Spotted Ratings, Monday 3/31/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• The one-hour finale of How I Met Your Mother (5.4) posted a massive 54% week-to-week increase, setting a new series high in the demo, in total viewers (12.94 million) and in adults 18-34 (5.8). It's the biggest regularly-scheduled entertainment episode this season for a series not named The Big Bang Theory or The Walking Dead, and after the finals uptick it inched ahead of Breaking Bad's finale from late September. But it's likely to be CBS' last Monday moment of glory this season, as newbie Friends with Better Lives (2.6) adjusted down to lose over half of that lead-in demo rating in its 9/8c preview. This probably does not bode well for its 8:30 launch after 2 Broke Girls in two weeks. But Mom (2.2) at 9:30 and the last episode of Intelligence (1.2) did benefit a bit from this halo.

• CBS' big bounce had surprisingly little impact on the competition; The Voice (3.4) was the only show that seemed to suffer at all, and even it was down less than 10%. The CW's Star-Crossed (0.4) and The Tomorrow People (0.5!) were even on the upswing.

Spotted Ratings, Monday 3/24/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• The penultimate episode of How I Met Your Mother (3.5) spiked by over a half point week-to-week and is now up by 0.8 from its low against The Bachelor's finale two weeks ago. It may grade out as one of the show's most impressive performances of the season given all the competition and that we're post-Daylight Saving. This helped the rest of the CBS comedy lineup, but only by a little bit; 2 Broke Girls (2.3) and Mom (1.9) were up a tick, and Mike and Molly (2.0) was up two.

• ABC's Dancing with the Stars (2.3) was down by 12% in week two, but since it's now being compared against more apples-to-apples episodes, the year-to-year gap closed to just -4% vs. the second spring 2013 episode. And this may be a show that can benefit depending on what happens with CBS after HIMYM is gone.

• NBC had a down The Voice (3.7) and an up The Blacklist (2.8), though those changes were lessened a bit after finals adjustments.

• And if it wasn't already over, the final death blow may have been dealt to CDub's The Tomorrow People (0.3). After a decent hold in its Monday premiere, it was down a notch in its second Monday episode. 

• Cable: the finales of Teen Wolf, Switched at Birth and The Fosters were all up about 10%. Teen Wolf was also on the upside vs. last winter's finale, though Switched and Fosters were way down. And Bates Motel finally stopped the bleeding with a week four bounce-back.

Spotted Ratings, Monday 2/17/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• Like last Monday, this Olympic Monday was heavy on originals elsewhere, and shows that also aired last week were barely up (that pesky Almost Human (1.7)) to even (The Following (1.7)) to barely down (The Bachelor (2.2) and Intelligence (1.2)). ABC opted to tack on an original Castle (1.7), which matched the season low set against another big sporting event (the college football championship game on January 6).

• And the CW curiously tried the series premiere of Star-Crossed on this night. It didn't really register, averaging 1.28 million viewers and a 0.4 demo (very nearly adjusting up to 0.5; it was a 0.45 when taken to the hundredth). This is the typical Hart of Dixie rating, though a tick better than what Hart did opposite the Games last week. Because of the atypical competition, it might have some hope of maintaining this in future weeks, but even that would probably not be enough for a long-term future.

Spotted Ratings, Monday 2/10/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• As a programming note, I'll be waiting for finals in the late afternoon to do most of the daily posts over the next couple weeks. But I'm doing the quick noon hit today since there was an uncommonly high volume of noteworthy original entertainment programming.

• Each of those original entertainment programs took a double digit week-to-week hit on the first Olympic Monday. This was of most interest for Fox, where The Following (1.7) was down another two ticks and Almost Human was down 16% (benefiting from a finals uptick). The scheduling suggests Fox is getting rid of Almost Human, and this may be its first performance in awhile that would make that decision look at least somewhat sensible... though, again, it's not as bad after the finals help.

• The Bachelor (2.3) and CBS' Intelligence (1.3) took low-teens hits. That might be considered another minor win for the latter since its comedy block lead-in also went into repeats, but it was so low to begin with that it really doesn't matter at this point.

• The first Olympic Monday (see chart) was 8% below the corresponding night in 2010, which is close to the average across the first four apples-to-apples nights.

Spotted Ratings, Monday 2/3/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• With so many networks waiting till after the Olympics for their big midseason launches, this was not one of the more exciting Super Mondays in recent memory. The only show on this night that got much promotion during Sunday's big game was The Following (1.9), and it only added to last week's disappointment by dropping another tenth (even with a better lead-in from Almost Human (1.9)).

• How I Met Your Mother (3.8) saw a truly bizarre adjustment in finals, up a whooping half point to tie last week's 200th episode. With that in mind, the rest of the lineup (2 Broke Girls (3.0), Mike and Molly (2.6), Mom (2.3) and Intelligence (1.5)) holding doesn't look quite so impressive, but it was still another good night for the network in general. They may have benefited to some degree from NBC flopping from 9-11 with a Sports Illustrated Swimsuit special (0.9).

• ABC's Castle (2.1) also capitalized on NBC resting The Blacklist, growing for a third straight episode.

