Wednesday, March 26, 2014

The True Top 25, Week Ending 3/23/14 (2013-14 Week 26)

With The Big Bang Theory and Modern Family both taking the week off, it was all about The Voice in this week's True Top 25. Its Monday and Tuesday episodes were the only things to break a 3.0 demo rating in broadcast primetime all week (excluding the NCAA basketball overrun on Sunday). Scandal and How I Met Your Mother tied as the top scripted program at 2.9, with Scandal narrowly inching ahead in True. Shark Tank and 20/20 represented Friday night as usual, while Saturday's basketball game also made the cut. And The Blacklist, Resurrection and Mom were the three new shows on the list this week.

Rank Name True A18-49 ARank
1The Voice Mon4.254.11
2The Voice Tue4.003.62
4How I Met Your Mother3.122.93
6Grey's Anatomy2.902.49
7Dancing with the Stars2.812.66
8NCAA Basketball (Sat)2.772.212
10Shark Tank2.712.117
11American Idol Wed2.502.212
12The Blacklist2.482.75
13American Idol Thu2.362.020
14Criminal Minds2.292.212
15Once Upon a Time2.272.117
16Family Guy2.262.212
19NCIS: Los Angeles2.222.311
20Hell's Kitchen2.201.825
21Modern Family (R)2.181.825
232 Broke Girls2.132.212
24Chicago Fire2.061.923

Missing the True Top 25 but in the A18-49 list: The Simpsons (t-#23 in A18-49, #26 in True), Mike and Molly (t-#25 in A18-49, #28 in True), 60 Minutes (t-#20 in A18-49, #32 in True), About a Boy (t-#17 in A18-49, #38 in True), The Amazing Race (t-#25 in A18-49, #40 in True) and Growing Up Fisher (t-#25 in A18-49, #43 in True).

For more on the True Top 25, click to expand.
I created the True number so I could have an objective way of comparing shows across vastly different situations. One of the most fun comparisons to be made is among the biggest shows on TV. What's really the strongest show in a vacuum? Hence the weekly feature the True Top 25. This will compare shows while accounting for everything so we can see who Truly comes out on top. I include both the A18-49 and the weekly ranking in A18-49 so you can see the changes within the rankings that True Strength makes.

The A18-49 rankings aren't based on Nielsen's "official" broadcast top 25. They're derived from my own spreadsheet just using the big-five networks, so none of the big players on Univision are included. I've also weeded out some weird programming like NFL overruns and sports pre-game shows. Most of that stuff airs largely out of primetime or is strangely split apart, so I don't want to muddle the list with that.

As mentioned on the sports SpotVault pages, True Strengths for sporting events are based on the primetime portion only. Perhaps in future editions I'll try to get the primetime portion only A18-49 into the A18-49 rankings so it'll be a totally fair comparison.


Spot said...

Amazing that Once Upon a Time out trued Ressurection. There must have been massive viewing levels in that hour

Spot said...

4 news Magazines in a single night equaling 5 hours of programming. Plus a repeat of a Marvel documentary. No wonder Nightline Prime is flopping, I bet a lot of people who would watch it are watching Dateline before switching to 20/20 or 48 Hours

Spot said...

My guess is that Resurrection gets dinged a little bit by having Once Upon a Time as its lead-in. OUAT had to the heavy lifting out of a weak AFV lead-in that's not very compatible (i.e. older-skewing), while Resurrection already had a solid base.

Spot said...

Scandal finally got a turn as the Truly biggest scripted show for a week. More impressive, though, is Dancing with the Stars' True rank. The show's premiere was only a few ticks off compared against the Fall 2013 and Spring 2013 cycles.

Spot said...

A significant part of it is what Chris said, but the viewing estimate was also quite high this week. A lot of stuff had very low shares (Cosmos was a 1.7/4, Res a 2.5/6), bumping up the estimate. It may be a bit exaggerated beyond what the "true" viewing was.

Spot said...

Yes, in ideal world. But what if veteran, namely Hart of Dixie is on 0.4 A18-49 (and if affiliate are interesting in W18-34, at 0.54 W18-34)? The best they can do renew it for short final season to get some quick bucks from Netflix.

I mean, there must be some threshold of weekly average ratings affiliates are willing to swallow. And that must be above those HoD numbers. And each year CW was/is forced to renew one or more such a shows, because they want to limit fall premieres to 3.

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