Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 5/7/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• A week after the last two hours of ABC's Wednesday block fell apart, there was no rally for Mixology (1.3) and Nashville (1.2) on this night, and only a tiny one for Modern Family (2.9). And this time, the 8/7c hour joined in the late spring struggle, as The Middle (1.6) and Suburgatory (1.3) were still at new lows after adjusting up in finals!

• Things were also pretty brutal on NBC; Revolution (1.1) hit a new low, while Chicago PD (1.4) was tied for a low. And on Fox, American Idol (1.8) hit a new Wednesday low even with its finals uptick.

• Only CBS had some relief, with Survivor (2.4), Criminal Minds (2.3) and CSI (1.9) all posting small week-to-week upticks.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 4/30/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• It was the first Wednesday in a good while with every network fully in originals, and several networks seemed to suffer. It was worst on ABC, where Suburgatory (1.5), Modern Family (2.8), Mixology (1.3) and Nashville (1.2) all experienced double-digit drops. Modern and Nashville were particularly weak, each down 20% to outright season lows. This puts a screeching halt to Modern's minor momentum of late, and ABC will desperately hope it's just a blip night.

• After adjustments, American Idol (1.9), Survivor (2.3) and Criminal Minds (2.2) all avoided outright season lows, but all tied for lows. CSI (1.7) adjusted down to dead even in a point bound to be scrutinized because it introduced the potential Patricia Arquette spin-off.

• NBC emerged largely unscathed. Revolution (1.3) was the only Portland pre-emption casualty, adjusting down to its usual number, and Chicago PD (1.9) seemingly benefited from another Dick Wolf universe cross-over (this time with Chicago Fire). And the CW's The 100 (0.6) held up in the face of all the drama competition returning.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 4/2/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• Week three of the CW's The 100 (0.6) was down another tenth. Considering last week's 0.7 very nearly rounded up to 0.8 (it was a 0.74), this will mark another double-digit week-to-week decline. It will be interesting to see where it falls on the wide 0.6 spectrum when more precise finals come out. In its defense, its lead-in Arrow (0.8) was also back down by a tick this week, but next week the show will have to air after an Arrow repeat.

• Two weeks after most of the crime dramas struggled, most of them were ahead of recent results this week; Criminal Minds (2.5), Law and Order: SVU (1.7) and Chicago PD (1.6) were all up multiple ticks.

• Another mixed night on ABC. Modern Family (3.3) gave back its recent increases, but Suburgatory (1.7) and Nashville (1.5) each zoomed up to the high end of recent results.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 3/26/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• Week two of the CW's The 100 (0.7) was down two tenths week-to-week as its lead-in Arrow (0.9) perked up by another tick. Not a great trend, but still a pretty good raw number. Stay tuned for week three.

• Only ABC aired original scripted programming out of all the other networks. The results were mixed, as Modern Family (3.6) adjusted up to its best number since November and it helped Mixology (1.6) also outrate the last couple episodes (though it adjusted down to behind the first couple). But bubble show Nashville (1.3) tied its low point, which seems particularly soft since both its broadcast competitors were in repeats. (Suburgatory tied its low in prelims but adjusted up in finals.)

• Once again, Survivor (2.3) > American Idol (2.2), though Survivor was down a bit this week while a finals uptick kept Idol even.

• Cable: the series finale of Psych (0.72) was up 37% week-to-week, though that still left it behind a couple episodes from early in the season.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 3/12/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• The first Wednesday after DST was actually pretty steady for most of the 8/7c occupants, but that may be because they picked up some pieces from American Idol's (2.4) latest double-digit drop. The show dropped behind Survivor (2.5) in the 8:00 hour as well as overall. (Also worth noting the week-to-week decline in PUT didn't appear as significant as the last couple days.)

• On ABC, the shows that appeared to overachieve last week each dropped back this week, though a big uptick in finals helped reduce Suburgatory's drop to just a tenth. But Mixology (1.5) still followed up its 100% week two hold by losing two tenths in week three. (Modern Family (3.4) retention is now at 44%.)

• And on CBS, Survivor (2.5) was up a notch even against DST (it also grew this week last year), while the crime dramas remained consistently inconsistent; Criminal Minds (2.3) was down noticeably and CSI (2.0) was back up noticeably.