Spotted Ratings, Monday 1/27/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• Eight days after its NFC Championship preview, over half of the audience forgot about The Following. It hit a disastrous 2.0 rating and barely cracked six million viewers in its Monday premiere, already at series low levels against what should've been fairly favorable competition. It will get a better lead-in than a premiere encore (1.1) going forward, but if it can't at least hold this as the competition gets stiffer, it's now not that hard to see two seasons and out for the top new show of the 2012-13 regular season.

• But other than that result, it was a pretty positive day for broadcast, with the star being CBS' triumphant 200th episode of How I Met Your Mother (3.8). That's a season high for that show, and it boosted the rest of the lineup to season highs or very close: 2 Broke Girls (3.0), Mike and Molly (2.6), Mom (2.4), and even Intelligence (1.5), which also probably benefited somewhat from Castle being in repeats.

• ABC and NBC shared in the good news as The Bachelor (2.5) and the last Voice-less episode of The Blacklist (2.5) each swung back up by a couple ticks.

First Two Weeks, Early January Premieres

Not really feeling like going through the full First Two Weeks motions for all these shows since most are so clear-cut, so I'm just gonna hit the bunch all at once with some quick thoughts.

Spotted Ratings, Monday 1/13/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• Apparently Tuesday's Intelligence rating was artificial. The show dropped by half to a disastrous 1.2 demo rating in its first airing in the new timeslot, not any better than what Hostages was doing for most of the fall. And just like that, it's done for. With incompatible comedies airing in the first two hours and two legitimate competitors, CBS may now have to move some kind of veteran show into this hour looking forward to next season.

• NBC began its January run of The Blacklist at a little over 20% behind the show's fall finale rating after The Voice. We can debate how it performed relative to expectations, but either way it's still not an insignificant accomplishment for NBC to have a 10/9c drama that can hit this rating with an average lead-in. (That average lead-in was a special American Ninja Warrior (1.9).)

• The biggest surprise to the positive was Fox's Almost Human, up by multiple tenths for the second straight week. If this show was on the brink of death coming into 2014, it shouldn't be anymore. And Sleepy Hollow was even in its first episode in over a month.

• On ABC, it was a case of "Where was this number when I picked it last week?" as The Bachelor took a large post-premiere drop against a lot more broadcast competition. A week after major year-to-year growth for the premiere, this point was down two tenths vs. 2013's second episode. However, Castle was up at 10/9c, perhaps demonstrating that last week's football game affected it a lot more than it affected The Bachelor.

• The CBS comedies How I Met Your Mother (3.0), 2 Broke Girls (2.7), Mike and Molly (2.4) and Mom (2.1) all came back at relatively normal levels, bouncing back from weak showings to end 2013.

SpotVault - Intelligence (CBS) - 2013-14 Ratings

Intelligence

Tuesdays, 9/8c, CBS

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 1/7/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• It ain't easy to skew older than an NCIS, but CBS' premiere of Intelligence (2.4) pulled it off, hanging a typical NCIS: Los Angeles demo rating but with a million or two more total viewers (16.59m). Not great, not horrible, and not really telling either way about the show's prospects on Monday.

• As for the night's other series premiere, ABC's Killer Women (0.9) was predictably killed by the wretched timeslot situation. I thought it might be a little less disastrous because it seemed like something that could tap into the Dancing with the Stars/Castle crowd, and the skew somewhat suggests that (it grew slightly from Trophy Wife in total viewers), but unfortunately a lot of those people probably had no idea this show existed.

• The big four were all original all the time, and here are a few other quick notes:
• ABC's Agents of SHIELD adjusted up to a tick above the very mediocre number it took into hiatus.
• Fox hit a new low with increasingly troubling New Girl, which lost head-to-head to The Goldbergs for the first time since October 1 and didn't really even look all that different from the other Fox comedies. It'll be a more favorable story for New Girl in 18-34 numbers, as always, but this isn't a good result... especially since The Voice isn't even around as competition anymore.
• NBC's The Biggest Loser and Chicago Fire were both a bit lower than when they aired alongside The Voice in the fall, but not disappointingly so.

The Question, Tuesday 1/7/14: Is a Tuesday Preview for Intelligence an Intelligent Idea?

CBS tried something very different in the Monday 10/9c hour in the fall, and Hostages didn't work. Now, they'll go for something more familiar with the slick procedural Intelligence. Since it's not that compatible with the comedy block, CBS is starting it out with a whirl after NCIS tonight. If this show's going to work, it should be able to ride its NFL playoff promotion to NCIS: Los Angeles-esque numbers. The slot is actually easier than what LA faced during the fall, as The Voice is gone in favor of The Biggest Loser, plus ABC and Fox have their usual modest comedy blocks.

Over/Under: 2.45.

Winter 2014 Best Case/Worst Case, Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday

The new year means many new premieres, which also means the return of Best Case/Worst Case! This round covers only the premieres before the end of the Winter Olympics on February 24. Here are the Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday premieres, and Thursday/Friday were covered last week.

If you're new to Best Case/Worst Case, here's what all the numbers mean.