Friday, March 21, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 3/20/14

  • CBS' regular lineup took its usual step aside in late March so CBS could cover the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament (1.0 for the first game, 1.3 for the second, making the combo down about 20% from last year's 1.8/1.2 opening Thursday). The ratings on CBS have gotten massively lower since an agreement with Turner spread the coverage across four networks, but it surprises me that there's not even a whiff of scheduling favoritism toward CBS in this arrangement. You could really argue they had the worst double-header of any of the four networks (though their second game ended up being quite good).  Anyway, these ratings were lower not just than CBS' regular lineup, but than repeats of their regular lineup.
  • With CBS scripted out of the mix, most scripted programs on other networks were even to up a tick. The CW's Reign bounced back to that strong 0.7 it last scored after an original The Vampire Diaries (1.1). Still early, but we could end up with an interesting race between Reign and The 100 to stay on the fall weeknight sked.
  • The only network that got nicked, as usual of late, was Fox, though it wasn't as bad after finals. Hell's Kitchen (1.8) was down 10% in week two and American Idol (2.0) has to wait at least another week for its first sub-2.0 rating.
  • There was some demand last week for a Question about whether tonight's original CW lineup (Whose Line Is It Anyway?/Hart of Dixie) can beat Fox's Rake/Enlisted/Raising Hope. Enlisted is a repeat, but it has repeated "well" so I don't see this bringing the network average down a full tenth. My snap instinct says they will tie at 0.5, but I don't feel like agonizing over the ±0.05 on something so low-rated, so I will just throw it out here as an informal discussion prompt rather than a formal Question. Who ya got, Fox, CDub or tie?


A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Once Upon a Time in Wonderland 0.8 29% +0%+0.0n/a 9/11 n/a +0% -53% 1.0
Grey's Anatomy 2.4 38% +4%+0.1+0.0 13/15 -20% +4% -19% 2.9
Scandal 2.9 41% +4%+0.1+0.1 7/14 +7% +4% +7% 3.2
NCAA Basketball 1.0 33% n/an/an/a 1/1 -44% -73% -51% 1.3
NCAA Basketball 1.3 45% +30%+0.3n/a 1/2 +9% -31% -5% 1.7
Community 1.1 42% +10%+0.1n/a 3/9 +0% +10% +0% 1.4
Parks and Recreation 1.2 50% +0%+0.0+0.1 6/14 n/a +0% +33% 1.7
Hollywood Game Night (R) 0.9 40% -10% +0% 1.2
Parenthood 1.3 39% +8%+0.1-0.1 3/18 n/a +8% +24% 1.7
Hell's Kitchen 1.8 43% -10%-0.2n/a 2/2 -10% -10% -38% 2.3
American Idol Thu 2.0 30% -9%-0.2-0.2 10/10 -31% -9% +0% 2.4
The Vampire Diaries 1.1 61% +10%+0.1n/a 8/16 -15% +267% -15% 1.4
Reign 0.7 55% +40%+0.2+0.8 2/15 n/a +40% +17% 0.7

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.


Spot said...

I have no idea, but i hope CDub wins, because it would be funny. CW in overtime? Like, 0.47 to 0.46.

With no The Big Bang Theory or Idol (yeah, I know, but still) in the half hour, Community can't do better than 1.1? As much I would personally hate it's cancelled (now that show's back on track with new old showrunner), it seems it's time to say goodbye.

Spot said...

Community got exactly the same rating on this night last year.

Spot said...

If I could take it out to the hundredths I would probably favor CW by at least a couple hundredths, but I'm not sure that would've been possible to put together (Futon will probably not post the rating for the Enlisted (R)).

Spot said...

No mention of ABC especially "Scandal"?

Spot said...

I'd guess that CBS's financial stake is smaller than the combined Turner networks, which makes sense with the piles of money they've been raking in from retrans fees. So with less purchasing power, as it were, CBS is more likely to air airball-level games.

