Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Monday 3/3/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Week two of The Voice (4.5) began with only a two-tenths drop from last week and remained only a hair behind the corresponding night last spring (4.7). But The Blacklist (2.7) took a noticeable drop in its second week back, dipping well behind any other post-Voice episode.
  • While How I Met Your Mother (3.3) was down a bit more after overachieving last week vs. The Voice, the other CBS comedies 2 Broke Girls (2.6), Mike and Molly (2.2) and Mom (2.0) all rebounded by a tick.
  • ABC tried a repeat of Mixology (1.1) after a 90-minute The Bachelor (2.3), which helped Castle (1.6) find a new low.
  • And Fox's Almost Human (1.5) did not plead its case very well on finale night, limping to the end of season one at a new series low. The finals didn't help it this time, though it did narrow the gap with The Following (down to tie its 1.6 low).
  • On cable, A&E's Bates Motel (1.3) was back in solid fashion, roughly even with its series premiere and the 1.3 series high it would hit four more times later in the season. But it did not help new lead-out Those Who Kill (0.5) get off to much of a start. The night's big mover was TNT's Dallas (0.4), which completely imploded the week after a 0.75 premiere.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Bachelor 2.3 36% -8%-0.2n/a 6/10 -18% -8% -15% 2.2
Mixology (R) 1.1 38% -56% -63% 1.0
Castle 1.6 24% -6%-0.1-1.4 17/17 n/a -6% +14% 1.8
ABC:-16%-19%
How I Met Your Mother 3.3 46% -8%-0.3n/a 6/18 n/a -8% +94% 3.0
2 Broke Girls 2.6 39% +4%+0.1-0.3 11/18 n/a +4% +18% 2.2
Mike and Molly 2.2 31% +5%+0.1+0.1 9/13 n/a +5% +29% 2.1
Mom 2.0 30% +5%+0.1+0.1 11/18 n/a +5% +11% 1.9
Intelligence 1.2 28% +0%+0.0+0.1 5/9 n/a +0% -8% 1.1
CBS:+0%+25%
The Voice Mon 4.5 37% -4%-0.2n/a 2/2 n/a -4% +109% 4.2
The Blacklist 2.7 31% -13%-0.4-0.2 12/15 n/a -13% +145% 2.2
NBC:-6%+117%
Almost Human 1.5 34% -6%-0.1n/a 13/13 n/a -6% -33% 1.5
The Following 1.6 39% +0%+0.0-0.1 6/7 -43% +0% -44% 1.7
Fox:-3%-39%
Star-Crossed 0.4 45% +33%+0.1n/a 1/3 n/a +33% +0% 0.4
Beauty and the Beast 0.3 44% +0%+0.0+0.0 2/15 n/a +50% +0% 0.3
CW:+40%+0%
Big5:-6%+12%
Bates Motel 1.26 52% n/an/a
1/1 +0%


Teen Wolf 0.86 53% -1%-0.01
6/9 +8%


Switched at Birth 0.67 53% +1%+0.01
5/8 -13%


The Fosters 0.58 49% +5%+0.03
7/8 -25%


Those Who Kill 0.51 45% n/an/a
1/1 n/a


Archer 0.50 73% -17%-0.10
6/6 -55%


Dallas 0.44 29% -41%-0.31
2/2 -46%


Being Human 0.43 54% -18%-0.09
6/8 +10%


Chozen 0.28 71% -10%-0.03
6/6 n/a



KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

14 comments:

Spot said...

Cancel, obviously.

The CW will renew 1 to 3 low rated shows, because of scheduling needs. I believe there will be exactly 2 renewals out of: Hart of Dixie, The Tomorrow People, The Carrie Diaries, and The 100 (I expect 0.55 to 0.65 average not counting summer episodes). But Star-Crossed and Beauty and the Beast are out of the equation, those two are one tier lower than those already low-rated.

