Monday, March 10, 2014

The Question, Monday 3/10/14: Do You Believe NBC Adds Another Strong Drama?


Tonight, NBC will preview Sunday-bound drama Believe after The Voice. Its Sunday 9/8c slot is looking tougher and tougher after Resurrection's huge debut, so hanging a number tonight is crucial. I'm not a buyer on this show's promos, but they may be able to get a premiere with little drama competition to roughly the same numbers as last week's The Blacklist. I might go a bit higher, but The Bachelor's finale night seems likely to siphon a few demo viewers off of Voice's usually strong blind auditions audience.

Over/Under: 2.65.

29 comments:

Spot said...

Right before I came to the page I said to myself, "If the Line is 2.65 I don't know what side to fall on."

Given that The Bachelor has seen its After the Final Rose ceremony pull season-high numbers three years running, it's definitely a given that it's stronger competition than Castle would be. Even with the backlash this Bachelor seems to have (anti-gay statements that were walked back as "mistranslations," The Women Tell All special was allegedly bashing him), I can see the show getting a 3.x and limiting Believe's ceiling. Those facts, a "need" to even out my over-under stats, and flipping this quarter at my desk lead me to my guess.

Under.

Spot said...

Under. Smash, Revolution, and The Blacklist all had promotional campaigns that made it clear what they were about. It is very off brand from Castle and Intelligence, and could easily counterprogram them. By itself, I doubt it has a lot of Bachelor crossover, but I feel like a lot of the W18-34 are going to be leaving the Voice for the ATR special.
Under.

Spot said...

Over. Don't know why, but over.

Spot said...

Everybody shouldn't underestimate this show. I watched the pilot and it's pretty good. But It will have a tough time on Sunday.

But I'm gonna go ahead and pick 3.1. Over.

Spot said...

I'll say Over, as there is the Voice lead-in, but it'll probably tank on Sunday. Shame, since this is my most anticipated midseason show.

Spot said...

Very tough line. I will go under

Spot said...

It is very poised to pull an Intelligence. It is going from the best slot for a new drama to one of the worst.

Spot said...

Did people come away from Resurrection feeling sufficiently impressed that they're not going to give Believe the time of day because they have that slot locked down? I'm pretty sure this shares more of an audience with that than it does with TWD.

Resurrection actually ticked *up* in the second half-hour, so I'm taking that as a "yes," and taking this as my seventh (!) consecutive UNDER.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Under
I'm really not sure about it... but I think under covers more bases. First, The Bachelor season finale hurting The Voice not only couple of ticks, but 10+%, thus weakening lead-in to 4- ratings. And second scenario would be: people simply not liking Believe, and largely tuning out in 2nd half-hour.

Spot said...

I'm thinking a 2.4 tonight. UNDER.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Under, but barely. I expect a big drop in half hours, though. I think NBC is running, what else, a special Voice edition next Sunday to lead into Believe. It's just an okay show with a cute little kid possessing amazing powers but doesn't feel the slightest bit original or even a tiny bit provocative. The pilot looks good with Cuaron at the helm but I do not Believe looks alone is enough to salvage this show for another season. JJ Abrams involvement in television does not guarantee success.

Spot said...

Series premieres out of The Voice have tended to have good luck, and Alfonso Cuaron won't hurt. Over

Spot said...

and why it grew at 9:30 to 10 pm? (3.7 half hour) :D

Spot said...

That's okay. We'll give you the toaster as a consolation prize, anyway -:)

Spot said...

NBC has never had a SCRIPTED show that premiered after The Voice debut below a 2.5(Unless you count the rerun of About a Boy's pilot). Also, NBC has been promoting the heck out of it the last 3 weeks so OVER for me.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Abrams + Cuaron + Voice = Probable ratings gold. Also, I don't feel like underestimating mystical mumbo jumbo's ability to launch after last night. Over.

Spot said...

By the way, @Spot,


I have a totally unrelated question but I didn't know where to ask and I figure you will eventually look here to see our guesses. Where do you obtain the half-hour final ratings you always use to calculate the final TRUEs and where do you get Saturday final ratings? I never seem to be able to get any of those things.


Thanks!

Spot said...

1600 Penn

Spot said...

Dang.... Totally forgot about that show. Still going with over.

Spot said...

Under. A 2.6.

Spot said...

I'll say Under at a 2.5, simply because I'm expecting a bit of a drop from TV.

Spot said...

The Voice will undoubtedly play a part, but how much will Abrams and Cuaron? I know some showrunners and directors have some name recognition, but do people really choose their shows by that?

Spot said...

All I can say is it's a private source. Sorry!

Spot said...

Sunday 9 PM either had unusually high HUT (considering there was no big sports or special event), either there was was heavy DVRing. I mean, Live+SD :

The Walking Dead (AMC) 6.30
Resurrection (ABC) 3.83
Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey (FOX) 2.08
True Detective (HBO) 1.57
The Good Wife (CBS) 1.28
Keeping Up with the Kardashians (E!) 1.24
Shameless (Showtime) 0.85
Ax Men (History) 0.82
Bar Rescue (Spike TV) 0.74
Chopped (Food) 0.62
Blood, Sweat & Heels (Bravo) 0.57
Long Island Medium (TLC) 0.52

Those are top 12 originals, and there was also The Voice repeat at 1.1.

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