As for the unofficial question: all the basketball competition is probably going to ding Fox more than The CW, as much as it's possible to ding something as low-rated as Rake. So I'd have to take The CW solely based on the how strong Whose Line has repeated even though by now these eps have probably aired 3 or 4 times. And here's my sure-to-be-nutbar-optimistic breakdown guess.

Fox: Average .045
Rake: 0.4
Enlisted (R): 0.5
Raising Hope: 0.5

The CW: Average .055
Whose Line: 0.6
Whose Line: 0.8
Hart of Dixie: 0.4

Spot said...

Well it did practically the same as last week, so there's no excitement there.

As for the actual original post, I don't plan to see Reign or 100 but I don't see why it can't be both to return as CW isn't exactly bursting with hits.

Spot said...

CW this week
1.6 W18-34 The Vampire Diaries (preliminary)
0.90 A18-49 The 100
0.9 W18-34 The Originals
0.9 W18-34 Reign (preliminary)
0.85 A18-49 Supernatural
0.82 A18-49 Arrow
0.41 A18-49 The Tomorrow People
0.3 W18-34 Star-Crossed

Very tight from 2nd to 6th place. But season to date is:
1.62 W18-34 - The Vampire Diaries (16 eps)
1.18 W18-34 - The Originals (17 eps)
1.04 A18-49 - Supernatural (16 eps)
0.97 A18-49 - Arrow (16 eps)
0.81 W18-34 - Reign (15 eps)
0.59 A18-49 - The Tomorrow People (16 eps)
0.54 W18-34 - Hart of Dixie (13 eps)
0.50 W18-34 - The Carrie Diaries (13 eps)
0.38 W18-34 - Beauty and the Beast (16 eps)
0.34 W18-34 - Star-Crossed (5 eps)

The Originals is clearly the best performer out of that bunch behind TVD, and Reign the bottom one. As for The 100, it's due to go down somewhat over next few weeks until it settles. But it's too early to tell anything:
If it holds unusually well over next few episodes, then it could push Reign to Friday.
If it holds extremely bad, then it could even be cancelled.
But the usual drop over first few weeks would land it in the territory bellow Reign, but still well above those at-best-pity-renewal shows with bellow 0.6 average. In that case, I like idea Chris L mentioned = CW ordering short season of The 100 again, and this time as a midseason spackle. That would be in line with CW ordering only 6 pilots this cycle (so probably only 4 new shows) - The 100 would serve as a backup instead of usual 5th new show.

Spot said...

If The CW renews both and wants to premiere 3 new shows in fall then a show needs to be pushed to Friday or held until mid-season.

Spot said...

Oh, not even a question dedicated exclusively to the CW lineup then? That's disappointing!

Spot said...

Silvio, for curiosity's sake, where do you find W18-34 demo ratings? You post them all the time.

Spot said...

Final ratings W18-34 and A18-34 - all networks: SonOfTheBronx on Berman's forum. He posts it for each day, but not each day. For example, today he posted finals for Sat, Sun, Mon, Tue, Wed.
He's posting it for months now. Unfortunately, he didn't started exactly at start of the regular season start. Plus I didn't found any ratings for previous seasons.

Futon Critic publishes preliminary W18-34 ratings, but only for CW. They do it for years.

Networks' press releases sometimes post preliminary W18-34. Of course, only when actual number is good (generally or w2w), you know how they do does releases.

Spot said...

CW wins this low-rated showdown.

I'm amused of how bad thurdays at 8 PM are without TBBT, Community finished second despite its 1.1 rating.

Spot said...

Community and Parks and Rec are skewing a full 10% older than last season. Weird

Spot said...

I don't follow college b-ball. In fact the only knowledge I have is that both you and my brother-in-law both root for UNC, and that Fox Sports 1 took a hosing w/ their Big East contract.

So, when you talk bad, is that in reference to the teams themselves and their (lack of) national appeal, or was it all about the first game being a giant blowout?

Spot said...

The teams themselves. But it doesn't help that there was a big blowout on Thursday (and again on Friday).

Spot said...

Ok, thanks.

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