Scenarios:
A. 1 renewal - 5 new shows (3 for fall) + "Whose Line" on Fall schedule.
B. 2 renewals - 5 new shows (3 for fall), but "Whose Line" on the bench.
C. 3 renewals - 4 new shows (but still 3 for fall), on the bench: WLIIA + 4th new drama + 3rd renewed low-rated show (13 episodes spackle)
D. 2 renewals - 4 new shows (3 for fall), only WLLIA + 4th new drama on the bench

I believe "D" will happen. Because I think The CW will rather gamble 3 of 4 question marks (3 rookies + Reign) would hold well enough in the fall to get 22 episodes run (2 on a weekday, and the weakest one on Friday with WLIIA), than to renew 3rd low-rated show that they knew for sure it would have even worse ratings next season.
Yes, if 2 rookies would flop (or 1 + Reign), then they would face too thin bench: they'd have to put up with one bad rated show for entire 22 episodes, and put Supernatural (or whatever) repeats on Friday. But given HoD, TPP, and TCD are pretty low already, it looks like justified risk.

Spot said...

Disqus ate my comment, so let's try this again...


You could argue that The CW did a tiny favor to Star-Crossed by debuting it opposite the Olympics. With the established shows (The Bachelor and Almost Human) taking a few hits, CBS' stronger Monday comedy block hour in reruns, and people starting to tire of Sochi as evidenced by falling behind the 2010 and 2006 paces, a viewer looking for something new/different had a choice.



But it's not like The CW knew all of this when they scheduled the drama. So Star-Crossed's destiny from day one was cancellation.


And BTW, thanks Spot for giving us the demo breakdown to the hundredths for CW shows.

Spot said...

To paraphrase Mean Girls: ABC, stop trying to make Mixology happen! It's not going to happen!

Spot said...

If Mixology tanks, ABC can audible its way into a solution.

Tuesday: Agents of SHIELD / Dancing with the Stars: Results / Mind Games
Wednesday: The Middle / Suburgatory / Modern Family / The Goldbergs / Nashville



Yank underperforming Trophy Wife and burn its episodes off in the summer, give The Goldbergs a chance to see if it should move there permanently for season 2, and give Mind Games something resembling a lead-in (though at this point it wouldn't be a big help). Actually, I'd swap SHIELD and DWTS: Results to better help SHIELD in the easier 9:00 hour but that would be an additional move that ABC probably wouldn't want to do.

Spot said...

I think one Friday hour is going to be shared between Top Model and Whose Line. That other hour could then be a timeslot share between The Carrie Diaries (a known Friday quantity) and Hart of Dixie (the "veteran final season" renewal depending on how it does this season). The 100 is an interesting case because its scheduling into the early summer could mean they want to treat it a la Sleepy Hollow with shorter full seasons but irregular scheduling. If that's the case, then that really cuts against The Tomorrow People because a renewal there means there are two open slots, one of which is earmarked by Supernatural: Tribes. So in my mind TTP needs to overperform for a midseason slot if The 100 hits in its regular season eps.

Spot said...

I hope I understood you well. If you're saying:
If there will be low-rated CW show that is renewed as a 13 episodes midseason spackle, then it probably will be The 100, because of unorthodox scheduling ... then I agree. That seems like a good line of thinking, I simply didn't give it a thought until your remark.
By "low", I mean 0.50 to 0.70 at the moment CW needs to make decision because of upfronts. I think with bellow 0.5 they'd cancel it, and at 0.7+ they'd renew it for fall, that average would separate The 100 from rest of the pack, maybe even 0.65 would.

Spot said...

SHIELD has won the 18-34 male demo since its debut. I'm not sure sharing any real estate on either side of Dancing would benefit either program. Interesting scenario, nonetheless. I agree with your other suggestions though I might at least try a week or two of Trophy Wife after Modern Family just in case there is even a little spark. I think Trophy Wife is the best comedy to debut this season on any network but obviously I am a minority of one. Enjoy The Goldbergs as well but I think that show is already, more or less, a certain renewal.

Spot said...

Pretty much. History goes against TTP since The CW hasn't used a second-season show as midseason filler. Without getting into the merits of this actual schedule since I'm using this as a hypothetical, this is roughly what I was saying:


Monday: Supernatural / New Drama
Tuesday: The Originals / Supernatural: Tribes
Wednesday: Arrow / New Drama
Thursday: The Vampire Diaries / Reign
Friday: Top Model / The Carrie Diaries (13 episodes)



Midseason: The 100, Whose Line (Fridays at 8:00), Hart of Dixie (Fridays at 9:00), New Drama



That gives slots for 3 new shows (Mondays through Wednesdays at 9:00). Which I guess equals option C in your multiple-choice listing. Depending on how Reign holds up in the back-half, The CW may elect to pick-up a second drama to have two new ones in the midseason chamber.

