Tuesday, March 11, 2014

First Two Weeks, Mind Games

Unlike with the slot's last occupant, ABC made at least some token effort to help the premiere of Mind Games, scheduling a special two-hour The Bachelor to lead in. Unfortunately, it was not of enough assistance to give Mind Games any real shot out of the gate. The Bachelor averaged a 2.5 demo (including a 2.6 at 9:30), but Mind Games averaged just a 1.1, losing well over half of that demo audience.

I guess you know it's just not your year in a timeslot when you have two different shows drop by 45% or more in week two. In Mind Games' case, that took it down to a horrific 0.6. Of course, in this case it was largely about lead-in; that Bachelor episode went away in favor of a new series low episode of Trophy Wife (0.8). I don't have the final True numbers yet, but the preliminaries suggest this was actually probably about a normal drop once you account for that. For whatever that's worth.

Cancel. Somehow it hasn't happened yet, and I happen to think tonight at 10/9c would've been a nice spot for an encore of Resurrection's premiere. Get ready to dust off those Shark Tank repeats again, ABC.

"First Two Weeks" is an ongoing experiment to see how often a new scripted show's fate can be predicted by the very earliest data. Here are the picks and lineups for every show this season.


Spot said...

I make a 1.1 - 0.6 drop 45%, but these are all at numbers so bad that it's entirely irrelevant!

Spot said...

This is probably a rounding thing. If Spot is using the hundredths that we don't normally see and/or is rounding as he goes, it's going to influence the final calculations. However, your larger point that it's irrelevant is still right. :-)

Spot said...

Mind Games may play out an extra episode or two simply because ABC is not going to want to play out the final two months of the season with reruns, even though they'd probably rate the same or, in the case of Shark Tank, better. Probably an optics thing both for the network and the affiliates with their 11:00 local news. At some point, though, either Shark Tank repeats or What Would You Do (if that's still in production) should just come in here to limp to the finish line

After the end of the season, I think it'd be interesting to see how many hours ABC had original content here. So far this year I can only think of the following:

Two episodes of Lucky 7
The David Blaine: Magic is Real special
The fall season finale of Dancing with the Stars
Six episodes of Killer Women

Spot said...

To add to irrelevant nitpicking: I think ratings were 1.05 and 0.64, thus week 2 drop being "only" 39%.

Trophy Wife takes another trophy. Obviously, none of the shows ABC tried at Tuesday 10 PM wouldn't live long no matter which lead-in those would get. But to give it lead-in that is currently worse than Neighbors do on Friday.... what's wrong with those people at ABC?

Yes, it wouldn't be a bad idea to try with repeats of Resurrection on Tuesday 10 PM, while it's hot? For next few weeks, and then go from there.

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