Thursday, March 27, 2014

The Question, Thursday 3/27/14: Can Surviving Jack Survive on Thursday?


Starting tonight, Fox will shrink its 9/8c American Idol results show to 30 minutes and premiere the new comedy Surviving Jack afterwards. The competition should be favorable tonight with CBS' comedy block sitting out for basketball. The problem is that American Idol won't be of that much help at this point; it had a 2.0 in the hour last week and would be lucky to go any higher than that tonight. Jack should manage better retention than the last post-Idol premiere Rake, since it's only giving viewers 30 minutes to tune out. But Idol was substantially bigger at that time (3.4), so Surviving Jack matching the 1.7 Rake number would be a win.

Surviving Jack Over/Under: 1.45.

21 comments:

Spot said...

No comedy from either NBC or ABC tonight, I can't see why I shouldn't be able to get a decent sampling. Over.
I can't remember the last comedy to regularly air out of Idol. I Hate My Teenage Daughter had a similar 6 episode deal with X Factor, but that actually was doing better than Idol at this point.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Eh, it'll get sampled, 75% retention out of a 2.0 is doable, Over.

Spot said...

I'm going to say barely over at 1.5.

Spot said...

I'm very favorable of the quality of tonight's pilot episode ( http://www.tvmediainsights.com/?p=43469 ) and I'm hoping a good amount of those SVU fans check out Meloni, who's terrific in this father role. I enjoy "Mom" but based on only pilot episodes, "Surviving Jack" was my new favorite comedy of the season. Every single March entry has gone "over," so I'll predict the Over here as well. I guess a 1.6.

Spot said...

Under at 1.3

Spot said...

slightly under with a 1.4

Spot said...

Over at 1.5

Spot said...

Under
Rake did 1.7 out of 3.4 Idol. Funny, it looked (and was) awful, but with all current Fox woes 1.7 for Surviving Jack premiere would look great.
Of course, with Idol at around 2.0, there's no chances for 1.7, but I really cannot see it at 1.0 (same retention as Rake premiere). I mean, if we exclude CW, nothing except for ABC dramas premieres at bellow 1. Then range is 1.1 to 1.6. Now real thinking starts, compatibility, buzz and whatnot. But today I'm too lazy for it, so I'll just take middle of that range, and declare it as 1.3 or 1.4.

Spot said...

Under. Getting big bomb vibes from this one.

Spot said...

Over. I think there might be some interest in a new Meloni vehicle and the other two Wonder Years-esque comedies have both exceeded expectations.

Spot said...

over

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

I'm going to say UNDER.

Viewers are quickly abandoning FOX, so I feel like no one even knows it's premiering.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Slightly over, but falls down to cancelation levels later.

Spot said...

Quick thoughts since I don't have a lot of time today (though as always, I loved reading these):

- Surviving Jack: I think it looks god and I would like to give it a chance but I am still bummed for Enlisted so I will stay away from it unless I see it working... which I don't. I don't think Idol will even crack a 2.0 and I am even less sure of how compatible this will be. Ultimately, a 1.15, in line with you.
- Friends with Better Lives: I am actually actively rooting for this show, I think it looks awesome. And unlike most people, I think it has a big upside potential as it could attract a crowd that actually doesn't have this kind of sitcom to watch at the moment. The Mother lead-in for the premiere should give it a decent shot. Still, leading out of Broke Girls will be tough. Ultimately, an optimistic 1.70 and we might even say it didn't too badly considering the circumstances... but still gets cancelled.

- Unforgettable: It's weird to preview this show since it's already been renewed. Meh, I like your logic of going a few ticks higher than repeats actually. I had it a 1.0 just because, so it's actually in line with yours.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

1.3 preliminary rating dipping to 1.2 when the finals come out (after its one tenth adjustment down from a possible American Idol one minute overrun). UNDER.

Spot said...

Flipping the script, just for the hell of it. Over.

Spot said...

Under.

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