Spot said...

That looks very similar to what I would do. But Supernatural is 9 PM show, and I think ANTM will have season finale in November again. Then, taking in account your remark about The 100 (and thus switching from my option "D" to "C"), this is what I would do:

Mon - The Tomorrow People / Supernatural
Tue - Originals / new soapy drama (Supernatural: Tribes ? )
Wed - Arrow / Flash (new genre drama)
Thu - The Vampire Diaries / Reign
Fri - Hart of Dixie / ANTM

in November
Mon: Flash / Supernatural
Wed: Arrow / new genre drama (The Messengers ? )
Fri: Hart of Dixie / The Tomorrow People
Tue & Thu same

midseason: The 100, Whose Line, 4th new drama.
HoD 11 episodes order, series finale in December. TPP and The 100 13 episodes.

I would premiere Flash behind Arrow, then in November (after 4 -5 episodes, CW starts season later) I would move it to Monday 8 PM. Thus they'd avoid all of Monday editions of The Bing Bang Theory, at least half of the Monday Night Football, and The Voice blind auditions, all of that bloodbath. And still would try to fix Monday weak spot with their strongest new show.

Spot said...

I would prefer SHIELD not have to tango with The Voice and NCIS concurrently. With SHIELD or DWTS: Results, ABC would be in third place for the 8:00 hour anyway so why not boost SHIELD's numbers in a higher HUT hour where the main competition is NCIS: LA? It's not like DWTS isn't used to rough timeslots.

Spot said...

What many moves? There's campaign late Sep / early Oct for Flash and Tribes. And there's another a month later, for move of Flash to Monday and for 3rd premiere. That's 4 moves promoted, only 1 more than in your schedule with 3 new shows promoted in September. And upside is in more focused promotion... obviously with 2+2, and not 3+0.

Not really much more dollars. Supernatural move? You have it too. And The Tomorrow People dumping to Friday needs not be promoted, that's just pity renewed show (might be The Carrie Diaries, or The 100, I have TTP in my schedule just as boilerplate, meaning "some pity renewed show, then sacrificed to TBBT / MNF / Voice combo in October").

As for reruns on Friday in late fall, I agree in principle. But that's in contradiction with your schedule. Why then you need HoD *and* TCD *and* The 100 all renewed? With those repeats planned in schedule, they surely would axe one of those. That is why I'm fine with your idea - it would mean one less show renewed not based on ratings, but on need to fill schedule somehow. They could save some costs, so, yes, they might do as you suggest.
.

Spot said...

Because ABC wanted S.H.I.E.L.D. ld to be family entertainment, so they insisted on 8 PM slot. I watched some episodes, and the show is kinda childish.
Anyway, your schedule is obviously the best solution.. but given stubbornness of ABC, I'm pretty much they'll insist on both concept and timeslot of S.H.I.E.L.D. , and only rotate comedies: Goldbergs to Wed 9:30 PM, Trophy Wife to Tue 9 PM and Mixology to Tue 9:30 PM .

Spot said...

I'm refering to midseason moves. A network that's invested in a new show is unlikely to spend months promoting it and hammering home where to find it only to move it after a few weeks. A separate Fall and Spring schedule makes some sense, but adding layers like "late Fall" aren't helpful.

As for Fridays, my general thinking was Top Model/TCD from August to November. From Thanksgiving to the new year, reruns and holiday specials. From January to May, Whose Line & Hart of Dixie. With The 100, use it again as spackle after running through another drama's episode order is up.

Spot said...

It's very possible at this point that no live-action scripted show on FOX will get more than a 1.6 for the second week running.

Where's the bubble in that situation? Does this make Mindy Project suddenly one of FOX's most valuable scripted properties because at least its pitiful audience has the right people in it? Does FOX basically hit the reset button and air Utopia three nights a week or something? At this point I really don't know how they can do worse than this. Although some of the shows ordered without a pilot might well end up doing just that.

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