Thursday, March 27, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 3/26/14

  • Week two of the CW's The 100 (0.7) was down two tenths week-to-week as its lead-in Arrow (0.9) perked up by another tick. Not a great trend, but still a pretty good raw number. Stay tuned for week three.
  • Only ABC aired original scripted programming out of all the other networks. The results were mixed, as Modern Family (3.6) adjusted up to its best number since November and it helped Mixology (1.6) also outrate the last couple episodes (though it adjusted down to behind the first couple). But bubble show Nashville (1.3) tied its low point, which seems particularly soft since both its broadcast competitors were in repeats. (Suburgatory tied its low in prelims but adjusted up in finals.)
  • Once again, Survivor (2.3) > American Idol (2.2), though Survivor was down a bit this week while a finals uptick kept Idol even.
  • Cable: the series finale of Psych (0.72) was up 37% week-to-week, though that still left it behind a couple episodes from early in the season.


A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Middle 1.9 33% -5%-0.1n/a 13/17 +6% +36% +6% 2.1
Suburgatory 1.5 36% -6%-0.1-0.1 6/8 -21% +25% +0% 1.6
Modern Family 3.6 45% +6%+0.2-0.1 7/17 +13% +100% +13% 4.0
Mixology 1.6 42% +33%+0.4+1.8 3/5 n/a +33% -16% 1.3
Nashville 1.3 32% -7%-0.1+0.1 15/18 -13% +100% -16% 1.6
Survivor 2.3 30% -8%-0.2n/a 5/5 -8% -8% -6% 2.5
Criminal Minds (R) 1.4 25% -38% +17% 1.5
CSI (R) 1.2 21% -38% -8% 1.5
Prince Harry's South Pole Heroes 0.8 27% n/a -36% -20% 0.9
Law and Order: SVU (R) 0.9 33% -42% -47% 1.2
Chicago PD (R) 0.9 30% -36% -47% 1.2
American Idol Wed 2.2 30% +0%+0.0n/a 11/12 -31% -1% -32% 2.4
Arrow 0.9 44% +13%+0.1n/a 9/17 +0% +6% +6% 1.0
The 100 0.7 39% -22%-0.2+0.1 2/2 n/a -22% -30% 0.7
Duck Dynasty 2.50 53% +0%+0.00
18/23 -32%

Psych 0.72 47% +37%+0.19
3/12 n/a

Workaholics 0.71 83% -5%-0.04
10/10 -3%

Melissa and Joey 0.52 66% +40%+0.15
5/10 +19%

Baby Daddy 0.48 67% +37%+0.13
4/10 +6%

The Americans 0.42 39% -12%-0.06
4/5 -16%

Hot In Cleveland 0.33 31% n/an/a
1/1 -15%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.


Spot said...

Mixology is still dead, though, right? It's 18-34 demo isn't otherworldly, is it?

Spot said...

The 100 total viewership is around 17% down.
If it is same amount in A18-49, it should be around 0.74, so maybe even adjusted up to 0.8 in finals. To delight of fans, but not important at all. Execs look at 2 decimal places ratings, 0.7 / 0.8 gives too rough picture, while 0.746 / 0.754 would be unnecesary fine.

If it is really around 0.75, that's the worst case. I mean, it would mean sure renewal, but all predictions about if it is 22 episodes for fall, or 13 episodes for the midseason would be deferred.

Chris' idea to premiere Season 2 of The 100 again in midseason is very good, because that gives CW most flexibility. I would allow them to sample 3 new shows already in fall, and they would be able to gauge if Reign holds well, or it would have sophomore slump. And pairing would be easier, four W18-34 skewing shows (TVD, Reign, Originals and SPN: Bloodlines) would be paired on Thu and Tue, with four A18-49 demo shows (Flash, Supernatural, Arrow + Messengers-or-iZombie) on Mon and Wed.

But if The 100 would hold great, to hell with the flexibility. CW would either premiere only 2 new shows in the fall, either Reign would be pushed to Friday (family show Hart of Dixie is not really compatible with quite explicit Reign, but at least both are female skewing, so not the worst thing in the world). Yes, they would have 2 unproven quantities on the bench, instead of 1 such + 2 proven (WLIIA, The 100), but for all they know, if The 100 can hold onto 0.8s and 0.9s in the spring, it could do over 1.0 in the fall. Which probably would be too risky for them to miss on.

Spot said...

Might come down to scheduling for Fisher. It's basically a dramedy, so it probably works well as a lead-in for a procedural or something? Instinctively, I think I renew it if and only if there's a scheduling fit.

Spot said...

Modern Family has it's best number since November 2013 and its best written episode since March 2012. The Middle was also at the top of its game last night.
I'm surprised NBC and CBS chose to repeat SVU/CPD and CM/CSI at the same time, when they clearly have an overlapping audience

Spot said...

The 100 indeed 0.74 in finals. That's 18% drop from premiere, but more positive than 0.70 (22%) or 0.66 (27%) would be. Renew. Defer on the count if it will be in the fall schedule.

Heat at Pacers 1.39 A18-49. Nice number for NBA regular season game. That matchup scored around 1.2 in December.
Last month Heat at Thunder was 1.67. In January, Thunder at Heat scored even better 1.86 A18-49.
No doubt which teams Stern would like too see in finals. Unfortunately, he's such a gentlemen, so it wouldn't even cross his mind to instruct refs which teams they need to help.

I don't know M18-34 NBA numbers, but adding 50% on those A18-49 wouldn't be much off.

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