Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Monday 3/17/14

  • It looks like the stabilization of Dancing with the Stars in the fall was not just a one-season wonder, as the show had a pretty good spring premiere with 14.98 million viewers and a 2.6 A18-49 rating. This was well below the last two premieres (not opposite The Voice) but actually a tick above the last one that did face The Voice in fall 2012.
  • DWTS' return had no impact on The Voice (4.1), which bounced back from a down night against The Bachelor's finale last week. But it seemed to mow down the older-skewing scripted shows in its path, just like it always did when it was much bigger. 2 Broke Girls (2.2) and Mom (1.8) hit new series lows, while Mike and Molly (1.8) tied the low set last week following a 2BG repeat. Fox's big drop from Bones (1.4) was even more brutal, with The Following (1.4) also down another tick.
  • It may not mean much, but the CW's The Tomorrow People (0.4) held up OK in its move to Monday. It technically tied the last original after Arrow, but that was its first 0.4, so this is closer to what would be expected based on its usual 0.5 level.
  • Cable: what in the world is going on with Bates Motel (0.72)? After a roughly steady season premiere, week two dropped 28% and was down by the same amount vs. week two of last year. And now week three, down another 21%, and now 39% below week three of season one! After extremely steady ratings for a season and an episode, it's all come crashing down for this show.


A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Dancing with the Stars 2.6 21% n/an/an/a 1/1 -19% -21% -17% 2.8
Castle 1.8 23% +13%+0.2+1.5 14/18 -18% -53% -18% 1.7
How I Met Your Mother 2.9 47% +7%+0.2n/a 17/20 -3% +7% -3% 2.9
2 Broke Girls 2.2 39% -15%-0.4-0.4 19/19 -21% +69% -4% 2.1
Mike and Molly 1.8 30% +0%+0.0+0.9 14/15 -25% +0% -36% 2.0
Mom 1.8 32% -10%-0.2-0.4 19/19 n/a +38% -25% 2.0
Intelligence 1.1 26% -15%-0.2+0.5 10/11 n/a -15% -48% 1.2
The Voice Mon 4.1 39% +11%+0.4n/a 3/4 n/a +11% +55% 4.2
The Blacklist 2.7 31% +0%+0.0-0.4 12/16 n/a +0% +125% 2.5
Bones 1.4 32% -18%-0.3n/a 16/17 -33% -18% -33% 1.5
The Following 1.4 45% -7%-0.1-0.3 9/9 -44% -7% -43% 1.7
Star-Crossed 0.3 38% +0%+0.0n/a 3/5 n/a +0% -33% 0.3
The Tomorrow People 0.4 43% +0%+0.0-0.4 15/16 n/a +100% +100% 0.5
Teen Wolf 0.81 51% +4%+0.03
8/11 -1%

Bates Motel 0.72 50% -21%-0.19
3/3 -39%

Switched at Birth 0.53 57% -11%-0.07
10/10 -30%

Being Human 0.49 55% -2%-0.01
4/10 +13%

Dallas 0.47 33% +16%+0.07
2/4 -38%

The Fosters 0.45 47% -14%-0.07
10/10 -44%

Archer 0.44 62% -29%-0.18
8/8 -53%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.


Spot said...

The most interesting part of Monday in April/May will be how much CBS collapses without HIMYM...

Spot said...

So Bones on Monday is now rating lower than it did during its brief Friday run average. Yes, there's the DST effect, much more competition, etc. Still, that's not great. At this rate I wouldn't be surprised to see a Masterchef Jr/Bones combo on Fridays next season so Sleepy Hollow is paired with Fox's hottest freshman drama.

Spot said...

With every new day things seems brighter for Hart of Dixie. I think it's safe now, only episode count being in question. And if it happens to be 13- after all, or The 100 flops, The Carrie Diaries might resurrect.

Spot said...

That should be Gotham, if episodes are produced in time for the fall.

Strange, I thought you had Supernatural / Flash on your provisional Monday schedule (i have it Flash / Supernatural) exactly because of Gotham.

Spot said...

I don't think Gotham should be up against Monday Night Football. There is a reason why Arrow and Shield are on Tuesday and Wednesday. I would place Gotham on Wednesdays. Sleepy Hollow can be paired with Hieroglyph. At midseason, Gracepoint can take over Hieroglyph and pair up with The Following and Backstorm can take Thursdays after Idol.

Spot said...

It will look so ugly. 2 Broke Girls is hitting 2.1 with the Mother lead-in, what will it do without it?! Also, what will they even air at 10pm when Intelligence finishes up its order in two weeks?

Spot said...

CBS post-Mother are looking uglier than I predict, especially after another low for 2BG, this show won't stand for itself and it will be a bottom of the hour forever.

The Voice is killing all the other networks, once it goes up, everyone sees new lows.

Spot said...

My main point on The CW Mondays next season is that the network should treat it like The CW Tuesdays this season: planted spin-off and Supernatural. I don't think the scheduling order necessarily matters, but between the two brewing spin-offs I'd put Flash here and Supernatural: Tribes on Tuesday or Wednesday if both are picked up; I'm leaning more to Wednesday right now because maybe pre-Supernatural tune-in is a thing for Arrow. But I agree with the thought that if Gotham is picked up, The CW should move Flash to stay out of its way.

