ordering to series 2 more dramas (Gracepoint, Backstrom) and 2 reality shows (Utopia, Dream Date).

Spot said...

This result does at least remove one of the very few certainties we had about FOX weeknights - namely, that the SH/Following tag team would be back in the Monday 9/8c hour next season. That's no longer a given.

There are an awful lot of combinations FOX can go with next season (especially as we don't even know the amount of space Utopia will take up). An increasing number of those include Almost Human.

Spot said...

Well, I see no combination including Almost Human. That is unless The Following completely collapses, which I find hard to believe. I wrote above about Mondays. Tuesday is 2 blocks of comedies, Friday is Bones + MasterChef Junior. Wed & Thu is some combination of Utopia / Dream Date / Glee / Gracepoint in the fall, and in midseason is 3 hours of Idol (or 2 hours + 1 hour of Utopia) and Backstrom at Thu 9 PM. Fox is actually only network which is easy to read already now, they kinda opened their cards with their new direct-to-series model.

Spot said...

Well, are you expecting a heavily-serialized, critically-savaged love-it-or-hate-it show like The Following to grow? Almost Human is a police procedural with some serial arcs, much like Person of Interest, and FOX is about to lose its only other procedural in Bones either this year or next. Also, it had an unusual November launch which seemed to catch people by surprise. AH and SH have been scheduled somewhat oddly.


I know that the network is really into changing the way shows air, with them ordering more show for fewer episodes, but a procedural would allow them some stability. Glee's ratings have been a joke this season, save the memorial.

Spot said...

REALLY, The Following? Beyond shocked right now.

Spot said...

Are the 18-34 ratings available anywhere nowadays? I remember TVBTN posting them along with the 18-49 ratings for each show, but those disappeared after the spring 2011 I believe. And I'm really curious to see what shows like HIMYM, Modern Fam, AI, TBBT, NCIS pull in the 18-34.

Spot said...

HIMYM should have every episode feature The Mother from now on. It wouldn't fall below 3.5 I would bet. I'm not surprised that the 8 PM HGN rated higher, because every ad I've seen in the past said that was the time.

Spot said...

For the last 2-3 months they've usually been posted in the finals updates at TV Media Insights. I've been keeping them on my sheet since that started, so I might add them to the Vault at some point.


This HIMYM got a 3.7 (most eps this season have been high 2's). For some comparisons: this year's American Idol premiere got a 3.7. Big Bang usually gets in that range as well. Modern Family is usually in the mid-2's, NCIS usually in the high-1's.

Spot said...

Wonder what Mindy gets. Guessing just shy of NCIS.

Spot said...

Here's how - Bones moved back to Monday in March, with AH airing against the Olympics before ending on 13 episodes. It's a procedural, so it could've had a back order; certainly looks like FOX don't want to renew this one.

I think this opens up a Glee S6 Friday burnoff. FOX must be having buyer's remorse on that 44-episode order, and - like ABC ordering Lucky 7, like CBS ordering We Are Men - *we all knew it before it happened!*

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