• Cable: lots of drops, but it was most brutal for The Americans (0.39). I thought there was no way this show would maintain the same 40%+ year-to-year slippage from premiere night, but here we are... this was 41% behind week three of season one.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 3/5/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• A week after the Mixology premiere debacle and a terrible all-around Wednesday, ABC was in bounce-back mode. The Middle (1.9), Suburgatory (1.7), Modern Family (3.4) and Nashville (1.5) were all up multiple tenths. Even Mixology (1.7) pulled off the improbable, going dead even and becoming the season's first new show to break even in week two (excluding preview situations like About a Boy and The Originals). Though it's still an unacceptable number, it at least keeps it a bit ahead of the recent Super Fun Night results. So it remains on the schedule at least for now.

• NBC's Law and Order: SVU (1.6) and Chicago PD (1.5) duo crashed back to earth after last week's big crossover, perhaps also suffering from Criminal Minds (2.6) returning to the 9:00 hour.

• And the last hurrah for the Arrow (0.7) and The Tomorrow People (0.4) combo was shockingly weak, with each show posting a new series low. The CDub is gonna have to hope Arrow shows a bit better when The 100 premieres after it in a couple weeks. 

• Cable numbers are up! Week two of FX's The Americans (0.56) took a noticeable post-premiere drop, down 0.12 from last week's premiere. The year-to-year gap only narrowed a bit from premiere night; this point was still down over a third from week two of season one.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 2/26/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• As we said yesterday, no series premiere has ever really disappointed with the Modern Family lead-in. But then again, no series premiere had nearly as little going for it as Mixology, and that really showed as the show debuted to a paltry 4.98 million viewers and 1.7 demo rating. It's worth noting that the rejection might be a bit exaggerated because the show got very little help from Modern Family (3.1), which plummeted to a season low on this night. But the show has given itself no real cushion with this start; a typical post-premiere drop from Mixology would put it at/below Super Fun Night levels, and it could easily get uglier than that.

• The hours that surrounded ABC's 9/8c debacle were just as bad, though they switched roles after finals; it was The Middle (1.7) and Suburgatory (1.4) at new season lows, while Nashville (1.3) went up to merely tie its low.

• With CBS adding a second hour of Survivor at 9/8c, that meant no crime dramas to compete with Law and Order: SVU (2.0). As usual, that was a positive for that show. But the real eye-opener was the second half of a cross-over between SVU and Chicago PD (2.2), as the latter grew in the 10/9c hour and hit a series high even with the crime drama competition from Criminal Minds (2.3). Expect the Dick Wolf empire cross-overs to continue at full steam after this result.

• Fox's rough week continued as American Idol (2.7) only barely bounced back from last week's Wednesday episode against the Olympics. It widened the gap with the Survivor premiere somewhat after finals, as that show adjusted down perhaps due to basketball pre-emptions. But Survivor still had a good night, even with last spring's premiere, and it could easily start winning head-to-head fairly soon.

• On cable, FX's The Americans (0.68) returned for season two with no real sign of picking up any heat during the hiatus. However, the 45% drop year-to-year is (hopefully!) a bit exaggerated because the premiere last year was miles ahead of any other result.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 1/29/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• With the strongest shows on ABC and CBS going into repeats, NBC had another strong crime drama night with Law and Order: SVU (2.0) and week four of Chicago PD (1.7), each up again. But Revolution (1.3) gave back last week's increase in the 8/7c hour.

• Miscellaneous notes: 
• ABC's Suburgatory (1.5) was down three tenths with The Middle (1.5) going into repeats, and Nashville (1.5) ticked up for a second straight week despite a series low lead-in from Super Fun Night (1.3);
• Fox's American Idol (3.8) inched down again despite easier competition;
• The finals were kind to the CW. Both shows adjusted up, giving The Tomorrow People its first 0.7 since week three and Arrow (1.1) its first 1.0+ in the new year.
• And CBS' annual Super Bowl's Greatest Commercials special (1.9) went a tenth behind last year's rating.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 1/22/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• The second American Idol Wednesday (4.0) was down 15% from last week, a steeper drop than last season. (The year-to-year slippage vs. last year's second Wednesday: -27%.)

• Some rally on the other networks might have been predictable with Idol coming back a bit, but overall there were some big swings in both directions. ABC was up across the board, most notably with The Middle (2.3), the second week of Suburgatory (1.8), and Modern Family (3.4), as was NBC with Revolution (1.5), a spiking Law and Order: SVU (1.8) and a slightly up week three of Chicago PD (1.6).

• CBS hit series lows with Criminal Minds (2.2) and CSI (1.6), and while the CW is still having a somewhat soft start to the new year with Arrow, it did adjust up to 0.9 in finals.

