Friday, March 21, 2014

First Two Weeks, Resurrection




WEEK ONE
There have been several sizable series premiere ratings this season, but Resurrection was the biggest surprise of them all. It opened on March 9 with a whooping 13.90 million viewers and a 3.8 demo rating, absolutely crushing everything else on broadcast including the premiere of Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey (2.1). And it pulled this off in the biggest hour of the week for cable originals; the competish this week included The Walking Dead (6.3) and the spiking finale of True Detective (1.6).

WEEK TWO
The second episode dropped 18% to a 3.1 demo. This is a fairly standard week two drop, and when you start that big, anything near the week two standard is a very good thing.

PROGNOSIS
Someone who's usually in the know on these things says season one was limited to eight episodes due to behind-the-scenes issues. That's not a great sign about its long-term future, but it definitely makes this short-term prediction easier. It's really hard to see this falling from "surprise hit of the season" all the way to "bubble" in just six more weeks, especially considering it only has to face The Walking Dead for two more of those six weeks. I could envision a scenario where the show is a bit above the bubble ratings-wise and ABC does away with it because the trajectory is so negative. But even that feels like a really extreme case. Renew.

"First Two Weeks" is an ongoing experiment to see how often a new scripted show's fate can be predicted by the very earliest data. Here are the picks and lineups for every show this season.

8 comments:

Spot said...

Also making Resurrection's premiere more impressive: it happened on the first day of DST.

Spot said...

Definitely a renew. I'm still a little upset ABC didn't decide to air RESSURECTION of all things on Easter Sunday. It's not like people Easter has anything to do with Resurrections

Spot said...

Well, I recognize its after the fact but I thought Resurrection had a strong chance of premiering really big in spite of all the competition and daylight savings time. As I've posted before, the conceit of loved ones returning to life (with all their flesh and appendages intact and not hungry to dine on their family and friends) obviously resonates with many people. ABC, to their credit, marketed Resurrection like the network's life (or maybe just Paul Lee"s) depended on it. I've not seen a marketing blitz like this (at least from ABC) since the premiers of LOST and Desperate Housewives (when ABC went as far as printing the Housewives logo on dry cleaning bags). Whether premiering this during the Spring just prior to Easter, the time of rebirth (and resurrection for Christians) was intentional or not, the timing can't hurt (but not sure if it helped any). Not sure what to think of the purported "behind the scenes issues" and its supposed effect on shortening Resurrection's episode order. My guess is that ABC recognized this as a potent series and was tentative going in, attempting to strike the right balance between the potential sinister fantasy/horror elements and a potential hopeful religious tone right out of the gate without quickly alienating both camps. As the story arc unfolds, Resurrection, at some point, will have to pick either a more sinister or hopeful explanation for these resurrections and that's when it should start to get interesting for ABC and Resurrection's long term future.

Spot said...

Renew unless it colapses.


Also, a renewal that means cancel for Nashville.

Spot said...

Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't Easter historically had some impact on the ratings?

Spot said...

Historically, yes. But last year March 31st: The Bible finale earned its first 3 since the premiere, The Walking Dead hit a series high 6.4, and Game of Thrones premiered to a series high. The only original broadcast was Revenge, which hit its second lowest rating, but it did have a repeat lead in.

Spot said...

And if it was already headed for a short first run for that reason, they realised that this could be a show that could really launch well out of an Oscars promotional blitz?

Spot said...

Well, that kinda proves my point, though - the broadcasters fled the slot for fear of ratings drops, which allowed the big cable stuff to absorb the audience that was available. 12 points across three shows isn't that much to take up even if the night as a whole was ten-fifteen percent off its usual (incredibly high) PUT numbers.

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