Sunday, March 9, 2014

The Question, Sunday 3/9/14: Will Resurrection and Cosmos Bring Their Networks Back to Life?


This Sunday sees a head-to-head premiere duel between two of midseason's biggest promotional darlings. The drama Resurrection got a ton of Academy Awards play and is incredibly high-stakes for ABC, potentially Paul Lee's last stand after a development season of disappointments and many a mega-bomb. And Fox's Seth MacFarlane documentary effort Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey came out of nowhere to get major promo during the Super Bowl. Both have OK but not great lead-in situations; Resurrection leads out of the respectable but fading Once Upon a Time franchise, while Cosmos will have the decent-rated but likely incompatible animated comedies. However, these concepts are unique enough that they may bring their own audiences. (Expensive science documentaries like Planet Earth and Life have certainly done so in the fairly recent past.)

For me, the issue coming into tonight is not who wins between ABC and Fox. It's whether there's any winner. If both shows bomb, I don't care who bombs less. So here's how this game works. "Over" wins if EITHER Resurrection OR Cosmos goes over the line, while "under" wins if NEITHER one goes over.

Highest Rating Among Resurrection AND Cosmos (Fox airing only) Over/Under: 2.25.

27 comments:

Spot said...

Over. I think Resurrection will get a 2.3.

Spot said...

Over. Seth MacFarlane is mentioned in every ad and it airs after Family Guy. I think it shall do well. I'm watching Ressurection and I've never seen Once or Revenge. I know several others in the same situation. I think it will have enough intital interest to break the barrier

Spot said...

Under. I say Cosmos just barely cracks a 2.0, and Resurrection disappoints with a 1.6.

I could see one of there two surprising me (more likely Cosmos).

Spot said...

Over. No focus on either show individually but I don't think the bar is set too high so I'm betting on at least one doing it.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Science vs religion in America. Perfect example. Will people choose to learn the way the world and nature truly works, or be entertained by a religious based theme. We'll see! I'm betting more Americans watch Resurrection. Hope America proves me wrong.

Spot said...

Over... I think at least Cosmos will be able to beat that line for the premiere

Spot said...

I was expecting a lower line than that - and to go under with it!

So at 2.25, it's an unflinching Under. The timeslot is brutal.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Resurrection - 2.4
Cosmos - 1.8


Over

Spot said...

I believe Ressurection will get a 1.9, while Cosmos will get a 1.6, and that equals 3.5, so Over.

Spot said...

While I get your point about the CW, I think they are doing it this way because they probably have some serious hope that this pairing can become a long term solution for Fridays (At least the Whose Line part, but Hart of Dixie for next year too), whereas they would be simply plugging a hole on Mondays. Sure, they might loose a couple of tenths in the process, but if it is the beginning of something on Fridays, I think it's worth it.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

So many factors to take into account. Cable opposition, competing against eachother, simulcasts on all fox cable channels, perhaps incompatible lead ins, novelish premises, Seth McFarlane name recognition working for and against Cosmos, Resurrection being too similar namewise and premisewise to Les Revenents/The Returned (the pilot is even called The Returned!).

Ultimately I'll go with over. With Cosmos beating the line being more likely.

Spot said...

Under.
If my entry is not too late.

Spot said...

Eric, it's not a "cumulative" question, it's whether either show can break the line.

Spot said...

Under. I just don't see how either show breaks the line.

Spot said...

I'll say Under, though I'm not really confident. Walking Dead will take precedence in most eyes, but there could be a lot of DVR interest.


Resurrection: 1.8
Cosmos: 2.0

Spot said...

Paul Lee has really made it difficult to be optimistic for any new ABC drama this season. So this is mostly about Cosmos for me. Given that we only have to be right once while you have to be right twice, I feel like the math says over.


Over.

Spot said...

I know. I'm just saying my predictions for both shows for people interested for both of the shows. I never meant it to be cumulative.

Spot said...

Not taking sides but that's a specious comparison. Cosmos is an educational science documentary and Resurrection is an escapist, science fiction/fantasy drama. One informs and the other entertains. Other than a religious sounding title describing people coming back from the dead, Resurrection contains no overt religious message any more than The Walking Dead.

Spot said...

OK. Probability-wise, I should pick Over because it's more likely that one goes over than both going under. But I doubt OUAT will come back above a 2.3, and I think it's really unlikely Resurrection holds 100% of its lead-in. Cosmos is the real wild card. My gut says that the difference between this and Planet Earth or Life is people expect something like this from Discovery or PBS, not FOX. This is an interesting test of how much brand matters. I'm also curious if the simulcast hurts it.


UNDER

Spot said...

Actually it's about 30%. (0.7 * 0.7 = 0.49)

Spot said...

Sitcoms online is reporting that Ressurection scored a huge 4.1 on top25
markets. If that even remotely holds in finals, it will be the biggest
shock of the season for me... Just wow!

Spot said...

I don't think I'd have predicted a 4.1 even in households, let alone 18-49. Sure, they promoted it well in the closest they get to airing a Super Bowl, but even the big game itself has done nothing for anything since The Voice... I guess a big promotional push like that makes most sense for a series premiere to get sampling.

Though bizarrely, such a big launch could be *bad* news for ABC if it keeps Paul Lee in the post and then the show collapses :p

Spot said...

I agree! It's obviously good that they have a hit but but Paul Lee needs to go no matter what!

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