SpotVault - Suburgatory (ABC) - 2013-14 Ratings

Suburgatory

Wednesdays, 8:30/7:30c, ABC

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 1/15/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• The thirteenth premiere of American Idol (4.7) was down 22% year-to-year in the demo (and continued to skew older, dropping only a little over 15% in overall viewership). But given the incredible severity of the show's bleed through last season (when it was in the 3.0 range by the end and had a 3.6 finale), this is not a bad start. In fact, no Idol premiere has increased this much (28%) vs. the prior season's finale. And if the judges were as well-received by the audience as they seemed to be by critics, it's certainly not hard to imagine the show holding up better through the season this time.

• Almost everything dropped week-to-week against Idol's return, but it was most severe on NBC, coming down from last week's inflated episodes against CBS pre-emptions. Chicago PD (1.5) was down 25% in week two, but that was predictable... and in fact a less severe drop than its lead-in Law and Order: SVU (1.4) took. And Revolution (1.3) hit a new low at 8/7c.

• On ABC, Suburgatory (1.6) had a modest start in its return to 8:30, barely outrating the last few episodes of Back in the Game/Super Fun Night, but that looks a little better relatively speaking since The Middle (1.8), Modern Family (3.2) and Nashville (1.3) all tied or hit new season lows.

Winter 2014 Best Case/Worst Case, Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday

The new year means many new premieres, which also means the return of Best Case/Worst Case! This round covers only the premieres before the end of the Winter Olympics on February 24. Here are the Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday premieres, and Thursday/Friday were covered last week.

If you're new to Best Case/Worst Case, here's what all the numbers mean.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 4/17/13

WHAT MATTERS:

•  With CBS, NBC and the CW mostly in repeats, most of the excitement was in ABC second-tier sitcom land. It started with the one-hour season finale of Suburgatory which was weaker in the lead-off role and without The Middle around, but not to a particularly surprising degree.

• And week three of newbie How to Live took a 20% dip in its first airing without an original Modern Family lead-in, but it tied the Modern repeat and got about the same numbers as late-season Suburgs was posting after originals. (It also tied the year-ago week three of Apartment 23, which led out of a 2.2 Modern repeat.) So this still looks pretty solid for now.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 4/3/13

WHAT MATTERS:

• It was a strong ABC comedy Wednesday across the board, but the biggest positive was the premiere of new sitcom How to Live 9:30, which managed to tie last year's Apartment 23 April premiere and vastly exceeded the recent Suburgatory level in the slot. After finals, Modern Family was exactly the same-sized lead-in as it was for The B last year. The show has given itself a great deal of cushion with this start.

• As for the rest of ABC, Modern Family's was up a rather drastic 31% from last week. While I thought its 3.2 return last week seemed "too low," the 4.2 at this time of year is probably a bit "too high," and I would expect it to eventually settle somewhere in the middle once How to Live declines. The Middle was also up at 8/7c, and Suburgatory made a sound transition back to the 8:30 slot, outrating most 2013 episodes of The Neighbors. Perhaps this is a Parks and Rec situation where the show just belongs at 8:30; if it can maintain this level, I wouldn't be surprised to see it stick in the hour next year. Nashville also swung back up given its best lead-in since November.

• Elsewhere, Criminal Minds and CSI settled back a bit after big jumps in their last episodes, and NBC's Law and Order: SVU and Chicago Fire downticked against the return of CBS competition. But NBC did see a noticeable improvement in the 8:00 hour from Dateline.

• And American Idol adjusted up in finals, so everything I said after prelims about the show dropping 50% from the premiere will have to wait. But it was still yet another new low, and there are only six weeks to go...!

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 3/27/13

WHAT MATTERS:

• Carnage. Just carnage. We'll start with another terrible performance from American Idol, down by yet another 11% week-to-week. Of course comparing a mid-season Idol number to a The Voice premiere week number isn't fair, but it was really no contest this week. Idol now finds itself down nearly half from its season premiere.

• Continue to ABC, where The Middle and Modern Family were both down double digits in their first airings in a month.  To be fair, these are the shows' first airings after DST, so some slippage was to be expected, but (particularly in Modern's case) this seems to go beyond that. The Neighbors barely benefited from surrounding originals on its season/series finale night, while Suburgatory looked more reasonable in likely its last Wednesday 9:30 airing. (It goes to 8:30 next week.) To round it off, Nashville downticked again from its already low pre-hiatus point.

• The only network that appeared mostly on the upswing was NBC, but most of that already insignificant growth was wiped out after finals. Only SVU was on the upswing.

• To round it out, the CW's Arrow also looked bad, though it did adjust up to merely tie a low. All told, let's hope this was just an outlier of a night in general.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 3/20/13

WHAT MATTERS:

• Two of the shows that held up best against the arrival of daylight saving last week took the drop this week instead. Though both adjusted up in finals, American Idol still hit another Wednesday low and Survivor was down a tick as well. After finals, the loser of the night was probably Whitney, which adjusted down to a new low after holding up well last week.