I'm not following Fox's development cycle as closely right now because I think they are the biggest wildcard in what they pick up thanks to The X-Factor being canceled. Given that the network has shown it's not afraid of picking up a sheer tonnage of shows for a new season (including pre-canceled/"burn off" shows - 2012-2013: The Mob Doctor, The Mindy Project, Ben & Kate, The Following, The Goodwin Games vs. 2013-2014: Sleepy Hollow, Dads, Brooklyn Nine-Nine, Almost Human, Masterchef Jr., Enlisted, Almost Human, Surviving Jack, Us & Them, Murder Police, Cosmos, Rake, Gang Related, 24: Live Another Day, Wayward Pines) who knows how they go? Yes, Idol makes it feel more likely that the Fall sees more reality shows on Wednesday and Thursday. But The Following and Sleepy Hollow could be the beginning of a trend: limited-run seasons of 15 episodes or less, which is approximately how many weeks Fox needs to fill until Idol returns (assuming only one World Series game per night and going dark during Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Years).

Spot said...

FOX has already announced that next year they plan on airing the entire 13 episodes of Sleepy Hollow in the fall, so I don't see why the same wouldn't be possible for Gotham. If you take out one Wednesday for baseball and if you start a week earlier as FOX usually does, then all it would takes would be a 2 hour finale or premiere, which is doable. I also think that Gotham should appeal to a younger skewing crowd than CM, so I wouldn't be too worried about that one. Modern Family is indeed a problem, but I think a drama would have a decentish shot there. Wildcard is NBC though. I think they will keep the night Dick Wolf but there is a small chance The Blacklist ends up here, in which case I wouldn't place Gotham here.

Regardless, FOX schedule is like a puzzle to solve. We know most of the pieces, but it's actually hard to figure out what to put where. IMO, it will be something like:
- Bones: 22 hours
- The Following: 15 hours
- Sleepy Hollow: 13 hours
- Gotham: 13 hours
- Gracepoint: 10 hours
- Hieroglyph: 13 hours
- Backstorm: 13 hours
- American Idol
- Utopia: who knows how many hours... I would say probably something between 13 and 26
- Comedies (New Girl,The Mindy Project, B99, Mulany, The Weird Loners)
- Masterchef Jr: probably 13 hours I would guess
- Another Ramsay show that is bound to show up later in the year: probably 13 hours

Still, I think they need one more show, whether it's Almost Human or not. If Bones goes to Fridays and if Utopia has one hour only, I don't see how they don't need to use Almost Human.

I challenge anyone to make a fall-spring FOX schedule.It's quite hard!

Spot said...

No, it's rather easy because of they order series early now.

Mon 8 PM: Hieroglyph / midseason Gotham (or other way around)
Mon 9 PM: Sleepy Hollow / midseason The Following
Tue: B99 / newbie / New Girl / Mindy
midseason: B99 dumped to Friday or Saturday burn off, TMP maybe too, but still 4 comedies
Wed / Thu: Glee + 3 hours of reality Dream Date 1 hour (but 2 hours for premiere and finale) + Utopia 2 hours (but some weeks 1 hour obviously)
November: Gracepoint + Glee + Dream Date + Utopia, each 1 hour
midseason: Idol 3 hours + Backstrom
Friday: MasterChef Junior / Bones
midseason: Glee / Bones

Spot said...

TBBT: 4.9, HIMYM: 2.9, Millers: 2.4, Men: 2.4, 2BG: 2.1, M&M: 1.8, Mom: 1.8, TCO: 1.8

CBS Thursday comes out as the clear winner when the Voice is around. 2.88 to a 2.15

Even if factor out the first comedy of both blocks it goes 2.2 to 1.9

Amazing compared to when they had a block with going 3.8, 3.0, 2.7, 2.4 before the Voice returned

Spot said...

Supernatural: Tribes project is recently renamed to Supernatural: Bloodlines.

It won't air at Wednesday - it's a girly show, so it wouldn't be compatible with Arrow. It has much more in common with The Originals, than it has with original Supernatural. So I think it's paired with The Originals, but might also get Thursday 9 PM slot. Anyway, not paired with Arrow, or Supernatural, that I'm pretty much sure.

Spot said...

I actually like their twist with the switching partners bit (even though I don't watch the show). I think it will get a 2.5

Word for word my prediction.

Spot said...

In DWTS's favor is it's the only ballroom dancing competition program on television. Older skewing for sure but it attracts enough of the key demo to still be a very valuable asset to ABC. The changes in the results show and the frequent tweaking of the format have paid off, I would conclude.

As much as I rail against singing competition shows and all their cheesy manipulation, I'm most interested in ABC's new summer premier of Rising Star and its usage of real time viewer voting to kick a contestant out of the competition. I don't know logistically how ABC has worked around the obvious time zone challenges in the US (unlike this mega hit show's home country of origin, Israel, with only one time zone). I assume, maybe incorrectly, that Twitter (and perhaps Facebook's new messaging component) and/or a specially designed ABC website might play a starring role in Rising Star (along with lots of web page banner advertising, of course, surrounding those contestant voting boxes allowing them to "live" or "die"). The marriage of social media and live television has been talked about for a long time but never really implemented or exploited on a large scale other than live tweets commenting about what someone is currently watching. I could see this same feature ultimately being incorporated into DWTS and other reality competitions. It would certainly serve to keep viewers actively engaged in the live program and might even attract a more youthful demo advertisers crave.

Any thoughts, my spotted friends?

Spot said...

During Season 5, contestants were saved or eliminated from the voice based on twitter votes in a feature called twitter save. So what you are saying that ABC will do is not really innovative if I understood it correctly. It would be nice for it to hit for them even moderately. I could see it being a good Thursday filler for the hiatuses of GA and Scandal.

Spot said...

The easiest way for this to work would be to make Rising Star a 10:00 PM show (Sundays? Wednesdays?) because it comes closest to hitting primetime for most of the country. Combine that with a very heavy emphasis on the social media part especially for the West Coast.

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