• CBS, NBC and the CW all returned in originals after taking the last two weeks off. It looks like the momentum has swung back to CBS in the drama duel with NBC, as Criminal Minds and CSI got their acts together after a couple weak showings in late February while LChicago Fire was on the downswing.

• Yet another week without original The Middle and Modern Family on ABC led to more low or low-tying numbers out of The Neighbors and Suburgatory.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 3/6/13

WHAT MATTERS:

• American Idol dropped for the fifth straight week, though a finals uptick prevented a fifth straight multiple-tick drop. (It was up from Tuesday's airing.) This came despite lots of repeat competition on the other three networks. It was down a third from the first post-sweeps Wednesday of last season.

• The True2 gap has been closing fast between The Neighbors and Suburgatory of late, and that showed this week when both aired after repeats and both scored a 1.7. The last time ABC aired them in this arrangement on January 30, Suburgs had a two-tenths edge, and Survivor wasn't even back yet. The True2 prelims think The Neighbors looked about a tenth stronger. The Neighbors didn't even drop from its last airing, though The Middle repeats so well that its lead-in drop-off wasn't as large as Suburgatory's.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 2/27/13

WHAT MATTERS:

• Odd final night of sweeps for CBS, where Survivor picked up some steam in week three but the crime dramas Criminal Minds and CSI had another really soft evening. Perhaps the competing NBC dramas are actually starting to wear away at this pair. Chicago Fire actually beat CSI for the first time despite the large lead-in disadvantage.

• It was also up and down on ABC, where The Middle and The Neighbors came back a bit after last week's surge, Suburgatory picked back up and Nashville hit another new low.

• American Idol was down multiple tenths for the fourth straight week and actually dropped behind Modern Family (they tied to one decimal, but Deadline numbers show Modern Family was very slightly ahead) for top broadcast program of the night.

• Cable notables:
• As you've probably already heard, it was another breakout evening for A&E's Duck Dynasty, which narrowly edged Modern Family and Idol. The show's rate of growth is pretty remarkable considering it was below a 2.0 for most of season two before spiking to a 3.0 for the season two finale. It's suddenly within a reasonable striking distance of the pinnacle rating for the original cable megahit Jersey Shore (4.7).

• USA also had some much-needed good news with a strong return from Psych (1.0), basically dead even with its last season premiere in fall 2011 and up significantly on the spring 2012 mid-season premiere. It doubled up the struggling dramas elsewhere in the slot: FX's The Americans (0.5) and TNT's Southland (0.4).  

• TNT tried a Southland-esque reality show in the 9:00 hour called Boston's Finest (1.21m, 0.4) and continued the network's recent slump. At least it edged the Monday Mornings premiere?

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 2/20/13

WHAT MATTERS:

• With their regular schedule back in place, CBS was able to exhale a bit as Survivor held steady in week two (and closed the year-to-year gap from -24% last week to -14% this week) and CSI got back to a closer-to-normal level. Arguably Criminal Minds, which dropped in finals to a season low despite a better lead-in, was the most disappointing entry on the net this week.

• ABC also had a sigh of relief as The Middle got back on track and Modern Family was up for the second straight week. And a pretty decent showing from The Neighbors may well beat Suburgatory in the True2 numbers this week.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 1/30/13

WHAT MATTERS:

• NBC Wednesday finally went original against American Idol, and it wasn't pretty. Whitney tied its low (excluding Thanksgiving Eve), Guys with Kids tied its low (INCLUDING Thanksgiving Eve) and once-surging Law and Order: SVU reverted to its typical level for most of the fall. Chicago Fire, the one that didn't face Idol, held up best against ABC/CBS repeats.

• Most of the usual Wednesday leaders sat out the last day before sweeps, so American Idol continued to hold on nicely. (It made it into negative single-digits territory year-to-year, though this was another of the dreaded two-hour vs. one-hour comparisons.) ABC mixed low-rated originals of The Neighbors and Suburgatory in with repeats of their anchor shows, while CBS was repeat in the last two hours but even year-to-year at 8/7c with their annual Super Bowl's Greatest Commercials special. The CW had a somewhat worrying drop from Arrow (0.9).

• Proving my ratings predictions are at their best when I use the "shot in the dark" approach, The Americans (3.22 million viewers and a 1.2) had a solid premiere for FX. They've done better in recent years (Justified (1.5) and American Horror Story (1.6)) but they've also done much, much worse (Lights Out (0.6) and Terriers (0.5)). This is definitely a very workable start.